Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z An upper-level ridge is expected to amplify as it translates eastward into the Great Plains through the end of the week (Day 5/Saturday), bringing above normal temperatures and dry conditions to much of the Southwest. A subtle, upper-level short wave moving into northern California and northern Great Basin will promote stronger winds across the California Central Valley Day 3/Thursday. Overlap of increased winds and very dry conditions are expected, but fuels capable of fire spread will be limited to dry/cured fine fuels with higher live fuel moisture subduing significant wildfire spread. Nonetheless, Elevated fire weather conditions are likely for portions of the Central Valley for Day 3/Thursday. A more amplified, but still progressive upper-level trough enters California Day 4/Friday, moving into the Intermountain West by Day 5/Saturday. This will introduce a more widespread fire weather threat across the Southwest in terms of increased southwest winds coupled with low relative humidity and dry fuels. A 40 percent Critical probability area has been introduced to highlight the day 4/Friday threat. Muted mid-level flow and a very dry boundary layer bringing breezy and dry conditions remains over New Mexico for Day 5/Saturday supporting at least Elevated fire weather conditions for the area. Pronounced ridging across the western U.S. will support a light wind regime with above normal temperatures beginning early next week Day 6/Sunday. Ensemble guidance shows an impinging upper-level trough into the Pacific Northwest Day 6-7/Sunday Monday. The trough along with some mid-level moisture could promote thunderstorm development across portions of the northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday although fuel receptiveness to ignition should be limited. ..Williams.. 05/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z An upper-level ridge is expected to amplify as it translates eastward into the Great Plains through the end of the week (Day 5/Saturday), bringing above normal temperatures and dry conditions to much of the Southwest. A subtle, upper-level short wave moving into northern California and northern Great Basin will promote stronger winds across the California Central Valley Day 3/Thursday. Overlap of increased winds and very dry conditions are expected, but fuels capable of fire spread will be limited to dry/cured fine fuels with higher live fuel moisture subduing significant wildfire spread. Nonetheless, Elevated fire weather conditions are likely for portions of the Central Valley for Day 3/Thursday. A more amplified, but still progressive upper-level trough enters California Day 4/Friday, moving into the Intermountain West by Day 5/Saturday. This will introduce a more widespread fire weather threat across the Southwest in terms of increased southwest winds coupled with low relative humidity and dry fuels. A 40 percent Critical probability area has been introduced to highlight the day 4/Friday threat. Muted mid-level flow and a very dry boundary layer bringing breezy and dry conditions remains over New Mexico for Day 5/Saturday supporting at least Elevated fire weather conditions for the area. Pronounced ridging across the western U.S. will support a light wind regime with above normal temperatures beginning early next week Day 6/Sunday. Ensemble guidance shows an impinging upper-level trough into the Pacific Northwest Day 6-7/Sunday Monday. The trough along with some mid-level moisture could promote thunderstorm development across portions of the northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday although fuel receptiveness to ignition should be limited. ..Williams.. 05/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z An upper-level ridge is expected to amplify as it translates eastward into the Great Plains through the end of the week (Day 5/Saturday), bringing above normal temperatures and dry conditions to much of the Southwest. A subtle, upper-level short wave moving into northern California and northern Great Basin will promote stronger winds across the California Central Valley Day 3/Thursday. Overlap of increased winds and very dry conditions are expected, but fuels capable of fire spread will be limited to dry/cured fine fuels with higher live fuel moisture subduing significant wildfire spread. Nonetheless, Elevated fire weather conditions are likely for portions of the Central Valley for Day 3/Thursday. A more amplified, but still progressive upper-level trough enters California Day 4/Friday, moving into the Intermountain West by Day 5/Saturday. This will introduce a more widespread fire weather threat across the Southwest in terms of increased southwest winds coupled with low relative humidity and dry fuels. A 40 percent Critical probability area has been introduced to highlight the day 4/Friday threat. Muted mid-level flow and a very dry boundary layer bringing breezy and dry conditions remains over New Mexico for Day 5/Saturday supporting at least Elevated fire weather conditions for the area. Pronounced ridging across the western U.S. will support a light wind regime with above normal temperatures beginning early next week Day 6/Sunday. Ensemble guidance shows an impinging upper-level trough into the Pacific Northwest Day 6-7/Sunday Monday. The trough along with some mid-level moisture could promote thunderstorm development across portions of the northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday although fuel receptiveness to ignition should be limited. ..Williams.. 05/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z An upper-level ridge is expected to amplify as it translates eastward into the Great Plains through the end of the week (Day 5/Saturday), bringing above normal temperatures and dry conditions to much of the Southwest. A subtle, upper-level short wave moving into northern California and northern Great Basin will promote stronger winds across the California Central Valley Day 3/Thursday. Overlap of increased winds and very dry conditions are expected, but fuels capable of fire spread will be limited to dry/cured fine fuels with higher live fuel moisture subduing significant wildfire spread. Nonetheless, Elevated fire weather conditions are likely for portions of the Central Valley for Day 3/Thursday. A more amplified, but still progressive upper-level trough enters California Day 4/Friday, moving into the Intermountain West by Day 5/Saturday. This will introduce a more widespread fire weather threat across the Southwest in terms of increased southwest winds coupled with low relative humidity and dry fuels. A 40 percent Critical probability area has been introduced to highlight the day 4/Friday threat. Muted mid-level flow and a very dry boundary layer bringing breezy and dry conditions remains over New Mexico for Day 5/Saturday supporting at least Elevated fire weather conditions for the area. Pronounced ridging across the western U.S. will support a light wind regime with above normal temperatures beginning early next week Day 6/Sunday. Ensemble guidance shows an impinging upper-level trough into the Pacific Northwest Day 6-7/Sunday Monday. The trough along with some mid-level moisture could promote thunderstorm development across portions of the northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday although fuel receptiveness to ignition should be limited. ..Williams.. 