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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ...Plains... Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley. With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the severe threat Sunday. Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight with a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However, some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that develop and spread eastward. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast. Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air mass will be favorable for additional storm development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail, appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air advection regime over much of the Southeast. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

MD 0939 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0939 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Areas affected...southern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 231609Z - 231915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development, possibly including an isolated supercell or two, may initiate during the next 1-2 hours along the Atlantic coast sea-breeze, particularly near or north-northwest of the Palm Beach vicinity, before gradually increasing through late afternoon across the interior southern peninsula. DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is evident along the Atlantic coast sea-breeze, south of Melbourne into the Palm Beach vicinity. This is where the latest objective analysis indicates that mid-level inhibition is weakening in response to insolation, as heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer contributes to mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg. Stronger low-level confluence/convergence currently appears focused near/northwest of the Palm Beach vicinity, where isolated intensifying thunderstorm development might be most probable through 17-18Z. In the presence of moderate westerly shear, beneath broadly cyclonic, 30+ kt westerly mid-level flow and relatively cool mid-level temperatures, the evolution of a supercell posing a risk for large hail and perhaps a brief tornado appears possible. Thereafter, a gradual further increase in scattered thunderstorm development appears possible with continued destabilization along/ahead of slowly inland advancing Atlantic and Gulf coast sea-breezes. Aided by interactions with outflow and, perhaps, gravity waves generated by earlier initiating convection, the convective evolution remains unclear, but widely scattered stronger cells across the interior southern peninsula may be accompanied by a risk for marginally severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 27498104 28038058 26948002 25658004 25518074 25698082 26098146 26618153 27048147 27498104 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

546
ABPZ20 KNHC 231743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri May 23 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle of next week while
moving westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across part of the southern Plains to the Southeast Saturday. Severe wind gusts, large hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter could also occur. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Amplified and split mid-level flow is expected across much of the western and central CONUS D2/Saturday. A broad southern stream trough will deepen over the Southwestern states while strong ridging aloft intensifies farther north. Over the eastern US, a belt of stronger mid-level flow will advance around the southern periphery of an upper low over the Great lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a weak lee low is expected across southeastern CO and western KS with a partially modified warm front/composite outflow stretching east/southeastward. Weak upslope flow is expected north of the boundary across the central high plains, while a trailing dryline will slowly mix eastward into the southern High Plains and west Texas with diurnal heating. ...Southern Plains to the MS Valley and Southeast... A complex convective day is expected as a cluster of elevated storms or a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from southern/southeastern KS into north-central/northeast OK. Likely located along the aforementioned stalled front, these early morning storms may reinforce the boundary as they continue southeastward into the lower MS Valley. Destabilization ahead of, and re-intensification of the cluster appears possible into parts of the MS and TN Valleys Saturday afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear for an organized MCS. This would support a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two from eastern OK, through the Ozarks and into the Southeast. Across southern KS, OK and into the eastern TX Panhandle, uncertainty remains high on the location of the convectively reinforced outflow boundary and its impact on the warm sector. The primary severe corridor is expected to be along and south of the boundary and where it meets the surface low to the west. Rich low-level moisture (70s F surface dewpoints) are expected by early afternoon beneath steep mid-level lase rates of 8-9 C/km. While forcing for ascent is not expected to be overly strong, owing to weak shortwave ridging aloft, robust heating and 500 mb temperatures near -10 C should allow for isolated convection to develop along and south of the composite front/triple point. Moderate deep-layer shear and very large buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) would support risk for supercells with very large hail and damaging gusts. A conditional risk for couple of tornadoes may also develop as backed low-level flow increases along the composite front. Additional low-level hodograph expansion is expected into the evening as the low-level jet (35-40 kt at 850 mb) is forecast to increase across central and eastern OK. