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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ...Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 Read more

MD 0963 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 320... FOR EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0963 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Areas affected...East-central CO into western KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 320... Valid 250434Z - 250600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 320 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe storms will remain possible overnight. DISCUSSION...An earlier cluster of storms over east-central CO has weakened somewhat over the last hour, though persistent redevelopment is occurring along its southwest flank, and there is some indication that a weak MCV has formed in association with this convection. Convection will tend to remain elevated overnight as it spreads east-southeastward, but MUCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support occasionally organized storms and perhaps an elevated bowing cluster overnight, with a threat of at least isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. Additional elevated storms may eventually develop downstream of the ongoing cluster, within a low-level warm advection regime. These storms could also pose an isolated hail threat. With some severe potential expected to continue overnight, downstream watch issuance is possible. ..Dean/Mosier.. 05/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39300282 39280226 39090077 38910003 38419959 37919972 37610005 37660037 37830178 38030246 38310308 38500334 38690340 38930301 39070285 39180284 39300282 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0962 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 319... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0962 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Areas affected...Parts of western/central OK Concerning...Tornado Watch 319... Valid 250412Z - 250545Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 319 continues. SUMMARY...Some supercell threat may persist past Midnight CDT. DISCUSSION...Two small supercells developed this evening across northwest OK. However, despite the presence of strong to extreme instability, these cells have struggled to grow and maintain severe intensity, likely due to lingering warm temperatures aloft and a lack of stronger large-scale ascent. A strengthening low-level jet is noted on recent VWPs from KOUN and KFDR, and this may yet allow for some intensification of the remaining supercell, and/or development of new storms near/north of the quasi-stationary front. In the short term, some threat for all severe hazards cannot be ruled out with the ongoing supercell through and past Midnight CDT, though increasing MLCINH may limit its longevity. Any new development may tend to be slightly elevated, but could still pose a severe threat given the favorable instability and shear across the region. ..Dean.. 05/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 36019969 36069838 35919778 35749756 35369747 35159804 34969851 34989903 35089967 36019969 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0320 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 320 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW LHX TO 5 ESE ITR TO 25 NNW GLD. ..LEITMAN..05/25/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 320 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-061-250640- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIOWA KSC071-109-181-193-199-203-250640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY LOGAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FSI TO 35 WSW END. ..LEITMAN..05/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-031-051-137-250640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE GRADY STEPHENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FSI TO 35 WSW END. ..LEITMAN..05/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-031-051-137-250640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE GRADY STEPHENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FSI TO 35 WSW END. ..LEITMAN..05/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-031-051-137-250640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE GRADY STEPHENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FSI TO 35 WSW END. ..LEITMAN..05/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-031-051-137-250640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE GRADY STEPHENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FSI TO 35 WSW END. ..LEITMAN..05/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-031-051-137-250640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE GRADY STEPHENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FSI TO 35 WSW END. ..LEITMAN..05/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-031-051-137-250640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE GRADY STEPHENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 319 TORNADO OK 250215Z - 250900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 319 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 915 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 915 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A few supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes and very large hail, are possible across western OK this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Clinton OK to 10 miles south of Chickasha OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more