05/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z An upper-level ridge is expected to amplify as it translates eastward into the Great Plains through the end of the week (Day 5/Saturday), bringing above normal temperatures and dry conditions to much of the Southwest. A subtle, upper-level short wave moving into northern California and northern Great Basin will promote stronger winds across the California Central Valley Day 3/Thursday. Overlap of increased winds and very dry conditions are expected, but fuels capable of fire spread will be limited to dry/cured fine fuels with higher live fuel moisture subduing significant wildfire spread. Nonetheless, Elevated fire weather conditions are likely for portions of the Central Valley for Day 3/Thursday. A more amplified, but still progressive upper-level trough enters California Day 4/Friday, moving into the Intermountain West by Day 5/Saturday. This will introduce a more widespread fire weather threat across the Southwest in terms of increased southwest winds coupled with low relative humidity and dry fuels. A 40 percent Critical probability area has been introduced to highlight the day 4/Friday threat. Muted mid-level flow and a very dry boundary layer bringing breezy and dry conditions remains over New Mexico for Day 5/Saturday supporting at least Elevated fire weather conditions for the area. Pronounced ridging across the western U.S. will support a light wind regime with above normal temperatures beginning early next week Day 6/Sunday. Ensemble guidance shows an impinging upper-level trough into the Pacific Northwest Day 6-7/Sunday Monday. The trough along with some mid-level moisture could promote thunderstorm development across portions of the northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday although fuel receptiveness to ignition should be limited. ..Williams.. 05/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z An upper-level ridge is expected to amplify as it translates eastward into the Great Plains through the end of the week (Day 5/Saturday), bringing above normal temperatures and dry conditions to much of the Southwest. A subtle, upper-level short wave moving into northern California and northern Great Basin will promote stronger winds across the California Central Valley Day 3/Thursday. Overlap of increased winds and very dry conditions are expected, but fuels capable of fire spread will be limited to dry/cured fine fuels with higher live fuel moisture subduing significant wildfire spread. Nonetheless, Elevated fire weather conditions are likely for portions of the Central Valley for Day 3/Thursday. A more amplified, but still progressive upper-level trough enters California Day 4/Friday, moving into the Intermountain West by Day 5/Saturday. This will introduce a more widespread fire weather threat across the Southwest in terms of increased southwest winds coupled with low relative humidity and dry fuels. A 40 percent Critical probability area has been introduced to highlight the day 4/Friday threat. Muted mid-level flow and a very dry boundary layer bringing breezy and dry conditions remains over New Mexico for Day 5/Saturday supporting at least Elevated fire weather conditions for the area. Pronounced ridging across the western U.S. will support a light wind regime with above normal temperatures beginning early next week Day 6/Sunday. Ensemble guidance shows an impinging upper-level trough into the Pacific Northwest Day 6-7/Sunday Monday. The trough along with some mid-level moisture could promote thunderstorm development across portions of the northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday although fuel receptiveness to ignition should be limited. ..Williams.. 05/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z An upper-level ridge is expected to amplify as it translates eastward into the Great Plains through the end of the week (Day 5/Saturday), bringing above normal temperatures and dry conditions to much of the Southwest. A subtle, upper-level short wave moving into northern California and northern Great Basin will promote stronger winds across the California Central Valley Day 3/Thursday. Overlap of increased winds and very dry conditions are expected, but fuels capable of fire spread will be limited to dry/cured fine fuels with higher live fuel moisture subduing significant wildfire spread. Nonetheless, Elevated fire weather conditions are likely for portions of the Central Valley for Day 3/Thursday. A more amplified, but still progressive upper-level trough enters California Day 4/Friday, moving into the Intermountain West by Day 5/Saturday. This will introduce a more widespread fire weather threat across the Southwest in terms of increased southwest winds coupled with low relative humidity and dry fuels. A 40 percent Critical probability area has been introduced to highlight the day 4/Friday threat. Muted mid-level flow and a very dry boundary layer bringing breezy and dry conditions remains over New Mexico for Day 5/Saturday supporting at least Elevated fire weather conditions for the area. Pronounced ridging across the western U.S. will support a light wind regime with above normal temperatures beginning early next week Day 6/Sunday. Ensemble guidance shows an impinging upper-level trough into the Pacific Northwest Day 6-7/Sunday Monday. The trough along with some mid-level moisture could promote thunderstorm development across portions of the northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday although fuel receptiveness to ignition should be limited. ..Williams.. 05/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0302 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 302 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW TRI TO 55 W BLF TO 35 SE HTS TO 5 ENE HTS. WW 302 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210000Z. ..SQUITIERI..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...RLX...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 302 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC163-210000- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SULLIVAN VAC027-051-167-191-520-210000- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUCHANAN DICKENSON RUSSELL WASHINGTON VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL WVC005-043-047-059-109-210000- Read more

