Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Accelerating mid-level flow associated with an approaching 500 mb jet max will overspread the central Rockies, into the central High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This will promote stronger downslope west-northwest surface winds across portions of the central High Plains and adjacent front range areas. Although temperatures will be cooler owing to a post-frontal air mass, afternoon relative humidity is likely to fall to around 10 percent in a few locations. The dry air mass coupled with gusty winds and dry fuels is expected to generate Critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Wyoming extending southeastward into far northwestern Kansas. In addition, stronger northwest surface winds and relative humidity falling to the 20 to 30 percent range combined with sufficient available dry, fine fuels are expected tomorrow as well across a broad area from southeastern Montana into portions of South Dakota and far northwestern Iowa. Therefore, Elevated highlights were introduced to cover the heightened wildfire spread potential. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the central U.S., with an embedded 500 mb speed max poised to overspread the central Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). As surface high pressure builds over the northern Rockies, downslope flow across the central High Plains will promote another day of dry/windy conditions. 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface flow amid 20 percent RH will overspread dry fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Elsewhere across the central and southern High Plains, modestly dry and breezy conditions may develop and overspread fuels that have recently experienced appreciable precipitation accumulations, with no fire weather highlights introduced at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...20z Update... No changes in forecast reasoning since the prior Outlook. The cold front will continue to spread south-southeastward across southern Florida, with thunderstorms increasingly relegated to the far southeast part of the Peninsula, Keys, and Florida Straits. ..Guyer.. 04/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...South Florida/Keys... A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will approach the region later tonight. But with the front having progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe risk) over land should remain very low. ...North-central High Plains.. A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...20z Update... No changes in forecast reasoning since the prior Outlook. The cold front will continue to spread south-southeastward across southern Florida, with thunderstorms increasingly relegated to the far southeast part of the Peninsula, Keys, and Florida Straits. ..Guyer.. 04/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...South Florida/Keys... A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will approach the region later tonight. But with the front having progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe risk) over land should remain very low. ...North-central High Plains.. A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...20z Update... No changes in forecast reasoning since the prior Outlook. The cold front will continue to spread south-southeastward across southern Florida, with thunderstorms increasingly relegated to the far southeast part of the Peninsula, Keys, and Florida Straits. ..Guyer.. 04/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...South Florida/Keys... A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will approach the region later tonight. But with the front having progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe risk) over land should remain very low. ...North-central High Plains.. A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...20z Update... No changes in forecast reasoning since the prior Outlook. The cold front will continue to spread south-southeastward across southern Florida, with thunderstorms increasingly relegated to the far southeast part of the Peninsula, Keys, and Florida Straits. ..Guyer.. 04/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...South Florida/Keys... A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will approach the region later tonight. But with the front having progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe risk) over land should remain very low. ...North-central High Plains.. A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...20z Update... No changes in forecast reasoning since the prior Outlook. The cold front will continue to spread south-southeastward across southern Florida, with thunderstorms increasingly relegated to the far southeast part of the Peninsula, Keys, and Florida Straits. ..Guyer.. 04/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...South Florida/Keys... A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will approach the region later tonight. But with the front having progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe risk) over land should remain very low. ...North-central High Plains.. A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...20z Update... No changes in forecast reasoning since the prior Outlook. The cold front will continue to spread south-southeastward across southern Florida, with thunderstorms increasingly relegated to the far southeast part of the Peninsula, Keys, and Florida Straits. ..Guyer.. 04/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...South Florida/Keys... A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will approach the region later tonight. But with the front having progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe risk) over land should remain very low. ...North-central High Plains.. A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...20z Update... No changes in forecast reasoning since the prior Outlook. The cold front will continue to spread south-southeastward across southern Florida, with thunderstorms increasingly relegated to the far southeast part of the Peninsula, Keys, and Florida Straits. ..Guyer.. 