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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Barnes.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Barnes.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Barnes.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Barnes.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Barnes.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Barnes.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Barnes.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Barnes.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Barnes.. 05/23/2025 Read more

Rapid City’s Water Division implemented its annual water restrictions early this year, something that hasn’t occurred in more than 15 years. Pactola Reservoir was at a critically low level as the area remained in drought. The Water Division has put the Pactola Reservoir under "concern status" due to low inflow rates and poor winter recovery. Water conservation measures started May 1 and were to be in effect through September 30, 2025. Conditions at the Pactola reservoir will be reassessed in late August to determine if restrictions would continue or be relaxed. KNBN- TV NewsCenter 1 (Rapid City, S.D.), May 22, 2025

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central/Southern Plains... In the wake of overnight/early morning convection across parts of central/south TX, low-level airmass recovery is anticipated today across much of the southern/central Plains along and south of a front. Only weak forcing aloft is forecast, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains should encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern CO/western KS by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern KS/northern OK later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if a separate cluster will eventually develop. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a threat for hail and severe/damaging winds with whatever convection that can persist this evening/overnight. Across the southern High Plains, isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along/east of the surface dryline. Weak large-scale forcing and warm low/mid-level temperatures limit confidence on overall thunderstorm coverage. Still, any convection which can develop could pose an isolated threat for severe hail/wind through the early evening before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast FL Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central/Southern Plains... In the wake of overnight/early morning convection across parts of central/south TX, low-level airmass recovery is anticipated today across much of the southern/central Plains along and south of a front. Only weak forcing aloft is forecast, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains should encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern CO/western KS by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern KS/northern OK later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if a separate cluster will eventually develop. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a threat for hail and severe/damaging winds with whatever convection that can persist this evening/overnight. Across the southern High Plains, isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along/east of the surface dryline. Weak large-scale forcing and warm low/mid-level temperatures limit confidence on overall thunderstorm coverage. Still, any convection which can develop could pose an isolated threat for severe hail/wind through the early evening before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast FL Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central/Southern Plains... In the wake of overnight/early morning convection across parts of central/south TX, low-level airmass recovery is anticipated today across much of the southern/central Plains along and south of a front. Only weak forcing aloft is forecast, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains should encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern CO/western KS by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern KS/northern OK later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if a separate cluster will eventually develop. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a threat for hail and severe/damaging winds with whatever convection that can persist this evening/overnight. Across the southern High Plains, isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along/east of the surface dryline. Weak large-scale forcing and warm low/mid-level temperatures limit confidence on overall thunderstorm coverage. Still, any convection which can develop could pose an isolated threat for severe hail/wind through the early evening before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast FL Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central/Southern Plains... In the wake of overnight/early morning convection across parts of central/south TX, low-level airmass recovery is anticipated today across much of the southern/central Plains along and south of a front. Only weak forcing aloft is forecast, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains should encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern CO/western KS by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern KS/northern OK later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if a separate cluster will eventually develop. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a threat for hail and severe/damaging winds with whatever convection that can persist this evening/overnight. Across the southern High Plains, isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along/east of the surface dryline. Weak large-scale forcing and warm low/mid-level temperatures limit confidence on overall thunderstorm coverage. Still, any convection which can develop could pose an isolated threat for severe hail/wind through the early evening before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast FL Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central/Southern Plains... In the wake of overnight/early morning convection across parts of central/south TX, low-level airmass recovery is anticipated today across much of the southern/central Plains along and south of a front. Only weak forcing aloft is forecast, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains should encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern CO/western KS by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern KS/northern OK later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if a separate cluster will eventually develop. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a threat for hail and severe/damaging winds with whatever convection that can persist this evening/overnight. Across the southern High Plains, isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along/east of the surface dryline. Weak large-scale forcing and warm low/mid-level temperatures limit confidence on overall thunderstorm coverage. Still, any convection which can develop could pose an isolated threat for severe hail/wind through the early evening before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast FL Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central/Southern Plains... In the wake of overnight/early morning convection across parts of central/south TX, low-level airmass recovery is anticipated today across much of the southern/central Plains along and south of a front. Only weak forcing aloft is forecast, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains should encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern CO/western KS by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern KS/northern OK later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if a separate cluster will eventually develop. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a threat for hail and severe/damaging winds with whatever convection that can persist this evening/overnight. Across the southern High Plains, isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along/east of the surface dryline. Weak large-scale forcing and warm low/mid-level temperatures limit confidence on overall thunderstorm coverage. Still, any convection which can develop could pose an isolated threat for severe hail/wind through the early evening before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast FL Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/23/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231116
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri May 23 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form around the middle of next week while moving
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... The medium-range models move a mid-level trough into the southern and central Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of this airmass Monday afternoon. The greatest convective coverage should be located in parts of central and east Texas, where warm advection is forecast to be maximized. Across the moist airmass, moderate instability will likely be in place by midday. In addition, westerly flow associated with the trough, should be strong enough for a severe threat. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible as a cluster or line of storms moves southeastward into central and east Texas during the afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, the moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states, with the mid-level trough moving into the Ozarks. Model forecasts suggest that numerous thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trough in parts of the Southeast, with more isolated development occurring across the southern Plains. Although a severe threat will be possible across parts of this airmass, mesoscale processes will determine the most favorable areas for severe. It appears that instability will support isolated wind damage and hail, but predictability appears low concerning the spatial distribution of any isolated threat. On Wednesday, the most unstable air is forecast from parts of central and south Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, thunderstorms should develop in areas that warm up sufficiently along residual outflow boundaries. An isolated severe threat should develop during the mid to late afternoon, but predictability appears to be low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, westerly mid-level flow is forecast over the southern U.S., where an unstable airmass is expected to remain in place. As surface temperatures warm each day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should take place. Although instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms in a few areas, predictability remains low. In addition, on Friday convection will be possible ahead of a cold front across parts of the Atlantic Seaboard. Enough instability should be in place during the day for an isolated severe threat. However, the spatial distribution of any potential threat appears to have low predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... The medium-range models move a mid-level trough into the southern and central Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of this airmass Monday afternoon. The greatest convective coverage should be located in parts of central and east Texas, where warm advection is forecast to be maximized. Across the moist airmass, moderate instability will likely be in place by midday. In addition, westerly flow associated with the trough, should be strong enough for a severe threat. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible as a cluster or line of storms moves southeastward into central and east Texas during the afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, the moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states, with the mid-level trough moving into the Ozarks. Model forecasts suggest that numerous thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trough in parts of the Southeast, with more isolated development occurring across the southern Plains. Although a severe threat will be possible across parts of this airmass, mesoscale processes will determine the most favorable areas for severe. It appears that instability will support isolated wind damage and hail, but predictability appears low concerning the spatial distribution of any isolated threat. On Wednesday, the most unstable air is forecast from parts of central and south Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, thunderstorms should develop in areas that warm up sufficiently along residual outflow boundaries. An isolated severe threat should develop during the mid to late afternoon, but predictability appears to be low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, westerly mid-level flow is forecast over the southern U.S., where an unstable airmass is expected to remain in place. As surface temperatures warm each day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should take place. Although instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms in a few areas, predictability remains low. In addition, on Friday convection will be possible ahead of a cold front across parts of the Atlantic Seaboard. Enough instability should be in place during the day for an isolated severe threat. However, the spatial distribution of any potential threat appears to have low predictability. Read more