Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an elongated, strong mid-level jet streak across the central Plains will help amplify the trough across the eastern CONUS. Very cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -26C at 500mb) will overspread the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. ...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley... Ahead of a southward moving surface front, low-level moistening and substantial diurnal heating will result in moderate instability (1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from Arkansas into Tennessee, with weaker destabilization farther northeast into the Lower Ohio River Valley. A broad region of ascent will develop across the warm sector by early Thursday afternoon within the left exit region of the upper-level jet streak. This should result in scattered thunderstorms from Arkansas/Missouri to Indiana, eastern Kentucky and perhaps southern Ohio. The best overlap between the greatest instability and shear will be from eastern Arkansas eastward to northern Georgia where the slight risk is present. Long/straight hodographs will initially support splitting supercells with a threat for large hail. In addition, these supercells will have some wind threat given the steep lapse rates and well-mixed boundary layer. This thermodynamic profile will support eventual upscale growth into one or more line segments with a primary damaging wind threat expected by late afternoon and into the evening. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an elongated, strong mid-level jet streak across the central Plains will help amplify the trough across the eastern CONUS. Very cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -26C at 500mb) will overspread the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. ...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley... Ahead of a southward moving surface front, low-level moistening and substantial diurnal heating will result in moderate instability (1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from Arkansas into Tennessee, with weaker destabilization farther northeast into the Lower Ohio River Valley. A broad region of ascent will develop across the warm sector by early Thursday afternoon within the left exit region of the upper-level jet streak. This should result in scattered thunderstorms from Arkansas/Missouri to Indiana, eastern Kentucky and perhaps southern Ohio. The best overlap between the greatest instability and shear will be from eastern Arkansas eastward to northern Georgia where the slight risk is present. Long/straight hodographs will initially support splitting supercells with a threat for large hail. In addition, these supercells will have some wind threat given the steep lapse rates and well-mixed boundary layer. This thermodynamic profile will support eventual upscale growth into one or more line segments with a primary damaging wind threat expected by late afternoon and into the evening. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an elongated, strong mid-level jet streak across the central Plains will help amplify the trough across the eastern CONUS. Very cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -26C at 500mb) will overspread the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. ...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley... Ahead of a southward moving surface front, low-level moistening and substantial diurnal heating will result in moderate instability (1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from Arkansas into Tennessee, with weaker destabilization farther northeast into the Lower Ohio River Valley. A broad region of ascent will develop across the warm sector by early Thursday afternoon within the left exit region of the upper-level jet streak. This should result in scattered thunderstorms from Arkansas/Missouri to Indiana, eastern Kentucky and perhaps southern Ohio. The best overlap between the greatest instability and shear will be from eastern Arkansas eastward to northern Georgia where the slight risk is present. Long/straight hodographs will initially support splitting supercells with a threat for large hail. In addition, these supercells will have some wind threat given the steep lapse rates and well-mixed boundary layer. This thermodynamic profile will support eventual upscale growth into one or more line segments with a primary damaging wind threat expected by late afternoon and into the evening. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an elongated, strong mid-level jet streak across the central Plains will help amplify the trough across the eastern CONUS. Very cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -26C at 500mb) will overspread the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. ...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley... Ahead of a southward moving surface front, low-level moistening and substantial diurnal heating will result in moderate instability (1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from Arkansas into Tennessee, with weaker destabilization farther northeast into the Lower Ohio River Valley. A broad region of ascent will develop across the warm sector by early Thursday afternoon within the left exit region of the upper-level jet streak. This should result in scattered thunderstorms from Arkansas/Missouri to Indiana, eastern Kentucky and perhaps southern Ohio. The best overlap between the greatest instability and shear will be from eastern Arkansas eastward to northern Georgia where the slight risk is present. Long/straight hodographs will initially support splitting supercells with a threat for large hail. In addition, these supercells will have some wind threat given the steep lapse rates and well-mixed boundary layer. This thermodynamic profile will support eventual upscale growth into one or more line segments with a primary damaging wind threat expected by late afternoon and into the evening. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an elongated, strong mid-level jet streak across the central Plains will help amplify the trough across the eastern CONUS. Very cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -26C at 500mb) will overspread the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. ...