Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... The medium-range models move a mid-level trough into the southern and central Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of this airmass Monday afternoon. The greatest convective coverage should be located in parts of central and east Texas, where warm advection is forecast to be maximized. Across the moist airmass, moderate instability will likely be in place by midday. In addition, westerly flow associated with the trough, should be strong enough for a severe threat. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible as a cluster or line of storms moves southeastward into central and east Texas during the afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, the moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states, with the mid-level trough moving into the Ozarks. Model forecasts suggest that numerous thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trough in parts of the Southeast, with more isolated development occurring across the southern Plains. Although a severe threat will be possible across parts of this airmass, mesoscale processes will determine the most favorable areas for severe. It appears that instability will support isolated wind damage and hail, but predictability appears low concerning the spatial distribution of any isolated threat. On Wednesday, the most unstable air is forecast from parts of central and south Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, thunderstorms should develop in areas that warm up sufficiently along residual outflow boundaries. An isolated severe threat should develop during the mid to late afternoon, but predictability appears to be low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, westerly mid-level flow is forecast over the southern U.S., where an unstable airmass is expected to remain in place. As surface temperatures warm each day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should take place. Although instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms in a few areas, predictability remains low. In addition, on Friday convection will be possible ahead of a cold front across parts of the Atlantic Seaboard. Enough instability should be in place during the day for an isolated severe threat. However, the spatial distribution of any potential threat appears to have low predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... The medium-range models move a mid-level trough into the southern and central Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of this airmass Monday afternoon. The greatest convective coverage should be located in parts of central and east Texas, where warm advection is forecast to be maximized. Across the moist airmass, moderate instability will likely be in place by midday. In addition, westerly flow associated with the trough, should be strong enough for a severe threat. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible as a cluster or line of storms moves southeastward into central and east Texas during the afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, the moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states, with the mid-level trough moving into the Ozarks. Model forecasts suggest that numerous thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trough in parts of the Southeast, with more isolated development occurring across the southern Plains. Although a severe threat will be possible across parts of this airmass, mesoscale processes will determine the most favorable areas for severe. It appears that instability will support isolated wind damage and hail, but predictability appears low concerning the spatial distribution of any isolated threat. On Wednesday, the most unstable air is forecast from parts of central and south Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, thunderstorms should develop in areas that warm up sufficiently along residual outflow boundaries. An isolated severe threat should develop during the mid to late afternoon, but predictability appears to be low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, westerly mid-level flow is forecast over the southern U.S., where an unstable airmass is expected to remain in place. As surface temperatures warm each day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should take place. Although instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms in a few areas, predictability remains low. In addition, on Friday convection will be possible ahead of a cold front across parts of the Atlantic Seaboard. Enough instability should be in place during the day for an isolated severe threat. However, the spatial distribution of any potential threat appears to have low predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... The medium-range models move a mid-level trough into the southern and central Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of this airmass Monday afternoon. The greatest convective coverage should be located in parts of central and east Texas, where warm advection is forecast to be maximized. Across the moist airmass, moderate instability will likely be in place by midday. In addition, westerly flow associated with the trough, should be strong enough for a severe threat. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible as a cluster or line of storms moves southeastward into central and east Texas during the afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, the moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states, with the mid-level trough moving into the Ozarks. Model forecasts suggest that numerous thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trough in parts of the Southeast, with more isolated development occurring across the southern Plains. Although a severe threat will be possible across parts of this airmass, mesoscale processes will determine the most favorable areas for severe. It appears that instability will support isolated wind damage and hail, but predictability appears low concerning the spatial distribution of any isolated threat. On Wednesday, the most unstable air is forecast from parts of central and south Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, thunderstorms should develop in areas that warm up sufficiently along residual outflow boundaries. An isolated severe threat should develop during the mid to late afternoon, but predictability appears to be low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, westerly mid-level flow is forecast over the southern U.S., where an unstable airmass is expected to remain in place. As surface temperatures warm each day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should take place. Although instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms in a few areas, predictability remains low. In addition, on Friday convection will be possible ahead of a cold front across parts of the Atlantic Seaboard. Enough instability should be in place during the day for an isolated severe threat. However, the spatial distribution of any potential threat appears to have low predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... The medium-range models move a mid-level trough into the southern and central Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of this airmass Monday afternoon. The greatest convective coverage should be located in parts of central and east Texas, where warm advection is forecast to be maximized. Across the moist airmass, moderate instability will likely be in place by midday. In addition, westerly flow associated with the trough, should be strong enough for a severe threat. