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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin inland over southern
Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0441 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 19 17:24:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... Only minor changes to previous forecast were needed. A broad upper-level trough and associated stronger southwest flow pattern will bring widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions to much of the Great Basin today. Dry fuels, low humidity and expansive area of 20-25 mph from the southwest will contribute to wildfire spread potential. Latest model guidance suggests fast moving showers and isolated thunderstorms with minimal rainfall across southeastern Oregon late today into this evening but cooler temperatures following a cold front passage, cloud cover and isolated showers Friday preclude introduction of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights. ..Williams.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough moving into the western CONUS, a swath of moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread central CA into the Great Basin today. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin and separately over the Lower CO River Valley. ...Great Basin... Deep boundary-layer mixing is expected across the Great Basin during the afternoon, with surface temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100 F and RH falling into the single digits. The deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening regional pressure gradient, will contribute to an expansive area of 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). The greatest overlap of these strong surface winds and low RH is expected over northwestern NV and western UT into eastern NV and far northwestern AZ. Given dry/receptive fuels over these areas, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...San Joaquin Valley and vicinity... Hot and dry conditions will combine with 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds during the afternoon into the evening. This will promote elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to fire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Large-scale forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will favor isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of southeastern OR into central ID during the evening hours. However, current indications are that fuels are only modestly receptive to lightning-induced ignitions -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more