SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Dry southwest flow ahead of an upper-level trough will keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across southern New Mexico and far western Texas for Day 3/Sunday, possibly into Day 4/Monday before the trough translates into the Plains. Another upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will support isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington on Day 3/Sunday, but will be followed by influx of a cool and moist air mass Day 4/Monday. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the Southwest Day 5-8/Tuesday-Friday but weak flow aloft and diffuse pressure gradients under a building ridge should limit wind speeds to sub-critical levels. Diurnally driven convection and isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain of the Central and Northern Rockies and Intermountain West are expected through next week although fuels should remain unsupportive of significant fire spread should lightning ignitions occur. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Dry southwest flow ahead of an upper-level trough will keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across southern New Mexico and far western Texas for Day 3/Sunday, possibly into Day 4/Monday before the trough translates into the Plains. Another upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will support isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington on Day 3/Sunday, but will be followed by influx of a cool and moist air mass Day 4/Monday. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the Southwest Day 5-8/Tuesday-Friday but weak flow aloft and diffuse pressure gradients under a building ridge should limit wind speeds to sub-critical levels. Diurnally driven convection and isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain of the Central and Northern Rockies and Intermountain West are expected through next week although fuels should remain unsupportive of significant fire spread should lightning ignitions occur. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Dry southwest flow ahead of an upper-level trough will keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across southern New Mexico and far western Texas for Day 3/Sunday, possibly into Day 4/Monday before the trough translates into the Plains. Another upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will support isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington on Day 3/Sunday, but will be followed by influx of a cool and moist air mass Day 4/Monday. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the Southwest Day 5-8/Tuesday-Friday but weak flow aloft and diffuse pressure gradients under a building ridge should limit wind speeds to sub-critical levels. Diurnally driven convection and isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain of the Central and Northern Rockies and Intermountain West are expected through next week although fuels should remain unsupportive of significant fire spread should lightning ignitions occur. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Dry southwest flow ahead of an upper-level trough will keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across southern New Mexico and far western Texas for Day 3/Sunday, possibly into Day 4/Monday before the trough translates into the Plains. Another upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will support isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington on Day 3/Sunday, but will be followed by influx of a cool and moist air mass Day 4/Monday. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the Southwest Day 5-8/Tuesday-Friday but weak flow aloft and diffuse pressure gradients under a building ridge should limit wind speeds to sub-critical levels. Diurnally driven convection and isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain of the Central and Northern Rockies and Intermountain West are expected through next week although fuels should remain unsupportive of significant fire spread should lightning ignitions occur. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Dry southwest flow ahead of an upper-level trough will keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across southern New Mexico and far western Texas for Day 3/Sunday, possibly into Day 4/Monday before the trough translates into the Plains. Another upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will support isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington on Day 3/Sunday, but will be followed by influx of a cool and moist air mass Day 4/Monday. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the Southwest Day 5-8/Tuesday-Friday but weak flow aloft and diffuse pressure gradients under a building ridge should limit wind speeds to sub-critical levels. Diurnally driven convection and isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain of the Central and Northern Rockies and Intermountain West are expected through next week although fuels should remain unsupportive of significant fire spread should lightning ignitions occur. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Dry southwest flow ahead of an upper-level trough will keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across southern New Mexico and far western Texas for Day 3/Sunday, possibly into Day 4/Monday before the trough translates into the Plains. Another upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will support isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington on Day 3/Sunday, but will be followed by influx of a cool and moist air mass Day 4/Monday. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the Southwest Day 5-8/Tuesday-Friday but weak flow aloft and diffuse pressure gradients under a building ridge should limit wind speeds to sub-critical levels. Diurnally driven convection and isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain of the Central and Northern Rockies and Intermountain West are expected through next week although fuels should remain unsupportive of significant fire spread should lightning ignitions occur. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Dry southwest flow ahead of an upper-level trough will keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across southern New Mexico and far western Texas for Day 3/Sunday, possibly into Day 4/Monday before the trough translates into the Plains. Another upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will support isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington on Day 3/Sunday, but will be followed by influx of a cool and moist air mass Day 4/Monday. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the Southwest Day 5-8/Tuesday-Friday but weak flow aloft and diffuse pressure gradients under a building ridge should limit wind speeds to sub-critical levels. Diurnally driven convection and isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain of the Central and Northern Rockies and Intermountain West are expected through next week although fuels should remain unsupportive of significant fire spread should lightning ignitions occur. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Dry southwest flow ahead of an upper-level trough will keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across southern New Mexico and far western Texas for Day 3/Sunday, possibly into Day 4/Monday before the trough translates into the Plains. Another upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will support isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington on Day 3/Sunday, but will be followed by influx of a cool and moist air mass Day 4/Monday. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the Southwest Day 5-8/Tuesday-Friday but weak flow aloft and diffuse pressure gradients under a building ridge should limit wind speeds to sub-critical levels. Diurnally driven convection and isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain of the Central and Northern Rockies and Intermountain West are expected through next week although fuels should remain unsupportive of significant fire spread should lightning ignitions occur. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Dry southwest flow ahead of an upper-level trough will keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across southern New Mexico and far western Texas for Day 3/Sunday, possibly into Day 4/Monday before the trough translates into the Plains. Another upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will support isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington on Day 3/Sunday, but will be followed by influx of a cool and moist air mass Day 4/Monday. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the Southwest Day 5-8/Tuesday-Friday but weak flow aloft and diffuse pressure gradients under a building ridge should limit wind speeds to sub-critical levels. Diurnally driven convection and isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain of the Central and Northern Rockies and Intermountain West are expected through next week although fuels should remain unsupportive of significant fire spread should lightning ignitions occur. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Dry southwest flow ahead of an upper-level trough will keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across southern New Mexico and far western Texas for Day 3/Sunday, possibly into Day 4/Monday before the trough translates into the Plains. Another upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will support isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington on Day 3/Sunday, but will be followed by influx of a cool and moist air mass Day 4/Monday. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the Southwest Day 5-8/Tuesday-Friday but weak flow aloft and diffuse pressure gradients under a building ridge should limit wind speeds to sub-critical levels. Diurnally driven convection and isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain of the Central and Northern Rockies and Intermountain West are expected through next week although fuels should remain unsupportive of significant fire spread should lightning ignitions occur. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Dry southwest flow ahead of an upper-level trough will keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across southern New Mexico and far western Texas for Day 3/Sunday, possibly into Day 4/Monday before the trough translates into the Plains. Another upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will support isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington on Day 3/Sunday, but will be followed by influx of a cool and moist air mass Day 4/Monday. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the Southwest Day 5-8/Tuesday-Friday but weak flow aloft and diffuse pressure gradients under a building ridge should limit wind speeds to sub-critical levels. Diurnally driven convection and isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain of the Central and Northern Rockies and Intermountain West are expected through next week although fuels should remain unsupportive of significant fire spread should lightning ignitions occur. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Dry southwest flow ahead of an upper-level trough will keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across southern New Mexico and far western Texas for Day 3/Sunday, possibly into Day 4/Monday before the trough translates into the Plains. Another upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will support isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington on Day 3/Sunday, but will be followed by influx of a cool and moist air mass Day 4/Monday. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the Southwest Day 5-8/Tuesday-Friday but weak flow aloft and diffuse pressure gradients under a building ridge should limit wind speeds to sub-critical levels. Diurnally driven convection and isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain of the Central and Northern Rockies and Intermountain West are expected through next week although fuels should remain unsupportive of significant fire spread should lightning ignitions occur. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Dry southwest flow ahead of an upper-level trough will keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across southern New Mexico and far western Texas for Day 3/Sunday, possibly into Day 4/Monday before the trough translates into the Plains. Another upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will support isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington on Day 3/Sunday, but will be followed by influx of a cool and moist air mass Day 4/Monday. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the Southwest Day 5-8/Tuesday-Friday but weak flow aloft and diffuse pressure gradients under a building ridge should limit wind speeds to sub-critical levels. Diurnally driven convection and isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain of the Central and Northern Rockies and Intermountain West are expected through next week although fuels should remain unsupportive of significant fire spread should lightning ignitions occur. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Dry southwest flow ahead of an upper-level trough will keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across southern New Mexico and far western Texas for Day 3/Sunday, possibly into Day 4/Monday before the trough translates into the Plains. Another upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will support isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington on Day 3/Sunday, but will be followed by influx of a cool and moist air mass Day 4/Monday. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the Southwest Day 5-8/Tuesday-Friday but weak flow aloft and diffuse pressure gradients under a building ridge should limit wind speeds to sub-critical levels. Diurnally driven convection and isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain of the Central and Northern Rockies and Intermountain West are expected through next week although fuels should remain unsupportive of significant fire spread should lightning ignitions occur. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Dry southwest flow ahead of an upper-level trough will keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across southern New Mexico and far western Texas for Day 3/Sunday, possibly into Day 4/Monday before the trough translates into the Plains. Another upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will support isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington on Day 3/Sunday, but will be followed by influx of a cool and moist air mass Day 4/Monday. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the Southwest Day 5-8/Tuesday-Friday but weak flow aloft and diffuse pressure gradients under a building ridge should limit wind speeds to sub-critical levels. Diurnally driven convection and isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain of the Central and Northern Rockies and Intermountain West are expected through next week although fuels should remain unsupportive of significant fire spread should lightning ignitions occur. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 941

2 months 3 weeks ago
MD 0941 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE TRANS-PECOS AND STOCKTON PLATEAU OF WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0941 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Areas affected...The Trans-Pecos and Stockton Plateau of West Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 231949Z - 232145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail stones will be possible across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Stockton Plateau through late this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convective temperatures have easily been reached under a mid-level ridge axis this afternoon along and ahead of a dryline beginning to mix eastward into portions of West TX. Visible satellite and radar imagery both indicate moist convection is deepening east of the Davis Mountains, where a well mixed boundary layer is in place. An unstable air mass should continue to result in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon. The main concern with this activity will be severe wind gusts given large dewpoint-temperature spreads/inverted V profiles, and downdraft CAPE ~2000 J/kg. This may especially be true by late this afternoon if storm mergers occur. Severe hail also cannot be ruled out with steep mid level lapse rates in place and a slight increase in mid to upper-level flow anticipated over the next couple of hours. However, the threat of severe hail may be mitigated by high freezing levels and a lack of significant organization due to limiting deep layer effective shear. A weather watch is not expected at this time. ..Barnes/Guyer.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30060421 30400443 30790441 31270433 31610411 31830357 31580290 31490242 31120213 30680210 30240219 30060267 29920323 29860370 30060421 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC MD 940

2 months 3 weeks ago
MD 0940 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0940 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Wyoming...southwestern Nebraska...northeastern Colorado...northwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 231853Z - 232130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity will begin to initiate to the east of the Front Range during the next few hours, particularly to the east/southeast of Cheyenne, with a couple of intensifying supercells posing increasing potential for severe weather by late afternoon. Trends are being monitored for a watch. DISCUSSION...Stronger boundary-layer destabilization the past few hours has been focused to the lee of the Front Range, in a corridor from southeastern Wyoming through northeastern Colorado. Mixed-layer CAPE now appears to be increasing in excess of 1000-1500 J/kg, and notable 2-hourly surface pressure falls on the order of 2-3 mb have recently been observed across the Akron CO through Cheyenne WY vicinity. Deepening convective development is ongoing across the higher terrain, particularly in a narrow plume near the Colorado/Wyoming state border to the west of Cheyenne. As inhibition continues to weaken with further insolation, perhaps aided by a subtle mid-level perturbation developing to the east of the Front Range, thunderstorm initiation appears increasingly probable through 20-22Z. Both HREF and NCEP SREF indicate highest calibrated thunderstorm probabilities initially focused along the southern slopes of the Cheyenne Ridge (supported by current trends), before increasing southeastward across northeast Colorado toward northwest Kansas. Beneath modest (but strongly sheared) westerly deep-layer mean flow, a couple of supercells are likely to evolve while slowly propagating eastward/southeastward into/across the high plains. As this occurs, it appears that thermodynamic profiles will become increasingly conducive to large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps some risk for a brief/weak tornado. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41140503 42060426 41500263 40550210 39990134 39110120 38730232 39030292 39760331 41140503 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC May 23, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more