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with the potential for wind damage also appears likely into the overnight hours on Saturday and early D3/Sunday. ...West Texas... Shortwave ridging ahead of the primary upper trough to the west will result in neutral to slight mid-level height rises over much of the High Plains and west TX Saturday. This suggests ascent will be subtle with warm mid-level temperatures (H700 14C). The strong capping, in combination with weak ascent, may limit robust convective initiation along the dryline trailing from the surface low. However, weak convergence and very warm surface temperatures (near or exceeding 100F) may allow for isolated storms by late afternoon. Should this occur, 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear could support slow-moving supercells or clusters with a risk for hail, and damaging outflow gusts. ...Central High Plains... A narrow plume of surface moisture will extend westward across eastern CO and the central High Plains with easterly upslope flow. Widespread cloud cover and stratus is expected early, but some clearing is possible as mixing increases through the day. Supported by the upslope flow regime and subtle mid-level ascent from the approaching Southwest US trough, isolated convection is possible along the front Range and High plains by early afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and 25-40 kt of mid-level flow could support storm organization with supercells or clusters. Hail and damaging winds are most probable, though a tornado cannot be ruled out given relatively strong low-level veering and local-terrain influences. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across part of the southern Plains to the Southeast Saturday. Severe wind gusts, large hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter could also occur. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Amplified and split mid-level flow is expected across much of the western and central CONUS D2/Saturday. A broad southern stream trough will deepen over the Southwestern states while strong ridging aloft intensifies farther north. Over the eastern US, a belt of stronger mid-level flow will advance around the southern periphery of an upper low over the Great lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a weak lee low is expected across southeastern CO and western KS with a partially modified warm front/composite outflow stretching east/southeastward. Weak upslope flow is expected north of the boundary across the central high plains, while a trailing dryline will slowly mix eastward into the southern High Plains and west Texas with diurnal heating. ...Southern Plains to the MS Valley and Southeast... A complex convective day is expected as a cluster of elevated storms or a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from southern/southeastern KS into north-central/northeast OK. Likely located along the aforementioned stalled front, these early morning storms may reinforce the boundary as they continue southeastward into the lower MS Valley. Destabilization ahead of, and re-intensification of the cluster appears possible into parts of the MS and TN Valleys Saturday afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear for an organized MCS. This would support a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two from eastern OK, through the Ozarks and into the Southeast. Across southern KS, OK and into the eastern TX Panhandle, uncertainty remains high on the location of the convectively reinforced outflow boundary and its impact on the warm sector. The primary severe corridor is expected to be along and south of the boundary and where it meets the surface low to the west. Rich low-level moisture (70s F surface dewpoints) are expected by early afternoon beneath steep mid-level lase rates of 8-9 C/km. While forcing for ascent is not expected to be overly strong, owing to weak shortwave ridging aloft, robust heating and 500 mb temperatures near -10 C should allow for isolated convection to develop along and south of the composite front/triple point. Moderate deep-layer shear and very large buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) would support risk for supercells with very large hail and damaging gusts. A conditional risk for couple of tornadoes may also develop as backed low-level flow increases along the composite front. Additional low-level hodograph expansion is expected into the evening as the low-level jet (35-40 kt at 850 mb) is forecast to increase across central and eastern OK. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with the potential for wind damage also appears likely into the overnight hours on Saturday and early D3/Sunday. ...West Texas... Shortwave ridging ahead of the primary upper trough to the west will result in neutral to slight mid-level height rises over much of the High Plains and west TX Saturday. This suggests ascent will be subtle with warm mid-level temperatures (H700 14C). The strong capping, in combination with weak ascent, may limit robust convective initiation along the dryline trailing from the surface low. However, weak convergence and very warm surface temperatures (near or exceeding 100F) may allow for isolated storms by late afternoon. Should this occur, 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear could support slow-moving supercells or clusters with a risk for hail, and damaging outflow gusts. ...Central High Plains... A narrow plume of surface moisture will extend westward across eastern CO and the central High Plains with easterly upslope flow. Widespread cloud cover and stratus is expected early, but some clearing is possible as mixing increases through the day. Supported by the upslope flow regime and subtle mid-level ascent from the approaching Southwest US trough, isolated convection is possible along the front Range and High plains by early afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and 25-40 kt of mid-level flow could support storm organization with supercells or clusters. Hail and damaging winds are most probable, though a tornado cannot be ruled out given relatively strong low-level veering and local-terrain influences. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across part of the southern Plains to the Southeast Saturday. Severe wind gusts, large hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter could also occur. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Amplified and split mid-level flow is expected across much of the western and central CONUS D2/Saturday. A broad southern stream trough will deepen over the Southwestern states while strong ridging aloft intensifies farther north. Over the eastern US, a belt of stronger mid-level flow will advance around the southern periphery of an upper low over the Great lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a weak lee low is expected across southeastern CO and western KS with a partially modified warm front/composite outflow stretching east/southeastward. Weak upslope flow is expected north of the boundary across the central high plains, while a trailing dryline will slowly mix eastward into the southern High Plains and west Texas with diurnal heating. ...Southern Plains to the MS Valley and Southeast... A complex convective day is expected as a cluster of elevated storms or a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from southern/southeastern KS into north-central/northeast OK. Likely located along the aforementioned stalled front, these early morning storms may reinforce the boundary as they continue southeastward into the lower MS Valley. Destabilization ahead of, and re-intensification of the cluster appears possible into parts of the MS and TN Valleys Saturday afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear for an organized MCS. This would support a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two from eastern OK, through the Ozarks and into the Southeast. Across southern KS, OK and into the eastern TX Panhandle, uncertainty remains high on the location of the convectively reinforced outflow boundary and its impact on the warm sector. The primary severe corridor is expected to be along and south of the boundary and where it meets the surface low to the west. Rich low-level moisture (70s F surface dewpoints) are expected by early afternoon beneath steep mid-level lase rates of 8-9 C/km. While forcing for ascent is not expected to be overly strong, owing to weak shortwave ridging aloft, robust heating and 500 mb temperatures near -10 C should allow for isolated convection to develop along and south of the composite front/triple point. Moderate deep-layer shear and very large buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) would support risk for supercells with very large hail and damaging gusts. A conditional risk for couple of tornadoes may also develop as backed low-level flow increases along the composite front. Additional low-level hodograph expansion is expected into the evening as the low-level jet (35-40 kt at 850 mb) is forecast to increase across central and eastern OK. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with the potential for wind damage also appears likely into the overnight hours on Saturday and early D3/Sunday. ...West Texas... Shortwave ridging ahead of the primary upper trough to the west will result in neutral to slight mid-level height rises over much of the High Plains and west TX Saturday. This suggests ascent will be subtle with warm mid-level temperatures (H700 14C). The strong capping, in combination with weak ascent, may limit robust convective initiation along the dryline trailing from the surface low. However, weak convergence and very warm surface temperatures (near or exceeding 100F) may allow for isolated storms by late afternoon. Should this occur, 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear could support slow-moving supercells or clusters with a risk for hail, and damaging outflow gusts. ...Central High Plains... A narrow plume of surface moisture will extend westward across eastern CO and the central High Plains with easterly upslope flow. Widespread cloud cover and stratus is expected early, but some clearing is possible as mixing increases through the day. Supported by the upslope flow regime and subtle mid-level ascent from the approaching Southwest US trough, isolated convection is possible along the front Range and High plains by early afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and 25-40 kt of mid-level flow could support storm organization with supercells or clusters. Hail and damaging winds are most probable, though a tornado cannot be ruled out given relatively strong low-level veering and local-terrain influences. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across part of the southern Plains to the Southeast Saturday. Severe wind gusts, large hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter could also occur. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Amplified and split mid-level flow is expected across much of the western and central CONUS D2/Saturday. A broad southern stream trough will deepen over the Southwestern states while strong ridging aloft intensifies farther north. Over the eastern US, a belt of stronger mid-level flow will advance around the southern periphery of an upper low over the Great lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a weak lee low is expected across southeastern CO and western KS with a partially modified warm front/composite outflow stretching east/southeastward. Weak upslope flow is expected north of the boundary across the central high plains, while a trailing dryline will slowly mix eastward into the southern High Plains and west Texas with diurnal heating. ...Southern Plains to the MS Valley and Southeast... A complex convective day is expected as a cluster of elevated storms or a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from southern/southeastern KS into north-central/northeast OK. Likely located along the aforementioned stalled front, these early morning storms may reinforce the boundary as they continue southeastward into the lower MS Valley. Destabilization ahead of, and re-intensification of the cluster appears possible