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible as a cluster or line of storms moves southeastward into central and east Texas during the afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, the moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states, with the mid-level trough moving into the Ozarks. Model forecasts suggest that numerous thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trough in parts of the Southeast, with more isolated development occurring across the southern Plains. Although a severe threat will be possible across parts of this airmass, mesoscale processes will determine the most favorable areas for severe. It appears that instability will support isolated wind damage and hail, but predictability appears low concerning the spatial distribution of any isolated threat. On Wednesday, the most unstable air is forecast from parts of central and south Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, thunderstorms should develop in areas that warm up sufficiently along residual outflow boundaries. An isolated severe threat should develop during the mid to late afternoon, but predictability appears to be low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, westerly mid-level flow is forecast over the southern U.S., where an unstable airmass is expected to remain in place. As surface temperatures warm each day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should take place. Although instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms in a few areas, predictability remains low. In addition, on Friday convection will be possible ahead of a cold front across parts of the Atlantic Seaboard. Enough instability should be in place during the day for an isolated severe threat. However, the spatial distribution of any potential threat appears to have low predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... The medium-range models move a mid-level trough into the southern and central Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of this airmass Monday afternoon. The greatest convective coverage should be located in parts of central and east Texas, where warm advection is forecast to be maximized. Across the moist airmass, moderate instability will likely be in place by midday. In addition, westerly flow associated with the trough, should be strong enough for a severe threat. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible as a cluster or line of storms moves southeastward into central and east Texas during the afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, the moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states, with the mid-level trough moving into the Ozarks. Model forecasts suggest that numerous thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trough in parts of the Southeast, with more isolated development occurring across the southern Plains. Although a severe threat will be possible across parts of this airmass, mesoscale processes will determine the most favorable areas for severe. It appears that instability will support isolated wind damage and hail, but predictability appears low concerning the spatial distribution of any isolated threat. On Wednesday, the most unstable air is forecast from parts of central and south Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, thunderstorms should develop in areas that warm up sufficiently along residual outflow boundaries. An isolated severe threat should develop during the mid to late afternoon, but predictability appears to be low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, westerly mid-level flow is forecast over the southern U.S., where an unstable airmass is expected to remain in place. As surface temperatures warm each day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should take place. Although instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms in a few areas, predictability remains low. In addition, on Friday convection will be possible ahead of a cold front across parts of the Atlantic Seaboard. Enough instability should be in place during the day for an isolated severe threat. However, the spatial distribution of any potential threat appears to have low predictability. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A marginal severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A broad, moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern U.S. Along the northern edge of this airmass, scattered thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Within this airmass, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F and the lower 70s F. By afternoon, moderate to strong instability is forecast over much of this airmass. The strongest instability is expected from east of a dryline in west Texas northeastward to a front into Oklahoma. These two features will focus low-level convergence and be favorable for convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment, combined with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible in the more intense cores. A tornado threat may also develop with supercells that become dominant, especially as low-level flow strengthens during the early evening. Further east into parts of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas, convective coverage is expected to be greater due to warm advection. Although some of this activity could be elevated, surface-based cells that develop near the strongest instability could have a wind-damage threat. Isolated large hail will also be possible. ...Southeast... Westerly mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Gulf Coast States, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 70s F. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along zones of low-level convergence during the late afternoon. The stronger cells could have potential for severe gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A marginal severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A broad, moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern U.S. Along the northern edge of this airmass, scattered thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Within this airmass, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F and the lower 70s F. By afternoon, moderate to strong instability is forecast over much of this airmass. The strongest instability is expected from east of a dryline in west Texas northeastward to a front into Oklahoma. These two features will focus low-level convergence and be favorable for convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment, combined with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible in the more intense cores. A tornado threat may also develop with supercells that become dominant, especially as low-level flow strengthens during the early evening. Further east into parts of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas, convective coverage is expected to be greater due to warm advection. Although some of this activity could be elevated, surface-based cells that develop near the strongest instability could have a wind-damage threat. Isolated large hail will also be possible. ...Southeast... Westerly mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Gulf Coast States, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 70s F. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along zones of low-level convergence during the late afternoon. The stronger cells could have potential for severe gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A marginal severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A broad, moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern U.S. Along the northern edge of this airmass, scattered thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Within this airmass, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F and the lower 70s F. By afternoon, moderate to strong instability is forecast over much of this airmass. The strongest instability is expected from east of a dryline in west Texas northeastward to a front into Oklahoma. These two features will focus low-level convergence and be favorable for convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment, combined with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible in the more intense cores. A tornado threat may also develop with supercells that become dominant, especially as low-level flow strengthens during the early evening. Further east into parts of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas, convective coverage is expected to be greater due to warm advection. Although some of this activity could be elevated, surface-based cells that develop near the strongest instability could have a wind-damage threat. Isolated large hail will also be possible. ...Southeast... Westerly mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Gulf Coast States, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 70s F. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along zones of low-level convergence during the late afternoon. The stronger cells could have potential for severe gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A marginal severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A broad, moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern U.S. Along the northern edge of this airmass, scattered thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Within this airmass, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F and the lower 70s F. By afternoon, moderate to strong instability is forecast over much of this airmass. The strongest instability is expected from east of a dryline in west Texas northeastward to a front into Oklahoma. These two features will focus low-level convergence and be favorable for convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment, combined with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible in the more intense cores. A tornado threat may also develop with supercells that become dominant, especially as low-level flow strengthens during the early evening. Further east into parts of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas, convective coverage is expected to be greater due to warm advection. Although some of this activity could be elevated, surface-based cells that develop near the strongest instability could have a wind-damage threat. Isolated large hail will also be possible. ...Southeast... Westerly mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Gulf Coast States, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 70s F. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along zones of low-level convergence during the late afternoon. The stronger cells could have potential for severe gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A marginal severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A broad, moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern U.S. Along the northern edge of this airmass, scattered thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Within this airmass, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F and the lower 70s F. By afternoon, moderate to strong instability is forecast over much of this airmass. The strongest instability is expected from east of a dryline in west Texas northeastward to a front into Oklahoma. These two features will focus low-level convergence and be favorable for convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment, combined with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible in the more intense cores. A tornado threat may also develop with supercells that become dominant, especially as low-level flow strengthens during the early evening. Further east into parts of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas, convective coverage is expected to be greater due to warm advection. Although some of this activity could be elevated, surface-based cells that develop near the strongest instability could have a wind-damage threat. Isolated large hail will also be possible. ...Southeast... Westerly mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Gulf Coast States, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 70s F. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along zones of low-level convergence during the late afternoon. The stronger cells could have potential for severe gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A marginal severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A broad, moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern U.S. Along the northern edge of this airmass, scattered thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Within this airmass, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F and the lower 70s F. By afternoon, moderate to strong instability is forecast over much of this airmass. The strongest instability is expected from east of a dryline in west Texas northeastward to a front into Oklahoma. These two features will focus low-level convergence and be favorable for convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment, combined with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible in the more intense cores. A tornado threat may also develop with supercells that become dominant, especially as low-level flow strengthens during the early evening. Further east into parts of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas, convective coverage is expected to be greater due to warm advection. Although some of this activity could be elevated, surface-based cells that develop near the strongest instability could have a wind-damage threat. Isolated large hail will also be possible. ...Southeast... Westerly mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Gulf Coast States, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 70s F. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along zones of low-level convergence during the late afternoon. The stronger cells could have potential for severe gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across part of the southern Plains and western Ozarks on Saturday. Severe wind gusts, large hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter could also occur. Marginally severe storms will also be possible across parts of the central High Plains, and Southeast. ...Southern and Central Plains... At mid-levels, a low will move slowly eastward across the Intermountain West on Saturday, as a ridge moves eastward across the south-central U.S. At the surface, a low will remain over west Texas, with a moist and unstable airmass extending from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Elevated convection is forecast over part of the southern Plains and Ozarks Saturday morning, but this convection should move southeastward during the day, allowing for moderate to strong instability to develop over parts of Oklahoma and north Texas by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the late afternoon within this maximum of instability. Some of the storms could be severe. Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will develop by Saturday afternoon across parts of southwest and central Oklahoma. ECMWF and NAM forecast soundings near the expected maximum of instability increase MLCAPE into the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast in the 35 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 9 C/km. This thermodynamic environment will be favorable for large hail with supercells that form in the late afternoon. The more intense cores could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As a low-level jet strengthens across central Oklahoma, NAM forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity to over 400 m2/s2. This suggest an isolated tornado threat will be possible with the more dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat should also develop. A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to move eastward toward the Ozarks during the evening. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Rockies and High Plains on Saturday. The western edge of a moist airmass will be in place from west Texas north-northwestward into eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, cells will initiate in the higher terrain of southern and central Colorado and in eastern New Mexico. This convection will spread eastward into the High Plains. The environment over the southern and central High Plains is forecast to have steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear. This, along with sufficient instability, should be enough for a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. ...Southeast... West-northwest mid-level flow is forecast over the southeastern U.S. on Saturday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place, with dewpoints in the upper 60 to lower 70s F. As instability increases during the day, isolated thunderstorm development is expected along corridors of enhanced low-level convergence. Although forcing will be weak, enough directional shear in the low to mid-levels should exist for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across part of the southern Plains and western Ozarks on Saturday. Severe wind gusts, large hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter could also occur. Marginally severe storms will also be possible across parts of the central High Plains, and Southeast. ...Southern and Central Plains... At mid-levels, a low will move slowly eastward across the Intermountain West on Saturday, as a ridge moves eastward across the south-central U.S. At the surface, a low will remain over west Texas, with a moist and unstable airmass extending from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Elevated convection is forecast over part of the southern Plains and Ozarks Saturday morning, but this convection should move southeastward during the day, allowing for moderate to strong instability to develop over parts of Oklahoma and north Texas by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the late afternoon within this maximum of instability. Some of the storms could be severe. Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will develop by Saturday afternoon across parts of southwest and central Oklahoma. ECMWF and NAM forecast soundings near the expected maximum of instability increase MLCAPE into the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast in the 35 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 9 C/km. This thermodynamic environment will be favorable for large hail with supercells that form in the late afternoon. The more intense cores could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As a low-level jet strengthens across central Oklahoma, NAM forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity to over 400 m2/s2. This suggest an isolated tornado threat will be possible with the more dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat should also develop. A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to move eastward toward the Ozarks during the evening. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Rockies and High Plains on Saturday. The western edge of a moist airmass will be in place from west Texas north-northwestward into eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, cells will initiate in the higher terrain of southern and central Colorado and in eastern New Mexico. This convection will spread eastward into the High Plains. The environment over the southern and central High Plains is forecast to have steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear. This, along with sufficient instability, should be enough for a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. ...Southeast... West-northwest mid-level flow is forecast over the southeastern U.S. on Saturday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place, with dewpoints in the upper 60 to lower 70s F. As instability increases during the day, isolated thunderstorm development is expected along corridors of enhanced low-level convergence. Although forcing will be weak, enough directional shear in the low to mid-levels should exist for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/23/2025 Read more