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley... Ahead of a southward moving surface front, low-level moistening and substantial diurnal heating will result in moderate instability (1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from Arkansas into Tennessee, with weaker destabilization farther northeast into the Lower Ohio River Valley. A broad region of ascent will develop across the warm sector by early Thursday afternoon within the left exit region of the upper-level jet streak. This should result in scattered thunderstorms from Arkansas/Missouri to Indiana, eastern Kentucky and perhaps southern Ohio. The best overlap between the greatest instability and shear will be from eastern Arkansas eastward to northern Georgia where the slight risk is present. Long/straight hodographs will initially support splitting supercells with a threat for large hail. In addition, these supercells will have some wind threat given the steep lapse rates and well-mixed boundary layer. This thermodynamic profile will support eventual upscale growth into one or more line segments with a primary damaging wind threat expected by late afternoon and into the evening. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an elongated, strong mid-level jet streak across the central Plains will help amplify the trough across the eastern CONUS. Very cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -26C at 500mb) will overspread the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. ...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley... Ahead of a southward moving surface front, low-level moistening and substantial diurnal heating will result in moderate instability (1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from Arkansas into Tennessee, with weaker destabilization farther northeast into the Lower Ohio River Valley. A broad region of ascent will develop across the warm sector by early Thursday afternoon within the left exit region of the upper-level jet streak. This should result in scattered thunderstorms from Arkansas/Missouri to Indiana, eastern Kentucky and perhaps southern Ohio. The best overlap between the greatest instability and shear will be from eastern Arkansas eastward to northern Georgia where the slight risk is present. Long/straight hodographs will initially support splitting supercells with a threat for large hail. In addition, these supercells will have some wind threat given the steep lapse rates and well-mixed boundary layer. This thermodynamic profile will support eventual upscale growth into one or more line segments with a primary damaging wind threat expected by late afternoon and into the evening. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an elongated, strong mid-level jet streak across the central Plains will help amplify the trough across the eastern CONUS. Very cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -26C at 500mb) will overspread the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. ...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley... Ahead of a southward moving surface front, low-level moistening and substantial diurnal heating will result in moderate instability (1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from Arkansas into Tennessee, with weaker destabilization farther northeast into the Lower Ohio River Valley. A broad region of ascent will develop across the warm sector by early Thursday afternoon within the left exit region of the upper-level jet streak. This should result in scattered thunderstorms from Arkansas/Missouri to Indiana, eastern Kentucky and perhaps southern Ohio. The best overlap between the greatest instability and shear will be from eastern Arkansas eastward to northern Georgia where the slight risk is present. Long/straight hodographs will initially support splitting supercells with a threat for large hail. In addition, these supercells will have some wind threat given the steep lapse rates and well-mixed boundary layer. This thermodynamic profile will support eventual upscale growth into one or more line segments with a primary damaging wind threat expected by late afternoon and into the evening. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Short term model guidance continues to indicate high-based but isolated thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska through the afternoon. The isolated convection will quickly move southeastward at 35-45 mph, limiting rainfall while also producing gusty surface winds associated owing to a fairly dry sub-cloud layer. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were introduced into north-central into southeastern portions of Nebraska. Elevated highlights were expanded slightly into western Kansas accounting for a more broad area of enhanced northwest winds within a dry post-frontal air mass. Similarly in Florida, modest northerly surface winds nearly parallel to the lower Florida Peninsula combined with afternoon relative humidity dropping into the 25-35 percent range will allow for Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. The driest boundary layer conditions will be concentrated along the western Florida peninsula through this afternoon where the Elevated highlights were added. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will begin to amplify over the Ohio Valley as upper ridging builds in over the Interior West today. By afternoon, an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread a dry boundary layer over the central/northern Plains. Downward momentum transport within this dry boundary layer will support 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH. Given dry fuels across the central/northern Plains, Elevated highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus depicts the aforementioned dry/windy conditions persisting for several hours. Guidance consensus also depicts 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH across portions of the central High Plains, where Critical highlights are in place. Additionally, by afternoon, buoyancy (albeit scant) may support isolated, fast-moving/high-based thunderstorms over the same portions of the central Plains that will experience dry/windy surface conditions atop dry fuels. However, thunderstorms should be sparse at best over most areas, and it is unclear where a locally higher density of lightning flashes may occur, hence no isolated dry thunderstorms highlights introduced this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Short term model guidance continues to indicate high-based but isolated thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska through the afternoon. The isolated convection will quickly move southeastward at 35-45 mph, limiting rainfall while also producing gusty surface winds associated owing to a fairly dry sub-cloud layer. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were introduced into north-central into southeastern portions of Nebraska. Elevated highlights were expanded slightly into western Kansas accounting for a more broad area of enhanced northwest winds within a dry post-frontal air mass. Similarly in Florida, modest northerly surface winds nearly parallel to the lower Florida Peninsula combined with afternoon relative humidity dropping into the 25-35 percent range will allow for Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. The driest boundary layer conditions will be concentrated along the western Florida peninsula through this afternoon where the Elevated highlights were added. