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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across part of the southern Plains to the Southeast Saturday. Severe wind gusts, large hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter could also occur. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Amplified and split mid-level flow is expected across much of the western and central CONUS D2/Saturday. A broad southern stream trough will deepen over the Southwestern states while strong ridging aloft intensifies farther north. Over the eastern US, a belt of stronger mid-level flow will advance around the southern periphery of an upper low over the Great lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a weak lee low is expected across southeastern CO and western KS with a partially modified warm front/composite outflow stretching east/southeastward. Weak upslope flow is expected north of the boundary across the central high plains, while a trailing dryline will slowly mix eastward into the southern High Plains and west Texas with diurnal heating. ...Southern Plains to the MS Valley and Southeast... A complex convective day is expected as a cluster of elevated storms or a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from southern/southeastern KS into north-central/northeast OK. Likely located along the aforementioned stalled front, these early morning storms may reinforce the boundary as they continue southeastward into the lower MS Valley. Destabilization ahead of, and re-intensification of the cluster appears possible into parts of the MS and TN Valleys Saturday afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear for an organized MCS. This would support a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two from eastern OK, through the Ozarks and into the Southeast. Across southern KS, OK and into the eastern TX Panhandle, uncertainty remains high on the location of the convectively reinforced outflow boundary and its impact on the warm sector. The primary severe corridor is expected to be along and south of the boundary and where it meets the surface low to the west. Rich low-level moisture (70s F surface dewpoints) are expected by early afternoon beneath steep mid-level lase rates of 8-9 C/km. While forcing for ascent is not expected to be overly strong, owing to weak shortwave ridging aloft, robust heating and 500 mb temperatures near -10 C should allow for isolated convection to develop along and south of the composite front/triple point. Moderate deep-layer shear and very large buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) would support risk for supercells with very large hail and damaging gusts. A conditional risk for couple of tornadoes may also develop as backed low-level flow increases along the composite front. Additional low-level hodograph expansion is expected into the evening as the low-level jet (35-40 kt at 850 mb) is forecast to increase across central and eastern OK. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with the potential for wind damage also appears likely into the overnight hours on Saturday and early D3/Sunday. ...West Texas... Shortwave ridging ahead of the primary upper trough to the west will result in neutral to slight mid-level height rises over much of the High Plains and west TX Saturday. This suggests ascent will be subtle with warm mid-level temperatures (H700 14C). The strong capping, in combination with weak ascent, may limit robust convective initiation along the dryline trailing from the surface low. However, weak convergence and very warm surface temperatures (near or exceeding 100F) may allow for isolated storms by late afternoon. Should this occur, 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear could support slow-moving supercells or clusters with a risk for hail, and damaging outflow gusts. ...Central High Plains... A narrow plume of surface moisture will extend westward across eastern CO and the central High Plains with easterly upslope flow. Widespread cloud cover and stratus is expected early, but some clearing is possible as mixing increases through the day. Supported by the upslope flow regime and subtle mid-level ascent from the approaching Southwest US trough, isolated convection is possible along the front Range and High plains by early afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and 25-40 kt of mid-level flow could support storm organization with supercells or clusters. Hail and damaging winds are most probable, though a tornado cannot be ruled out given relatively strong low-level veering and local-terrain influences. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across part of the southern Plains to the Southeast Saturday. Severe wind gusts, large hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter could also occur. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Amplified and split mid-level flow is expected across much of the western and central CONUS D2/Saturday. A broad southern stream trough will deepen over the Southwestern states while strong ridging aloft intensifies farther north. Over the eastern US, a belt of stronger mid-level flow will advance around the southern periphery of an upper low over the Great lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a weak lee low is expected across southeastern CO and western KS with a partially modified warm front/composite outflow stretching east/southeastward. Weak upslope flow is expected north of the boundary across the central high plains, while a trailing dryline will slowly mix eastward into the southern High Plains and west Texas with diurnal heating. ...Southern Plains to the MS Valley and Southeast... A complex convective day is expected as a cluster of elevated storms or a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from southern/southeastern KS into north-central/northeast OK. Likely located along the aforementioned stalled front, these early morning storms may reinforce the boundary as they continue southeastward into the lower MS Valley. Destabilization ahead of, and re-intensification of the cluster appears possible into parts of the MS and TN