into parts of the MS and TN Valleys Saturday afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear for an organized MCS. This would support a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two from eastern OK, through the Ozarks and into the Southeast. Across southern KS, OK and into the eastern TX Panhandle, uncertainty remains high on the location of the convectively reinforced outflow boundary and its impact on the warm sector. The primary severe corridor is expected to be along and south of the boundary and where it meets the surface low to the west. Rich low-level moisture (70s F surface dewpoints) are expected by early afternoon beneath steep mid-level lase rates of 8-9 C/km. While forcing for ascent is not expected to be overly strong, owing to weak shortwave ridging aloft, robust heating and 500 mb temperatures near -10 C should allow for isolated convection to develop along and south of the composite front/triple point. Moderate deep-layer shear and very large buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) would support risk for supercells with very large hail and damaging gusts. A conditional risk for couple of tornadoes may also develop as backed low-level flow increases along the composite front. Additional low-level hodograph expansion is expected into the evening as the low-level jet (35-40 kt at 850 mb) is forecast to increase across central and eastern OK. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with the potential for wind damage also appears likely into the overnight hours on Saturday and early D3/Sunday. ...West Texas... Shortwave ridging ahead of the primary upper trough to the west will result in neutral to slight mid-level height rises over much of the High Plains and west TX Saturday. This suggests ascent will be subtle with warm mid-level temperatures (H700 14C). The strong capping, in combination with weak ascent, may limit robust convective initiation along the dryline trailing from the surface low. However, weak convergence and very warm surface temperatures (near or exceeding 100F) may allow for isolated storms by late afternoon. Should this occur, 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear could support slow-moving supercells or clusters with a risk for hail, and damaging outflow gusts. ...Central High Plains... A narrow plume of surface moisture will extend westward across eastern CO and the central High Plains with easterly upslope flow. Widespread cloud cover and stratus is expected early, but some clearing is possible as mixing increases through the day. Supported by the upslope flow regime and subtle mid-level ascent from the approaching Southwest US trough, isolated convection is possible along the front Range and High plains by early afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and 25-40 kt of mid-level flow could support storm organization with supercells or clusters. Hail and damaging winds are most probable, though a tornado cannot be ruled out given relatively strong low-level veering and local-terrain influences. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across part of the southern Plains to the Southeast Saturday. Severe wind gusts, large hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter could also occur. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Amplified and split mid-level flow is expected across much of the western and central CONUS D2/Saturday. A broad southern stream trough will deepen over the Southwestern states while strong ridging aloft intensifies farther north. Over the eastern US, a belt of stronger mid-level flow will advance around the southern periphery of an upper low over the Great lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a weak lee low is expected across southeastern CO and western KS with a partially modified warm front/composite outflow stretching east/southeastward. Weak upslope flow is expected north of the boundary across the central high plains, while a trailing dryline will slowly mix eastward into the southern High Plains and west Texas with diurnal heating. ...Southern Plains to the MS Valley and Southeast... A complex convective day is expected as a cluster of elevated storms or a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from southern/southeastern KS into north-central/northeast OK. Likely located along the aforementioned stalled front, these early morning storms may reinforce the boundary as they continue southeastward into the lower MS Valley. Destabilization ahead of, and re-intensification of the cluster appears possible into parts of the MS and TN Valleys Saturday afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear for an organized MCS. This would support a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two from eastern OK, through the Ozarks and into the Southeast. Across southern KS, OK and into the eastern TX Panhandle, uncertainty remains high on the location of the convectively reinforced outflow boundary and its impact on the warm sector. The primary severe corridor is expected to be along and south of the boundary and where it meets the surface low to the west. Rich low-level moisture (70s F surface dewpoints) are expected by early afternoon beneath steep mid-level lase rates of 8-9 C/km. While forcing for ascent is not expected to be overly strong, owing to weak shortwave ridging aloft, robust heating and 500 mb temperatures near -10 C should allow for isolated convection to develop along and south of the composite front/triple point. Moderate deep-layer shear and very large buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) would support risk for supercells with very large hail and damaging gusts. A conditional risk for couple of tornadoes may also develop as backed low-level flow increases along the composite front. Additional low-level hodograph expansion is expected into the evening as the low-level jet (35-40 kt at 850 mb) is forecast to increase across central and eastern OK. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with the potential for wind damage also appears likely into the overnight hours on Saturday and early D3/Sunday. ...West Texas... Shortwave ridging ahead of the primary upper trough to the west will result in neutral to slight mid-level height rises over much of the High Plains and west TX Saturday. This suggests ascent will be subtle with warm mid-level temperatures (H700 14C). The strong capping, in combination with weak ascent, may limit robust convective initiation along the dryline trailing from the surface low. However, weak convergence and very warm surface temperatures (near or exceeding 100F) may allow for isolated storms by late afternoon. Should this occur, 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear could support slow-moving supercells or clusters with a risk for hail, and damaging outflow gusts. ...Central High Plains... A narrow plume of surface moisture will extend westward across eastern CO and the central High Plains with easterly upslope flow. Widespread cloud cover and stratus is expected early, but some clearing is possible as mixing increases through the day. Supported by the upslope flow regime and subtle mid-level ascent from the approaching Southwest US trough, isolated convection is possible along the front Range and High plains by early afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and 25-40 kt of mid-level flow could support storm organization with supercells or clusters. Hail and damaging winds are most probable, though a tornado cannot be ruled out given relatively strong low-level veering and local-terrain influences. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across part of the southern Plains to the Southeast Saturday. Severe wind gusts, large hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter could also occur. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Amplified and split mid-level flow is expected across much of the western and central CONUS D2/Saturday. A broad southern stream trough will deepen over the Southwestern states while strong ridging aloft intensifies farther north. Over the eastern US, a belt of stronger mid-level flow will advance around the southern periphery of an upper low over the Great lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a weak lee low is expected across southeastern CO and western KS with a partially modified warm front/composite outflow stretching east/southeastward. Weak upslope flow is expected north of the boundary across the central high plains, while a trailing dryline will slowly mix eastward into the southern High Plains and west Texas with diurnal heating. ...Southern Plains to the MS Valley and Southeast... A complex convective day is expected as a cluster of elevated storms or a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from southern/southeastern KS into north-central/northeast OK. Likely located along the aforementioned stalled front, these early morning storms may reinforce the boundary as they continue southeastward into the lower MS Valley. Destabilization ahead of, and re-intensification of the cluster appears possible into parts of the MS and TN Valleys Saturday afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear for an organized MCS. This would support a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two from eastern OK, through the Ozarks and into the Southeast. Across southern KS, OK and into the eastern TX Panhandle, uncertainty remains high on the location of the convectively reinforced outflow boundary and its impact on the warm sector. The primary severe corridor is expected to be along and south of the boundary and where it meets the surface low to the west. Rich low-level moisture (70s F surface dewpoints) are expected by early afternoon beneath steep mid-level lase rates of 8-9 C/km. While forcing for ascent is not expected to be overly strong, owing to weak shortwave ridging aloft, robust heating and 500 mb temperatures near -10 C should allow for isolated convection to develop along and south of the composite front/triple point. Moderate deep-layer shear and very large buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) would support risk for supercells with very large hail and damaging gusts. A conditional risk for couple of tornadoes may also develop as backed low-level flow increases along the composite front. Additional low-level hodograph expansion is expected into the evening as the low-level jet (35-40 kt at 850 mb) is forecast to increase across central and eastern OK. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with the potential for wind damage also appears likely into the overnight hours on Saturday and early D3/Sunday. ...West Texas... Shortwave ridging ahead of the primary upper trough to the west will result in neutral to slight mid-level height rises over much of the High Plains and west TX Saturday. This suggests ascent will be subtle with warm mid-level temperatures (H700 14C). The strong capping, in combination with weak ascent, may limit robust convective initiation along the dryline trailing from the surface low. However, weak convergence and very warm surface temperatures (near or exceeding 100F) may allow for isolated storms by late afternoon. Should this occur, 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear could support slow-moving supercells or clusters with a risk for hail, and damaging outflow gusts. ...Central High Plains... A narrow plume of surface moisture will extend westward across eastern CO and the central High Plains with easterly upslope flow. Widespread cloud cover and stratus is expected early, but some clearing is possible as mixing increases through the day. Supported by the upslope flow regime and subtle mid-level ascent from the approaching Southwest US trough, isolated convection is possible along the front Range and High plains by early afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and 25-40 kt of mid-level flow could support storm organization with supercells or clusters. Hail and damaging winds are most probable, though a tornado cannot be ruled out given relatively strong low-level veering and local-terrain influences. ..Lyons.. 05/23/2025 Read more