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will begin to amplify over the Ohio Valley as upper ridging builds in over the Interior West today. By afternoon, an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread a dry boundary layer over the central/northern Plains. Downward momentum transport within this dry boundary layer will support 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH. Given dry fuels across the central/northern Plains, Elevated highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus depicts the aforementioned dry/windy conditions persisting for several hours. Guidance consensus also depicts 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH across portions of the central High Plains, where Critical highlights are in place. Additionally, by afternoon, buoyancy (albeit scant) may support isolated, fast-moving/high-based thunderstorms over the same portions of the central Plains that will experience dry/windy surface conditions atop dry fuels. However, thunderstorms should be sparse at best over most areas, and it is unclear where a locally higher density of lightning flashes may occur, hence no isolated dry thunderstorms highlights introduced this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Short term model guidance continues to indicate high-based but isolated thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska through the afternoon. The isolated convection will quickly move southeastward at 35-45 mph, limiting rainfall while also producing gusty surface winds associated owing to a fairly dry sub-cloud layer. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were introduced into north-central into southeastern portions of Nebraska. Elevated highlights were expanded slightly into western Kansas accounting for a more broad area of enhanced northwest winds within a dry post-frontal air mass. Similarly in Florida, modest northerly surface winds nearly parallel to the lower Florida Peninsula combined with afternoon relative humidity dropping into the 25-35 percent range will allow for Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. The driest boundary layer conditions will be concentrated along the western Florida peninsula through this afternoon where the Elevated highlights were added. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will begin to amplify over the Ohio Valley as upper ridging builds in over the Interior West today. By afternoon, an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread a dry boundary layer over the central/northern Plains. Downward momentum transport within this dry boundary layer will support 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH. Given dry fuels across the central/northern Plains, Elevated highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus depicts the aforementioned dry/windy conditions persisting for several hours. Guidance consensus also depicts 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH across portions of the central High Plains, where Critical highlights are in place. Additionally, by afternoon, buoyancy (albeit scant) may support isolated, fast-moving/high-based thunderstorms over the same portions of the central Plains that will experience dry/windy surface conditions atop dry fuels. However, thunderstorms should be sparse at best over most areas, and it is unclear where a locally higher density of lightning flashes may occur, hence no isolated dry thunderstorms highlights introduced this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Short term model guidance continues to indicate high-based but isolated thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska through the afternoon. The isolated convection will quickly move southeastward at 35-45 mph, limiting rainfall while also producing gusty surface winds associated owing to a fairly dry sub-cloud layer. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were introduced into north-central into southeastern portions of Nebraska. Elevated highlights were expanded slightly into western Kansas accounting for a more broad area of enhanced northwest winds within a dry post-frontal air mass. Similarly in Florida, modest northerly surface winds nearly parallel to the lower Florida Peninsula combined with afternoon relative humidity dropping into the 25-35 percent range will allow for Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. The driest boundary layer conditions will be concentrated along the western Florida peninsula through this afternoon where the Elevated highlights were added. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will begin to amplify over the Ohio Valley as upper ridging builds in over the Interior West today. By afternoon, an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread a dry boundary layer over the central/northern Plains. Downward momentum transport within this dry boundary layer will support 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH. Given dry fuels across the central/northern Plains, Elevated highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus depicts the aforementioned dry/windy conditions persisting for several hours. Guidance consensus also depicts 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH across portions of the central High Plains, where Critical highlights are in place. Additionally, by afternoon, buoyancy (albeit scant) may support isolated, fast-moving/high-based thunderstorms over the same portions of the central Plains that will experience dry/windy surface conditions atop dry fuels. However, thunderstorms should be sparse at best over most areas, and it is unclear where a locally higher density of lightning flashes may occur, hence no isolated dry thunderstorms highlights introduced this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Short term model guidance continues to indicate high-based but isolated thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska through the afternoon. The isolated convection will quickly move southeastward at 35-45 mph, limiting rainfall while also producing gusty surface winds associated owing to a fairly dry sub-cloud layer. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were introduced into north-central into southeastern portions of Nebraska. Elevated highlights were expanded slightly into western Kansas accounting for a more broad area of enhanced northwest winds within a dry post-frontal air mass. Similarly in Florida, modest northerly surface winds nearly parallel to the lower Florida Peninsula combined with afternoon relative humidity dropping into the 25-35 percent range will allow for Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. The driest boundary layer conditions will be concentrated along the western Florida peninsula through this afternoon where the Elevated highlights were added. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will begin to amplify over the Ohio Valley as upper ridging builds in over the Interior West today. By afternoon, an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread a dry boundary layer over the central/northern Plains. Downward momentum transport within this dry boundary layer will support 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH. Given dry fuels across the central/northern Plains, Elevated highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus depicts the aforementioned dry/windy conditions persisting for several hours. Guidance consensus also depicts 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH across portions of the central High Plains, where Critical highlights are in place. Additionally, by afternoon, buoyancy (albeit scant) may support isolated, fast-moving/high-based thunderstorms over the same portions of the central Plains that will experience dry/windy surface conditions atop dry fuels. However, thunderstorms should be sparse at best over most areas, and it is unclear where a locally higher density of lightning flashes may occur, hence no isolated dry thunderstorms highlights introduced this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Short term model guidance continues to indicate high-based but isolated thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska through the afternoon. The isolated convection will quickly move southeastward at 35-45 mph, limiting rainfall while also producing gusty surface winds associated owing to a fairly dry sub-cloud layer. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were introduced into north-central into southeastern portions of Nebraska. Elevated highlights were expanded slightly into western Kansas accounting for a more broad area of enhanced northwest winds within a dry post-frontal air mass. Similarly in Florida, modest northerly surface winds nearly parallel to the lower Florida Peninsula combined with afternoon relative humidity dropping into the 25-35 percent range will allow for Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. The driest boundary layer conditions will be concentrated along the western Florida peninsula through this afternoon where the Elevated highlights were added. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will begin to amplify over the Ohio Valley as upper ridging builds in over the Interior West today. By afternoon, an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread a dry boundary layer over the central/northern Plains. Downward momentum transport within this dry boundary layer will support 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH. Given dry fuels across the central/northern Plains, Elevated highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus depicts the aforementioned dry/windy conditions persisting for several hours. Guidance consensus also depicts 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH across portions of the central High Plains, where Critical highlights are in place. Additionally, by afternoon, buoyancy (albeit scant) may support isolated, fast-moving/high-based thunderstorms over the same portions of the central Plains that will experience dry/windy surface conditions atop dry fuels. However, thunderstorms should be sparse at best over most areas, and it is unclear where a locally higher density of lightning flashes may occur, hence no isolated dry thunderstorms highlights introduced this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Short term model guidance continues to indicate high-based but isolated thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska through the afternoon. The isolated convection will quickly move southeastward at 35-45 mph, limiting rainfall while also producing gusty surface winds associated owing to a fairly dry sub-cloud layer. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were introduced into north-central into southeastern portions of Nebraska. Elevated highlights were expanded slightly into western Kansas accounting for a more broad area of enhanced northwest winds within a dry post-frontal air mass. Similarly in Florida, modest northerly surface winds nearly parallel to the lower Florida Peninsula combined with afternoon relative humidity dropping into the 25-35 percent range will allow for Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. The driest boundary layer conditions will be concentrated along the western Florida peninsula through this afternoon where the Elevated highlights were added. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will begin to amplify over the Ohio Valley as upper ridging builds in over the Interior West today. By afternoon, an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread a dry boundary layer over the central/northern Plains. Downward momentum transport within this dry boundary layer will support 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH. Given dry fuels across the central/northern Plains, Elevated highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus depicts the aforementioned dry/windy conditions persisting for several hours. Guidance consensus also depicts 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH across portions of the central High Plains, where Critical highlights are in place. Additionally, by afternoon, buoyancy (albeit scant) may support isolated, fast-moving/high-based thunderstorms over the same portions of the central Plains that will experience dry/windy surface conditions atop dry fuels. However, thunderstorms should be sparse at best over most areas, and it is unclear where a locally higher density of lightning flashes may occur, hence no isolated dry thunderstorms highlights introduced this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated convection capable of producing lightning through the period. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated convection capable of producing lightning through the period. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated convection capable of producing lightning through the period. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated convection capable of producing lightning through the period. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated convection capable of producing lightning through the period. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated convection capable of producing lightning through the period. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 04/09/2025 Read more