WW 0302 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 302 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW TRI TO 55 W BLF TO 35 SE HTS TO 5 ENE HTS. WW 302 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210000Z. ..SQUITIERI..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...RLX...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 302 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC163-210000- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SULLIVAN VAC027-051-167-191-520-210000- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUCHANAN DICKENSON RUSSELL WASHINGTON VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL WVC005-043-047-059-109-210000- Read more

WW 0302 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 302 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW TRI TO 55 W BLF TO 35 SE HTS TO 5 ENE HTS. WW 302 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210000Z. ..SQUITIERI..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...RLX...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 302 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC163-210000- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SULLIVAN VAC027-051-167-191-520-210000- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUCHANAN DICKENSON RUSSELL WASHINGTON VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL WVC005-043-047-059-109-210000- Read more

WW 302 TORNADO KY TN VA WV 201710Z - 210000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 302 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Northeast Tennessee Extreme Southwest Virginia Western West Virginia * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will track eastward across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging winds gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles south of London KY to 70 miles northeast of Jackson KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

Six New Mexico counties and the Mescalero Apache Reservation imposed new fire restrictions Monday, May 19, citing high wildfire risk in various parts of the state. Altogether, 23 towns, counties, tribal or other jurisdictions across the state have imposed some level of fire restriction due to high fire risk, according to the New Mexico Forestry Division. There were also fire restrictions on state forest lands in 18 counties, including Bernalillo, Catron, Chaves, Cibola, De Baca, Dona Ana, Eddy, Grant, Hidalgo, Lea, Lincoln, Luna, Otero, Roosevelt, Sierra, Socorro, Torrance and Valencia. Since the start of the year, 377 wildfires have burned more than 33,500 acres. Tri-City Record (Farmington, N.M.), May 20, 2025

WW 0303 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 303 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW ELD TO 20 ESE LLQ TO 35 WSW MKL TO 50 SSE PAH TO 40 NNW HOP. ..SQUITIERI..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 303 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-202240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT MSC003-009-011-013-015-017-027-033-043-051-053-057-071-081-083- 093-095-097-107-115-117-119-133-135-137-139-141-145-151-155-161- 202240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON BOLIVAR CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW COAHOMA DESOTO GRENADA HOLMES HUMPHREYS ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE LEFLORE MARSHALL MONROE MONTGOMERY PANOLA PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION WASHINGTON WEBSTER Read more

