Aggregator

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 11:37:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 09:22:37 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 211 WTPZ35 KNHC 191137 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 600 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...MAJOR HURRICANE ERICK MAKES LANDFALL IN EXTREME WESTERN OAXACA MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 98.3W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located along the coast of Mexico near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 98.3 West, just east of Punta Maldonado. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to move inland over southern Mexico throughout the day. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Erick is expected to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to dissipate tonight or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area during the next few hours, with destructive winds near the core of Erick. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in the tropical storm warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico throughout the day. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...MAJOR HURRICANE ERICK MAKES LANDFALL IN EXTREME WESTERN OAXACA MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 16.3, -98.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

166
ABPZ20 KNHC 191132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin near the coast of
southern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin near the coast of
southern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin near the coast of
southern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low..20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 08:54:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 09:22:37 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 08:54:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 09:22:37 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190852 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 Erick is about to make landfall along the southern coast of Mexico. Its rapid strengthening episode has ended, likely due to the interaction with land. The eye has become obscured on satellite imagery, and the intensity is adjusted to 120 kt in agreement with the latest objective estimates from UW/CIMSS. Erick remains an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane. However, rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland and the system moves over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Smoothing out the trochoidal wobbles in the track, the motion estimate, 310/8 kt, remains about the same as before. This general motion, on the south side of a weak mid-level ridge, is likely to continue until the system dissipates within the next day or two. The official track forecast is just slightly west of the previous one and close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and devastating wind damage is likely near its core. Take shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure and remain sheltered until after hazardous conditions pass. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 15.9N 97.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 17.5N 99.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 302 FOPZ15 KNHC 190851 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 67 12(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) ACAPULCO 50 5 13(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ACAPULCO 64 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P MALDONADO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P MALDONADO 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) P MALDONADO 64 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) P ANGEL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 239 WTPZ35 KNHC 190851 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...BRINGING EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS NEAR ITS CORE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 97.9W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 97.9 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to make landfall in the western portion of the Mexican state of Oaxaca or the eastern portion of the Mexican state of Guerrero within the next few hours, and then continue inland over southern Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. After landfall, Erick should rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to dissipate tonight or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning during the next few hours, with extremely destructive winds near the core of Erick. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today. Tropical Storm conditions are currently spreading onshore in the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in the tropical storm warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...ERICK VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...BRINGING EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS NEAR ITS CORE... As of 3:00 AM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 15.9, -97.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 536 WTPZ25 KNHC 190850 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 97.9W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 15NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 97.9W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 97.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 99.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 97.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday... The upper-level trough over the West is forecast to take on more of a positive tilt on Sunday, as an embedded shortwave and attendant midlevel jet maximum move across the northern Rockies/High Plains. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to move from SD toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through the northern/central Plains. Guidance varies regarding frontal timing, though generally agrees that stronger mid/upper-level flow will tend to lag behind the front. While details remain uncertain, strong to potentially severe storms may develop near/north of the surface low across parts of the Dakotas/MN, and also along the trailing cold front into the central Plains. ...D5/Monday - D8/Thursday... The upper ridge across the Southeast is expected to remain in place through at least early next week, with some guidance suggesting potential for deamplification by the middle of the week. Multiple shortwaves may emerge from the persistent (though weakening) western trough through at least Wednesday, resulting in some potential for strong to severe storms along the periphery of the upper ridge from the Plains into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and possibly parts of the Northeast. However, predictability remains quite low regarding the details of any organized severe threats during this time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday... The upper-level trough over the West is forecast to take on more of a positive tilt on Sunday, as an embedded shortwave and attendant midlevel jet maximum move across the northern Rockies/High Plains. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to move from SD toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through the northern/central Plains. Guidance varies regarding frontal timing, though generally agrees that stronger mid/upper-level flow will tend to lag behind the front. While details remain uncertain, strong to potentially severe storms may develop near/north of the surface low across parts of the Dakotas/MN, and also along the trailing cold front into the central Plains. ...D5/Monday - D8/Thursday... The upper ridge across the Southeast is expected to remain in place through at least early next week, with some guidance suggesting potential for deamplification by the middle of the week. Multiple shortwaves may emerge from the persistent (though weakening) western trough through at least Wednesday, resulting in some potential for strong to severe storms along the periphery of the upper ridge from the Plains into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and possibly parts of the Northeast. However, predictability remains quite low regarding the details of any organized severe threats during this time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday... The upper-level trough over the West is forecast to take on more of a positive tilt on Sunday, as an embedded shortwave and attendant midlevel jet maximum move across the northern Rockies/High Plains. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to move from SD toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through the northern/central Plains. Guidance varies regarding frontal timing, though generally agrees that stronger mid/upper-level flow will tend to lag behind the front. While details remain uncertain, strong to potentially severe storms may develop near/north of the surface low across parts of the Dakotas/MN, and also along the trailing cold front into the central Plains. ...D5/Monday - D8/Thursday... The upper ridge across the Southeast is expected to remain in place through at least early next week, with some guidance suggesting potential for deamplification by the middle of the week. Multiple shortwaves may emerge from the persistent (though weakening) western trough through at least Wednesday, resulting in some potential for strong to severe storms along the periphery of the upper ridge from the Plains into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and possibly parts of the Northeast. However, predictability remains quite low regarding the details of any organized severe threats during this time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday... The upper-level trough over the West is forecast to take on more of a positive tilt on Sunday, as an embedded shortwave and attendant midlevel jet maximum move across the northern Rockies/High Plains. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to move from SD toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through the northern/central Plains. Guidance varies regarding frontal timing, though generally agrees that stronger mid/upper-level flow will tend to lag behind the front. While details remain uncertain, strong to potentially severe storms may develop near/north of the surface low across parts of the Dakotas/MN, and also along the trailing cold front into the central Plains. ...D5/Monday - D8/Thursday... The upper ridge across the Southeast is expected to remain in place through at least early next week, with some guidance suggesting potential for deamplification by the middle of the week. Multiple shortwaves may emerge from the persistent (though weakening) western trough through at least Wednesday, resulting in some potential for strong to severe storms along the periphery of the upper ridge from the Plains into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and possibly parts of the Northeast. However, predictability remains quite low regarding the details of any organized severe threats during this time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday... The upper-level trough over the West is forecast to take on more of a positive tilt on Sunday, as an embedded shortwave and attendant midlevel jet maximum move across the northern Rockies/High Plains. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to move from SD toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through the northern/central Plains. Guidance varies regarding frontal timing, though generally agrees that stronger mid/upper-level flow will tend to lag behind the front. While details remain uncertain, strong to potentially severe storms may develop near/north of the surface low across parts of the Dakotas/MN, and also along the trailing cold front into the central Plains. ...D5/Monday - D8/Thursday... The upper ridge across the Southeast is expected to remain in place through at least early next week, with some guidance suggesting potential for deamplification by the middle of the week. Multiple shortwaves may emerge from the persistent (though weakening) western trough through at least Wednesday, resulting in some potential for strong to severe storms along the periphery of the upper ridge from the Plains into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and possibly parts of the Northeast. However, predictability remains quite low regarding the details of any organized severe threats during this time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday... The upper-level trough over the West is forecast to take on more of a positive tilt on Sunday, as an embedded shortwave and attendant midlevel jet maximum move across the northern Rockies/High Plains. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to move from SD toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through the northern/central Plains. Guidance varies regarding frontal timing, though generally agrees that stronger mid/upper-level flow will tend to lag behind the front. While details remain uncertain, strong to potentially severe storms may develop near/north of the surface low across parts of the Dakotas/MN, and also along the trailing cold front into the central Plains. ...D5/Monday - D8/Thursday... The upper ridge across the Southeast is expected to remain in place through at least early next week, with some guidance suggesting potential for deamplification by the middle of the week. Multiple shortwaves may emerge from the persistent (though weakening) western trough through at least Wednesday, resulting in some potential for strong to severe storms along the periphery of the upper ridge from the Plains into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and possibly parts of the Northeast. However, predictability remains quite low regarding the details of any organized severe threats during this time frame. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern on Saturday will not change appreciably, with a seasonably deep upper trough over the West, and an amplified upper ridge over the Southeast and Ohio Valley. A lee trough and surface low will remain in place over the central/northern High Plains, with an expansive area of rich low-level moisture east of the low/trough across the Plains and upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Confidence is quite low regarding the details of severe-storm potential on Saturday, though conditional potential remains evident along the periphery of the upper ridge. An MCS that may develop late on D2/Friday may be moving across parts of the northern Great Lakes at the start of the period (and possibly posing a severe-wind threat), though it is possible that the bulk of this MCS will be in Ontario through the day. This MCS (or its remnant MCV) may move southeastward toward the lower Great Lakes and NY/PA by evening, and could pose some severe threat if it does not become displaced from the buoyancy reservoir to its southwest. Some redevelopment cannot be ruled out in the wake of the potential morning MCS into the upper Great Lakes/Midwest. Buoyancy and shear will remain favorable for organized severe storms, but confidence is low regarding coverage and location at this time. ...Northern Plains... Strong storms that develop on D2/Friday be ongoing Saturday morning across eastern MT, and could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. Guidance varies regarding instability/moisture across eastern MT later in the day, but if some diurnal destabilization can occur, then ascent related to the western trough may aid in additional strong storm development. Stronger instability will reside across the Dakotas, and the greatest relative threat for a couple supercells and/or an organized storm cluster currently appears to be across parts of ND during the afternoon and evening. However, confidence is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 06/19/2025 Read more