Valleys Saturday afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear for an organized MCS. This would support a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two from eastern OK, through the Ozarks and into the Southeast. Across southern KS, OK and into the eastern TX Panhandle, uncertainty remains high on the location of the convectively reinforced outflow boundary and its impact on the warm sector. The primary severe corridor is expected to be along and south of the boundary and where it meets the surface low to the west. Rich low-level moisture (70s F surface dewpoints) are expected by early afternoon beneath steep mid-level lase rates of 8-9 C/km. While forcing for ascent is not expected to be overly strong, owing to weak shortwave ridging aloft, robust heating and 500 mb temperatures near -10 C should allow for isolated convection to develop along and south of the composite front/triple point. Moderate deep-layer shear and very large buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) would support risk for supercells with very large hail and damaging gusts. A conditional risk for couple of tornadoes may also develop as backed low-level flow increases along the composite front. Additional low-level hodograph expansion is expected into the evening as the low-level jet (35-40 kt at 850 mb) is forecast to increase across central and eastern OK. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with the potential for wind damage also appears likely into the overnight hours on Saturday and early D3/Sunday. ...West Texas... Shortwave ridging ahead of the primary upper trough to the west will result in neutral to slight mid-level height rises over much of the High Plains and west TX Saturday. This suggests ascent will be subtle with warm mid-level temperatures (H700 14C). The strong capping, in combination with weak ascent, may limit robust convective initiation along the dryline trailing from the surface low. However, weak convergence and very warm surface temperatures (near or exceeding 100F) may allow for isolated storms by late afternoon. Should this occur, 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear could support slow-moving supercells or clusters with a risk for hail, and damaging outflow gusts. ...Central High Plains... A narrow plume of surface moisture will extend westward across eastern CO and the central High Plains with easterly upslope flow. Widespread cloud cover and stratus is expected early, but some clearing is possible as mixing increases through the day. Supported by the upslope flow regime and subtle mid-level ascent from the approaching Southwest US trough, isolated convection is possible along the front Range and High plains by early afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and 25-40 kt of mid-level flow could support storm organization with supercells or clusters. Hail and damaging winds are most probable, though a tornado cannot be ruled out given relatively strong low-level veering and local-terrain influences. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across part of the southern Plains to the Southeast Saturday. Severe wind gusts, large hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter could also occur. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Amplified and split mid-level flow is expected across much of the western and central CONUS D2/Saturday. A broad southern stream trough will deepen over the Southwestern states while strong ridging aloft intensifies farther north. Over the eastern US, a belt of stronger mid-level flow will advance around the southern periphery of an upper low over the Great lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a weak lee low is expected across southeastern CO and western KS with a partially modified warm front/composite outflow stretching east/southeastward. Weak upslope flow is expected north of the boundary across the central high plains, while a trailing dryline will slowly mix eastward into the southern High Plains and west Texas with diurnal heating. ...Southern Plains to the MS Valley and Southeast... A complex convective day is expected as a cluster of elevated storms or a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from southern/southeastern KS into north-central/northeast OK. Likely located along the aforementioned stalled front, these early morning storms may reinforce the boundary as they continue southeastward into the lower MS Valley. Destabilization ahead of, and re-intensification of the cluster appears possible into parts of the MS and TN Valleys Saturday afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear for an organized MCS. This would support a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two from eastern OK, through the Ozarks and into the Southeast. Across southern KS, OK and into the eastern TX Panhandle, uncertainty remains high on the location of the convectively reinforced outflow boundary and its impact on the warm sector. The primary severe corridor is expected to be along and south of the boundary and where it meets the surface low to the west. Rich low-level moisture (70s F surface dewpoints) are expected by early afternoon beneath steep mid-level lase rates of 8-9 C/km. While forcing for ascent is not expected to be overly strong, owing to weak shortwave ridging aloft, robust heating and 500 mb temperatures near -10 C should allow for isolated convection to develop along and south of the composite front/triple point. Moderate deep-layer shear and very large buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) would support risk for supercells with very large hail and damaging gusts. A conditional risk for couple of tornadoes may also develop as backed low-level flow increases along the composite front. Additional low-level hodograph expansion is expected into the evening as the low-level jet (35-40 kt at 850 mb) is forecast to increase across central and eastern OK. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with the potential for wind damage also appears likely into the overnight hours on Saturday and early D3/Sunday. ...West Texas... Shortwave ridging ahead of the primary upper trough to the west will result in neutral to slight mid-level height rises over much of the High Plains and west TX Saturday. This suggests ascent will be subtle with warm mid-level temperatures (H700 14C). The strong capping, in combination with weak ascent, may limit robust convective initiation along the dryline trailing from the surface low. However, weak convergence and very warm surface temperatures (near or exceeding 100F) may allow for isolated storms by late afternoon. Should this occur, 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear could support slow-moving supercells or clusters with a risk for hail, and damaging outflow gusts. ...Central High Plains... A narrow plume of surface moisture will extend westward across eastern CO and the central High Plains with easterly upslope flow. Widespread cloud cover and stratus is expected early, but some clearing is possible as mixing increases through the day. Supported by the upslope flow regime and subtle mid-level ascent from the approaching Southwest US trough, isolated convection is possible along the front Range and High plains by early afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and 25-40 kt of mid-level flow could support storm organization with supercells or clusters. Hail and damaging winds are most probable, though a tornado cannot be ruled out given relatively strong low-level veering and local-terrain influences. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... Dry southwest flow across much of the southwestern U.S. is expected today. Greatest fire weather concern remains across the Mogollon Rim and west-central New Mexico where southwest winds of 15-20 mph amid single digit relative humidity and dry fuels overlap. No significant changes to Elevated or Critical Highlights were needed across the Southwest as previous forecast remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of an approaching wave across southwestern US today, bringing an increase in southwest surface winds. A very dry air mass and deeply mixed profiles will support relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent (as low as 5-10 percent) and sustained winds 15-20 mph across much Arizona into New Mexico. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona into western New Mexico are receptive to fire spread, with ERCs near the 75th-90th percentile. As such, these are the areas where Critical highlights have been maintained, with broader Elevated highlights across much of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Elevated conditions will also extend into eastern Utah and western Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... Dry southwest flow across much of the southwestern U.S. is expected today. Greatest fire weather concern remains across the Mogollon Rim and west-central New Mexico where southwest winds of 15-20 mph amid single digit relative humidity and dry fuels overlap. No significant changes to Elevated or Critical Highlights were needed across the Southwest as previous forecast remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of an approaching wave across southwestern US today, bringing an increase in southwest surface winds. A very dry air mass and deeply mixed profiles will support relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent (as low as 5-10 percent) and sustained winds 15-20 mph across much Arizona into New Mexico. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona into western New Mexico are receptive to fire spread, with ERCs near the 75th-90th percentile. As such, these are the areas where Critical highlights have been maintained, with broader Elevated highlights across much of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Elevated conditions will also extend into eastern Utah and western Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... Dry southwest flow across much of the southwestern U.S. is expected today. Greatest fire weather concern remains across the Mogollon Rim and west-central New Mexico where southwest winds of 15-20 mph amid single digit relative humidity and dry fuels overlap. No significant changes to Elevated or Critical Highlights were needed across the Southwest as previous forecast remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of an approaching wave across southwestern US today, bringing an increase in southwest surface winds. A very dry air mass and deeply mixed profiles will support relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent (as low as 5-10 percent) and sustained winds 15-20 mph across much Arizona into New Mexico. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona into western New Mexico are receptive to fire spread, with ERCs near the 75th-90th percentile. As such, these are the areas where Critical highlights have been maintained, with broader Elevated highlights across much of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Elevated conditions will also extend into eastern Utah and western Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... Dry southwest flow across much of the southwestern U.S. is expected today. Greatest fire weather concern remains across the Mogollon Rim and west-central New Mexico where southwest winds of 15-20 mph amid single digit relative humidity and dry fuels overlap. No significant changes to Elevated or Critical Highlights were needed across the Southwest as previous forecast remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of an approaching wave across southwestern US today, bringing an increase in southwest surface winds. A very dry air mass and deeply mixed profiles will support relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent (as low as 5-10 percent) and sustained winds 15-20 mph across much Arizona into New Mexico. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona into western New Mexico are receptive to fire spread, with ERCs near the 75th-90th percentile. As such, these are the areas where Critical highlights have been maintained, with broader Elevated highlights across much of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Elevated conditions will also extend into eastern Utah and western Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... Dry southwest flow across much of the southwestern U.S. is expected today. Greatest fire weather concern remains across the Mogollon Rim and west-central New Mexico where southwest winds of 15-20 mph amid single digit relative humidity and dry fuels overlap. No significant changes to Elevated or Critical Highlights were needed across the Southwest as previous forecast remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of an approaching wave across southwestern US today, bringing an increase in southwest surface winds. A very dry air mass and deeply mixed profiles will support relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent (as low as 5-10 percent) and sustained winds 15-20 mph across much Arizona into New Mexico. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona into western New Mexico are receptive to fire spread, with ERCs near the 75th-90th percentile. As such, these are the areas where Critical highlights have been maintained, with broader Elevated highlights across much of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Elevated conditions will also extend into eastern Utah and western Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... Dry southwest flow across much of the southwestern U.S. is expected today. Greatest fire weather concern remains across the Mogollon Rim and west-central New Mexico where southwest winds of 15-20 mph amid single digit relative humidity and dry fuels overlap. No significant changes to Elevated or Critical Highlights were needed across the Southwest as previous forecast remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of an approaching wave across southwestern US today, bringing an increase in southwest surface winds. A very dry air mass and deeply mixed profiles will support relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent (as low as 5-10 percent) and sustained winds 15-20 mph across much Arizona into New Mexico. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona into western New Mexico are receptive to fire spread, with ERCs near the 75th-90th percentile. As such, these are the areas where Critical highlights have been maintained, with broader Elevated highlights across much of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Elevated conditions will also extend into eastern Utah and western Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... Dry southwest flow across much of the southwestern U.S. is expected today. Greatest fire weather concern remains across the Mogollon Rim and west-central New Mexico where southwest winds of 15-20 mph amid single digit relative humidity and dry fuels overlap. No significant changes to Elevated or Critical Highlights were needed across the Southwest as previous forecast remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of an approaching wave across southwestern US today, bringing an increase in southwest surface winds. A very dry air mass and deeply mixed profiles will support relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent (as low as 5-10 percent) and sustained winds 15-20 mph across much Arizona into New Mexico. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona into western New Mexico are receptive to fire spread, with ERCs near the 75th-90th percentile. As such, these are the areas where Critical highlights have been maintained, with broader Elevated highlights across much of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Elevated conditions will also extend into eastern Utah and western Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... Dry southwest flow across much of the southwestern U.S. is expected today. Greatest fire weather concern remains across the Mogollon Rim and west-central New Mexico where southwest winds of 15-20 mph amid single digit relative humidity and dry fuels overlap. No significant changes to Elevated or Critical Highlights were needed across the Southwest as previous forecast remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of an approaching wave across southwestern US today, bringing an increase in southwest surface winds. A very dry air mass and deeply mixed profiles will support relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent (as low as 5-10 percent) and sustained winds 15-20 mph across much Arizona into New Mexico. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona into western New Mexico are receptive to fire spread, with ERCs near the 75th-90th percentile. As such, these are the areas where Critical highlights have been maintained, with broader Elevated highlights across much of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Elevated conditions will also extend into eastern Utah and western Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... Dry southwest flow across much of the southwestern U.S. is expected today. Greatest fire weather concern remains across the Mogollon Rim and west-central New Mexico where southwest winds of 15-20 mph amid single digit relative humidity and dry fuels overlap. No significant changes to Elevated or Critical Highlights were needed across the Southwest as previous forecast remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of an approaching wave across southwestern US today, bringing an increase in southwest surface winds. A very dry air mass and deeply mixed profiles will support relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent (as low as 5-10 percent) and sustained winds 15-20 mph across much Arizona into New Mexico. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona into western New Mexico are receptive to fire spread, with ERCs near the 75th-90th percentile. As such, these are the areas where Critical highlights have been maintained, with broader Elevated highlights across much of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Elevated conditions will also extend into eastern Utah and western Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... Dry southwest flow across much of the southwestern U.S. is expected today. Greatest fire weather concern remains across the Mogollon Rim and west-central New Mexico where southwest winds of 15-20 mph amid single digit relative humidity and dry fuels overlap. No significant changes to Elevated or Critical Highlights were needed across the Southwest as previous forecast remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of an approaching wave across southwestern US today, bringing an increase in southwest surface winds. A very dry air mass and deeply mixed profiles will support relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent (as low as 5-10 percent) and sustained winds 15-20 mph across much Arizona into New Mexico. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona into western New Mexico are receptive to fire spread, with ERCs near the 75th-90th percentile. As such, these are the areas where Critical highlights have been maintained, with broader Elevated highlights across much of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Elevated conditions will also extend into eastern Utah and western Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... Dry southwest flow across much of the southwestern U.S. is expected today. Greatest fire weather concern remains across the Mogollon Rim and west-central New Mexico where southwest winds of 15-20 mph amid single digit relative humidity and dry fuels overlap. No significant changes to Elevated or Critical Highlights were needed across the Southwest as previous forecast remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of an approaching wave across southwestern US today, bringing an increase in southwest surface winds. A very dry air mass and deeply mixed profiles will support relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent (as low as 5-10 percent) and sustained winds 15-20 mph across much Arizona into New Mexico. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona into western New Mexico are receptive to fire spread, with ERCs near the 75th-90th percentile. As such, these are the areas where Critical highlights have been maintained, with broader Elevated highlights across much of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Elevated conditions will also extend into eastern Utah and western Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... Dry southwest flow across much of the southwestern U.S. is expected today. Greatest fire weather concern remains across the Mogollon Rim and west-central New Mexico where southwest winds of 15-20 mph amid single digit relative humidity and dry fuels overlap. No significant changes to Elevated or Critical Highlights were needed across the Southwest as previous forecast remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of an approaching wave across southwestern US today, bringing an increase in southwest surface winds. A very dry air mass and deeply mixed profiles will support relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent (as low as 5-10 percent) and sustained winds 15-20 mph across much Arizona into New Mexico. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona into western New Mexico are receptive to fire spread, with ERCs near the 75th-90th percentile. As such, these are the areas where Critical highlights have been maintained, with broader Elevated highlights across much of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Elevated conditions will also extend into eastern Utah and western Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... Dry southwest flow across much of the southwestern U.S. is expected today. Greatest fire weather concern remains across the Mogollon Rim and west-central New Mexico where southwest winds of 15-20 mph amid single digit relative humidity and dry fuels overlap. No significant changes to Elevated or Critical Highlights were needed across the Southwest as previous forecast remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of an approaching wave across southwestern US today, bringing an increase in southwest surface winds. A very dry air mass and deeply mixed profiles will support relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent (as low as 5-10 percent) and sustained winds 15-20 mph across much Arizona into New Mexico. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona into western New Mexico are receptive to fire spread, with ERCs near the 75th-90th percentile. As such, these are the areas where Critical highlights have been maintained, with broader Elevated highlights across much of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Elevated conditions will also extend into eastern Utah and western Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... Dry southwest flow across much of the southwestern U.S. is expected today. Greatest fire weather concern remains across the Mogollon Rim and west-central New Mexico where southwest winds of 15-20 mph amid single digit relative humidity and dry fuels overlap. No significant changes to Elevated or Critical Highlights were needed across the Southwest as previous forecast remains on track. ..Williams.. 05/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of an approaching wave across southwestern US today, bringing an increase in southwest surface winds. A very dry air mass and deeply mixed profiles will support relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent (as low as 5-10 percent) and sustained winds 15-20 mph across much Arizona into New Mexico. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona into western New Mexico are receptive to fire spread, with ERCs near the 75th-90th percentile. As such, these are the areas where Critical highlights have been maintained, with broader Elevated highlights across much of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Elevated conditions will also extend into eastern Utah and western Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Barnes.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Barnes.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ...Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ...Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ...Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ...Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Barnes.. 05/23/2025 Read more