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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains... A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country, with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass. Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe gusts would be possible. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon. Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains... A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country, with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass. Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe gusts would be possible. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon. Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains... A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country, with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass. Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe gusts would be possible. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon. Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains... A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country, with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass. Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe gusts would be possible. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon. Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains... A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country, with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass. Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe gusts would be possible. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon. Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains... A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country, with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass. Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe gusts would be possible. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon. Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains... A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country, with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass. Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe gusts would be possible. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon. Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains... A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country, with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass. Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe gusts would be possible. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon. Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains... A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country, with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass. Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe gusts would be possible. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon. Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains... A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country, with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass. Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe gusts would be possible. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon. Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains... A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country, with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass. Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe gusts would be possible. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon. Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains... A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country, with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass. Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe gusts would be possible. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon. Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains... A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country, with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass. Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe gusts would be possible. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon. Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains... A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country, with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass. Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe gusts would be possible. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon. Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

WW 0320 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 320 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE LAA TO 20 NNW GLD. ..LEITMAN..05/25/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 320 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC071-109-181-193-199-203-250740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY LOGAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0321 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 321 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..05/25/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...DDC...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 321 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-250740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC007-009-015-019-021-025-033-035-037-047-049-055-057-069-073- 077-079-081-083-095-097-099-101-119-125-133-135-145-151-155-159- 165-171-173-175-185-191-205-207-250740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CLARK COMANCHE COWLEY CRAWFORD EDWARDS ELK FINNEY FORD GRAY GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY HASKELL HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA LABETTE LANE MEADE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH SCOTT Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ...Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ...Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ...Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ...Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2025 Read more