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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... Only minor changes to previous forecast were needed. A broad upper-level trough and associated stronger southwest flow pattern will bring widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions to much of the Great Basin today. Dry fuels, low humidity and expansive area of 20-25 mph from the southwest will contribute to wildfire spread potential. Latest model guidance suggests fast moving showers and isolated thunderstorms with minimal rainfall across southeastern Oregon late today into this evening but cooler temperatures following a cold front passage, cloud cover and isolated showers Friday preclude introduction of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights. ..Williams.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough moving into the western CONUS, a swath of moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread central CA into the Great Basin today. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin and separately over the Lower CO River Valley. ...Great Basin... Deep boundary-layer mixing is expected across the Great Basin during the afternoon, with surface temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100 F and RH falling into the single digits. The deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening regional pressure gradient, will contribute to an expansive area of 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). The greatest overlap of these strong surface winds and low RH is expected over northwestern NV and western UT into eastern NV and far northwestern AZ. Given dry/receptive fuels over these areas, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...San Joaquin Valley and vicinity... Hot and dry conditions will combine with 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds during the afternoon into the evening. This will promote elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to fire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Large-scale forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will favor isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of southeastern OR into central ID during the evening hours. However, current indications are that fuels are only modestly receptive to lightning-induced ignitions -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... Only minor changes to previous forecast were needed. A broad upper-level trough and associated stronger southwest flow pattern will bring widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions to much of the Great Basin today. Dry fuels, low humidity and expansive area of 20-25 mph from the southwest will contribute to wildfire spread potential. Latest model guidance suggests fast moving showers and isolated thunderstorms with minimal rainfall across southeastern Oregon late today into this evening but cooler temperatures following a cold front passage, cloud cover and isolated showers Friday preclude introduction of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights. ..Williams.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough moving into the western CONUS, a swath of moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread central CA into the Great Basin today. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin and separately over the Lower CO River Valley. ...Great Basin... Deep boundary-layer mixing is expected across the Great Basin during the afternoon, with surface temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100 F and RH falling into the single digits. The deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening regional pressure gradient, will contribute to an expansive area of 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). The greatest overlap of these strong surface winds and low RH is expected over northwestern NV and western UT into eastern NV and far northwestern AZ. Given dry/receptive fuels over these areas, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...San Joaquin Valley and vicinity... Hot and dry conditions will combine with 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds during the afternoon into the evening. This will promote elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to fire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Large-scale forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will favor isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of southeastern OR into central ID during the evening hours. However, current indications are that fuels are only modestly receptive to lightning-induced ignitions -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... Only minor changes to previous forecast were needed. A broad upper-level trough and associated stronger southwest flow pattern will bring widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions to much of the Great Basin today. Dry fuels, low humidity and expansive area of 20-25 mph from the southwest will contribute to wildfire spread potential. Latest model guidance suggests fast moving showers and isolated thunderstorms with minimal rainfall across southeastern Oregon late today into this evening but cooler temperatures following a cold front passage, cloud cover and isolated showers Friday preclude introduction of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights. ..Williams.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough moving into the western CONUS, a swath of moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread central CA into the Great Basin today. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin and separately over the Lower CO River Valley. ...Great Basin... Deep boundary-layer mixing is expected across the Great Basin during the afternoon, with surface temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100 F and RH falling into the single digits. The deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening regional pressure gradient, will contribute to an expansive area of 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). The greatest overlap of these strong surface winds and low RH is expected over northwestern NV and western UT into eastern NV and far northwestern AZ. Given dry/receptive fuels over these areas, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...San Joaquin Valley and vicinity... Hot and dry conditions will combine with 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds during the afternoon into the evening. This will promote elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to fire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Large-scale forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will favor isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of southeastern OR into central ID during the evening hours. However, current indications are that fuels are only modestly receptive to lightning-induced ignitions -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... Only minor changes to previous forecast were needed. A broad upper-level trough and associated stronger southwest flow pattern will bring widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions to much of the Great Basin today. Dry fuels, low humidity and expansive area of 20-25 mph from the southwest will contribute to wildfire spread potential. Latest model guidance suggests fast moving showers and isolated thunderstorms with minimal rainfall across southeastern Oregon late today into this evening but cooler temperatures following a cold front passage, cloud cover and isolated showers Friday preclude introduction of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights. ..Williams.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough moving into the western CONUS, a swath of moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread central CA into the Great Basin today. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin and separately over the Lower CO River Valley. ...Great Basin... Deep boundary-layer mixing is expected across the Great Basin during the afternoon, with surface temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100 F and RH falling into the single digits. The deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening regional pressure gradient, will contribute to an expansive area of 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). The greatest overlap of these strong surface winds and low RH is expected over northwestern NV and western UT into eastern NV and far northwestern AZ. Given dry/receptive fuels over these areas, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...San Joaquin Valley and vicinity... Hot and dry conditions will combine with 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds during the afternoon into the evening. This will promote elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to fire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Large-scale forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will favor isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of southeastern OR into central ID during the evening hours. However, current indications are that fuels are only modestly receptive to lightning-induced ignitions -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

West Palm Beach began using its emergency wells on April 17 to supplement its water supply for the roughly 130,000 residents of West Palm, Palm Beach and South Palm Beach. There was concern over whether the regional system, which includes Lake Okeechobee, holds enough water to augment the water supply until the rainy season is in full swing. The Palm Beach Post (Fla.), June 19, 2025

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more