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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ...Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ...Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ...Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ...Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ...Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ...Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ...Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ...Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ...Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ...Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ...Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ...Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more