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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in association with convective clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong to damaging gusts. ...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime... Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish, outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development. Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally severe gusts or marginal hail. ...West-central into central and southeast TX... Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+ dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should experience strong to severe wind gusts. ...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle... Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late, with marginal wind and hail risk. ..Jewell.. 05/25/2025 Read more