04/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...South Florida/Keys... A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will approach the region later tonight. But with the front having progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe risk) over land should remain very low. ...North-central High Plains.. A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible from the Lower Ohio River Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Thursday with very cold mid-level temperatures (-22 to -26C at 500mb) expected from the Great Lakes to the Mid-South. These cold temperatures aloft will result in steep mid-level lapse rates which will support weak to potentially moderate instability by early-afternoon. Unidirectional flow, strengthening with height, will support storm organization including updraft rotation. Overall, the dry airmass, and thus relatively weak instability, should limit a greater threat. However, cold temperatures aloft and forecast soundings showing a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the potential for some large hail and damaging wind gusts. The greatest threat for stronger supercells will exist along the cold front during peak heating (likely eastern Arkansas to northern Alabama and southern Tennessee) where better moisture/instability should be present. Despite a drier airmass farther north and east, the coldest air aloft will advect over this region and could support a threat as far northeast as far southern Ohio. ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible from the Lower Ohio River Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Thursday with very cold mid-level temperatures (-22 to -26C at 500mb) expected from the Great Lakes to the Mid-South. These cold temperatures aloft will result in steep mid-level lapse rates which will support weak to potentially moderate instability by early-afternoon. Unidirectional flow, strengthening with height, will support storm organization including updraft rotation. Overall, the dry airmass, and thus relatively weak instability, should limit a greater threat. However, cold temperatures aloft and forecast soundings showing a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the potential for some large hail and damaging wind gusts. The greatest threat for stronger supercells will exist along the cold front during peak heating (likely eastern Arkansas to northern Alabama and southern Tennessee) where better moisture/instability should be present. Despite a drier airmass farther north and east, the coldest air aloft will advect over this region and could support a threat as far northeast as far southern Ohio. ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible from the Lower Ohio River Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Thursday with very cold mid-level temperatures (-22 to -26C at 500mb) expected from the Great Lakes to the Mid-South. These cold temperatures aloft will result in steep mid-level lapse rates which will support weak to potentially moderate instability by early-afternoon. Unidirectional flow, strengthening with height, will support storm organization including updraft rotation. Overall, the dry airmass, and thus relatively weak instability, should limit a greater threat. However, cold temperatures aloft and forecast soundings showing a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the potential for some large hail and damaging wind gusts. The greatest threat for stronger supercells will exist along the cold front during peak heating (likely eastern Arkansas to northern Alabama and southern Tennessee) where better moisture/instability should be present. Despite a drier airmass farther north and east, the coldest air aloft will advect over this region and could support a threat as far northeast as far southern Ohio. ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible from the Lower Ohio River Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Thursday with very cold mid-level temperatures (-22 to -26C at 500mb) expected from the Great Lakes to the Mid-South. These cold temperatures aloft will result in steep mid-level lapse rates which will support weak to potentially moderate instability by early-afternoon. Unidirectional flow, strengthening with height, will support storm organization including updraft rotation. Overall, the dry airmass, and thus relatively weak instability, should limit a greater threat. However, cold temperatures aloft and forecast soundings showing a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the potential for some large hail and damaging wind gusts. The greatest threat for stronger supercells will exist along the cold front during peak heating (likely eastern Arkansas to northern Alabama and southern Tennessee) where better moisture/instability should be present. Despite a drier airmass farther north and east, the coldest air aloft will advect over this region and could support a threat as far northeast as far southern Ohio. ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible from the Lower Ohio River Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Thursday with very cold mid-level temperatures (-22 to -26C at 500mb) expected from the Great Lakes to the Mid-South. These cold temperatures aloft will result in steep mid-level lapse rates which will support weak to potentially moderate instability by early-afternoon. Unidirectional flow, strengthening with height, will support storm organization including updraft rotation. Overall, the dry airmass, and thus relatively weak instability, should limit a greater threat. However, cold temperatures aloft and forecast soundings showing a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the potential for some large hail and damaging wind gusts. The greatest threat for stronger supercells will exist along the cold front during peak heating (likely eastern Arkansas to northern Alabama and southern Tennessee) where better moisture/instability should be present. Despite a drier airmass farther north and east, the coldest air aloft will advect over this region and could support a threat as far northeast as far southern Ohio. ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible from the Lower Ohio River Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Thursday with very cold mid-level temperatures (-22 to -26C at 500mb) expected from the Great Lakes to the Mid-South. These cold temperatures aloft will result in steep mid-level lapse rates which will support weak to potentially moderate instability by early-afternoon. Unidirectional flow, strengthening with height, will support storm organization including updraft rotation. Overall, the dry airmass, and thus relatively weak instability, should limit a greater threat. However, cold temperatures aloft and forecast soundings showing a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the potential for some large hail and damaging wind gusts. The greatest threat for stronger supercells will exist along the cold front during peak heating (likely eastern Arkansas to northern Alabama and southern Tennessee) where better moisture/instability should be present. Despite a drier airmass farther north and east, the coldest air aloft will advect over this region and could support a threat as far northeast as far southern Ohio. ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible from the Lower Ohio River Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Thursday with very cold mid-level temperatures (-22 to -26C at 500mb) expected from the Great Lakes to the Mid-South. These cold temperatures aloft will result in steep mid-level lapse rates which will support weak to potentially moderate instability by early-afternoon. Unidirectional flow, strengthening with height, will support storm organization including updraft rotation. Overall, the dry airmass, and thus relatively weak instability, should limit a greater threat. However, cold temperatures aloft and forecast soundings showing a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the potential for some large hail and damaging wind gusts. The greatest threat for stronger supercells will exist along the cold front during peak heating (likely eastern Arkansas to northern Alabama and southern Tennessee) where better moisture/instability should be present. Despite a drier airmass farther north and east, the coldest air aloft will advect over this region and could support a threat as far northeast as far southern Ohio. ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest on Wednesday, while a surface low will develop over Missouri and moves into the Lower Ohio Valley. A cold front will extend southwestward from this surface low with a warm front to the northeast. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated thunderstorms along the warm front during the evening/overnight hours. Some thunderstorms may develop along the cold front where slightly greater instability is forecast. Locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, but the weak instability should limit storm intensity. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as a mid-level trough amplifies and moves south and a mid-level jet streak overspreads the region. ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest on Wednesday, while a surface low will develop over Missouri and moves into the Lower Ohio Valley. A cold front will extend southwestward from this surface low with a warm front to the northeast. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated thunderstorms along the warm front during the evening/overnight hours. Some thunderstorms may develop along the cold front where slightly greater instability is forecast. Locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, but the weak instability should limit storm intensity. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as a mid-level trough amplifies and moves south and a mid-level jet streak overspreads the region. ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest on Wednesday, while a surface low will develop over Missouri and moves into the Lower Ohio Valley. A cold front will extend southwestward from this surface low with a warm front to the northeast. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated thunderstorms along the warm front during the evening/overnight hours. Some thunderstorms may develop along the cold front where slightly greater instability is forecast. Locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, but the weak instability should limit storm intensity. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as a mid-level trough amplifies and moves south and a mid-level jet streak overspreads the region. ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest on Wednesday, while a surface low will develop over Missouri and moves into the Lower Ohio Valley. A cold front will extend southwestward from this surface low with a warm front to the northeast. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated thunderstorms along the warm front during the evening/overnight hours. Some thunderstorms may develop along the cold front where slightly greater instability is forecast. Locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, but the weak instability should limit storm intensity. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as a mid-level trough amplifies and moves south and a mid-level jet streak overspreads the region. ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest on Wednesday, while a surface low will develop over Missouri and moves into the Lower Ohio Valley. A cold front will extend southwestward from this surface low with a warm front to the northeast. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated thunderstorms along the warm front during the evening/overnight hours. Some thunderstorms may develop along the cold front where slightly greater instability is forecast. Locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, but the weak instability should limit storm intensity. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as a mid-level trough amplifies and moves south and a mid-level jet streak overspreads the region. ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025 Read more