Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more