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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...20Z Updates... Only minor changes to the MRGL risk area in southeast Colorado where dewpoints have held in the upper 50s F. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A very dry boundary layer will remain in place across the Southwest with poor relative humidity recoveries of less than 20 percent to start Day 2/Saturday. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover into the Southwest should attenuate boundary layer mixing, allowing surface winds to largely remain below Critical thresholds. Elevated highlights were maintained across eastern Arizona, southeastern Utah/western Colorado and much of south-central/western New Mexico where fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will shift across the Southwest on Saturday. Enhanced mid-level flow will largely pass overnight D1/Friday into D2/Saturday, with relaxing pressure gradients through the day. Though afternoon relative humidity will remain low (around 10 percent), this relaxing gradient will keep winds largely below Critical values. In addition, an increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected which may limit mixing. In more favored downslope regions, locally stronger winds will be possible and support periods of localized Critical fire weather. Overall, the broad Elevated delineation was maintained where highest confidence in sustained Elevated conditions were expected across eastern Arizona into southeastern Utah and across south-central/western New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more