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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0443 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1366 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1366 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...central Arkansas into western Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191747Z - 191915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon across central/southern Arkansas into western Mississippi DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along a trailing outflow boundary across central Arkansas and into western Mississippi early this afternoon. Shear is relatively weak (25 knots per LZK VWP) and will be weakening through the day. However, instability is very strong across the region (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) which will support some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts. A watch is unlikely due to the unorganized and expected isolated nature of the threat this afternoon and perhaps into the early evening hours. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 34989428 34729222 33979049 33139012 33139116 33669326 33959393 34199434 34429444 34989428 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1364 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MID-ATLANTIC REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1364 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic Region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191722Z - 191915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Convection will gradually intensify as they move off the Blue Ridge this afternoon. Damaging winds are the primary hazard, though isolated large hail and a brief tornado or two are also possible. A watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows convection gradually deepening along the Blue Ridge in advance of an upper-level trough. Given the upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints and clear skies ahead of this activity, the boundary-layer will continue to destabilize through the afternoon. 30-35 kts of effective shear will likely mean broken line segments as well as a few supercells. The primary hazard this afternoon will be damaging winds, particularly with any line segments that develop. Isolated large hail is possible, but weak winds at upper levels and poor mid-level lapse rates (sample by morning soundings across the region) should limit that threat. Modest enhancement to the 850 mb winds will promote sufficient low-level shear for the threat of a brief tornado or two. ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 37618051 38657993 40287794 40817698 40697497 40177473 37627670 36947781 36707996 37018057 37618051 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more