WW 0304 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 304 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SPI TO 10 S BMI TO 15 N BMI TO 25 NW MMO. ..SQUITIERI..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 304 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-021-023-029-035-039-041-045-049-053-075-105-113-115-139- 147-173-183-202240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK COLES CUMBERLAND DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FORD IROQUOIS LIVINGSTON MCLEAN MACON MOULTRIE PIATT SHELBY VERMILION INC007-045-107-121-157-165-167-171-202240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON FOUNTAIN MONTGOMERY PARKE TIPPECANOE VERMILLION VIGO WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 0907 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 302... FOR PARTS OF ERN KENTUCKY...ERN TENNESSEE...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0907 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Areas affected...parts of ern Kentucky...ern Tennessee...southwestern Virginia and southwestern West Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 302... Valid 201942Z - 202145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 302 continues. SUMMARY...The line of storms overspreading the region could still intensify and organize further during the next couple of hours, accompanied by increasing potential for strong to severe surface gusts, and perhaps a tornado. DISCUSSION...The narrow linear convective system has maintained generally modest intensity as it continues to advance into/across the Cumberland and southern Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Due to the strength of the upper flow/shear, there has been little in the way of trailing anvil precipitation develop, and the elongated convectively generated surface cold pool remains modest to weak in strength. However, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear, objective analysis indicates the potential for continuing updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air, characterized by CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, into the crest of the higher terrain. This could still promote further intensification and organization during the next few hours. Where it is intersected by the line of storms, the quasi-stationary to warm frontal zone, north of Jackson KY toward the Charleston WV area, may still provide one possible focus for an evolving meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation, with increasing potential for damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado. ..Kerr.. 05/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL... LAT...LON 37908321 38178292 38278166 37618127 36838151 36208251 35968368 36428344 37208312 37908321 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0906 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA...MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0906 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Areas affected...Northern Alabama...middle Tennessee...and south-central Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 201848Z - 202045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch downstream of WW 303 is expected in the next hour or so as T-storms spread from northern MS and western TN into northern AL, middle TN, and southern KY. DISCUSSION...Sustained convective initiation is well underway across central AR to northern MS/western TN as thunderstorms develop along a cold front and within the open warm sector due to modest low-level warm air advection. This activity is expected to intensify through late afternoon and will gradually spread east. Storm-track projections suggest that the eastern most storms across northern MS/western TN should exit WW 303 by around 20 UTC and spread across much of northern AL and middle TN through 00 UTC. Much of northern AL was glanced by early-morning/early-afternoon convection, but the region largely remains supportive of deep convection with buoyancy characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Further north across northern middle TN into southern KY, a residual cold pool associated with a late-morning QLCS has significantly limited buoyancy for the time being. However, 30-35 knot southwesterly flow between 925-850 mb will advect warm/moist air into the region and promote destabilization through late afternoon. (Warm advection is already noted on the KOHX VWP between 0-2 km.) Deep-layer wind shear across the region should increase through late afternoon as a mid-level jet approaches the region and maintains the potential for severe convection, which will likely be a combination of organized lines and supercells. Watch issuance is expected in the next hour or so to address this concern, though earlier watch issuance is possible if open warm sector convection can develop across northern AL and pose a severe threat in the short-term. ..Moore/Hart.. 05/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... JAN... LAT...LON 33728825 34928796 36778803 37058803 37198777 37308666 37258613 37118588 36698575 34848558 34108574 33738608 33468667 33398732 33418786 33548814 33728825 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0305 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 305 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908 ..MOORE..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...FFC...PAH...LMK...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 305 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-043-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-202140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB FRANKLIN JACKSON LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARSHALL MORGAN GAC047-055-083-295-202140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CATOOSA CHATTOOGA DADE WALKER ILC069-202140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0305 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 305 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908 ..MOORE..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...FFC...PAH...LMK...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 305 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-043-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-202140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB FRANKLIN JACKSON LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARSHALL MORGAN GAC047-055-083-295-202140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CATOOSA CHATTOOGA DADE WALKER ILC069-202140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0303 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 303 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW ELD TO 40 WSW MEM TO 25 SSE FAM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908 ..MOORE..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 303 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-021-035-041-043-079-093-107-202140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLAY CRITTENDEN DESHA DREW LINCOLN MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS ILC003-087-127-151-153-181-202140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI UNION KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-139-145-157-202140- KY Read more

MD 0905 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND ADJACENT WEST CENTRAL INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0905 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Areas affected...much of central Illinois and adjacent west central Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 201836Z - 202030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development will continue to gradually intensify through 2-4 PM CDT, posing increasing risk for severe weather. DISCUSSION...Low-level convergence and boundary-layer destabilization is becoming maximized across much of central Illinois, within the warm sector to the southeast of the primary surface low center now over southeastern Iowa. This will continue to be aided by mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent associated with a still well-defined cyclonic vorticity center to the west-northwest of Quincy IL, which is forecast to continue a slow northeastward and eastward migration across the Midwest through late afternoon. Thermodynamic profiles, particularly centered across and southeast of the Springfield area, appear characterized by rather steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, with mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess of 1000 J/kg. As residual inhibition associated with the remnants of elevated mixed-layer air continues to erode, the environment is becoming supportive of organized convection near/beneath the exit region of a strong mid/upper jet. This may include discrete a few discrete supercells and perhaps an organizing cluster with potential to produce severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may also support a risk for tornadoes, particularly with the more discrete storms. ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 41188923 40728835 38858721 38988952 39868947 40358973 41188923 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more