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MD 1369 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1369 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...South-central Virginia into central/eastern Maryland and southeast Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442... Valid 191922Z - 192115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe winds are the primary threat this afternoon, particularly with linear segments. The environment in the DC/Baltimore/Philadelphia remains favorable. DISCUSSION...Strong to isolated severe wind gusts have occurred with storms just east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon. Given the linear structures that have evolved in northern Virginia and central Maryland, areas ahead of this activity will have a greater risk for strong/damaging winds. Temperatures in Virginia and Maryland have risen into the low 90s F with upper 80s F into southeast Pennsylvania. Steep low-level lapse rates and 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will support a continued threat for strong to severe wind gusts as storms move towards the DC/Baltimore/Philadelphia corridor. ..Wendt.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 36827957 38467870 40187709 40417564 40277485 39967494 39577525 37937647 37037771 36827957 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 441 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW TTN TO 30 NE MSV TO 10 SSE UCA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370 ..WENDT..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-013-015-192140- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC003-011-013-015-027-192140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE WORCESTER NJC003-013-017-031-039-192140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 441 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW TTN TO 30 NE MSV TO 10 SSE UCA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370 ..WENDT..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-013-015-192140- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC003-011-013-015-027-192140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE WORCESTER NJC003-013-017-031-039-192140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370 ..WENDT..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-003-005-007-011-017-021-023-025-031-192140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN AROOSTOOK CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN KENNEBEC OXFORD PISCATAQUIS SAGADAHOC SOMERSET YORK NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-192140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370 ..WENDT..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-003-005-007-011-017-021-023-025-031-192140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN AROOSTOOK CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN KENNEBEC OXFORD PISCATAQUIS SAGADAHOC SOMERSET YORK NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-192140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370 ..WENDT..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-003-005-007-011-017-021-023-025-031-192140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN AROOSTOOK CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN KENNEBEC OXFORD PISCATAQUIS SAGADAHOC SOMERSET YORK NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-192140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 20:36:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 20:36:22 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 20:36:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 20:36:22 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 429 FOPZ15 KNHC 192032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ACAPULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P MALDONADO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 464 WTPZ45 KNHC 192032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 Erick continues to rapidly weaken as it moves farther inland over the rugged terrain of Mexico. The inner core has now nearly completely collapsed, and the overall convective pattern has become quite ragged. Based on the degraded appearance and decreasing satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt, making Erick a tropical storm. Continued rapid weakening is forecast as Erick continues northwestward. The storm is expected to dissipate over the mountains in southwestern Mexico tonight. Even though Erick is no longer a hurricane, heavy rains will linger over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick will continue to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico mainly through tonight. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.4N 99.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 600 WTPZ25 KNHC 192032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 99.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 99.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 99.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 99.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 601 WTPZ35 KNHC 192032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 99.7W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings east of Punta Maldonado and downgraded the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from Acapulco to Punta Maldonado. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 99.7 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico until it dissipates tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely dissipate tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches of rainfall mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the states of Michoacan and Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur for a few more hours in the warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...ERICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 17.4, -99.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

MD 1367 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR UPPER OHIO VALLEY VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1367 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191817Z - 192015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to near-severe gusts may produce wind damage this afternoon. Weak thermodynamics should limit a more widespread/organized threat this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Stronger forcing from the upper trough as well as the surface cold front has promoted thunderstorm development in the upper Ohio Valley region. Recent surface observations show a 46 kt gust in Parkersburg, WV along with a few wind damage reports. Given the enhanced low-level winds near the surface low, additional strong to near-severe winds are possible through the afternoon. The greatest threat will be with linear segments moving east through West Virginia. Marginal low-level and mid-level lapse rates should keep the threat less organized and more sporadic in nature. ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... LAT...LON 37848376 39758164 39868165 40758093 41048037 40617905 40077906 39387962 38128102 37588199 37428371 37848376 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST... ...Great Basin into the Southwest... A prominent low pressure system and associated 60-70 mph mid-level jet entering the northwestern U.S. will promote an expansive area of critical fire weather conditions across much of the Great Basin, northern Arizona and Four Corners area on Friday. The pronounced juxtaposition of a mid-level jet maxima, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 10 percent or below is expected across eastern Utah and western Colorado. The combination of sustained winds of 25-30 mph and very dry surface layer could yield locally extremely critical fire weather conditions across western portions of the Colorado Plateau Friday. ...Southern California into the San Joaquin Valley... Enhanced west-northwest flow and within a dry boundary layer will support an elevated fire weather threat mainly leeward of interior mountain ranges across Southern California Friday. Previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel low will advance eastward across the Northwest during the day, while a swath of strong deep-layer westerly flow overspreads much of the western CONUS. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin, promoting a tightening pressure gradient across the Great Basin into the Southwest. This large-scale pattern will support widespread critical fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin into the Southwest. ...Great Basin into the Southwest... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will support another day of widespread single-digit RH across the region. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, combined with the tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry fuels across much of the Great Basin into the Southwest, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected, with localized extremely critical conditions possible over terrain-favored areas. ...Southern CA into the San Joaquin Valley... Deep-layer west-northwesterly flow on the upstream-side of the midlevel low will overspread central and southern CA, where the tight regional pressure gradient will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty surface winds primarily over the interior mountains and valley -- where 15-20 percent RH is expected. These dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST... ...Great Basin into the Southwest... A prominent low pressure system and associated 60-70 mph mid-level jet entering the northwestern U.S. will promote an expansive area of critical fire weather conditions across much of the Great Basin, northern Arizona and Four Corners area on Friday. The pronounced juxtaposition of a mid-level jet maxima, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 10 percent or below is expected across eastern Utah and western Colorado. The combination of sustained winds of 25-30 mph and very dry surface layer could yield locally extremely critical fire weather conditions across western portions of the Colorado Plateau Friday. ...Southern California into the San Joaquin Valley... Enhanced west-northwest flow and within a dry boundary layer will support an elevated fire weather threat mainly leeward of interior mountain ranges across Southern California Friday. Previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel low will advance eastward across the Northwest during the day, while a swath of strong deep-layer westerly flow overspreads much of the western CONUS. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin, promoting a tightening pressure gradient across the Great Basin into the Southwest. This large-scale pattern will support widespread critical fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin into the Southwest. ...Great Basin into the Southwest... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will support another day of widespread single-digit RH across the region. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, combined with the tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry fuels across much of the Great Basin into the Southwest, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected, with localized extremely critical conditions possible over terrain-favored areas. ...Southern CA into the San Joaquin Valley... Deep-layer west-northwesterly flow on the upstream-side of the midlevel low will overspread central and southern CA, where the tight regional pressure gradient will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty surface winds primarily over the interior mountains and valley -- where 15-20 percent RH is expected. These dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST... ...Great Basin into the Southwest... A prominent low pressure system and associated 60-70 mph mid-level jet entering the northwestern U.S. will promote an expansive area of critical fire weather conditions across much of the Great Basin, northern Arizona and Four Corners area on Friday. The pronounced juxtaposition of a mid-level jet maxima, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 10 percent or below is expected across eastern Utah and western Colorado. The combination of sustained winds of 25-30 mph and very dry surface layer could yield locally extremely critical fire weather conditions across western portions of the Colorado Plateau Friday. ...Southern California into the San Joaquin Valley... Enhanced west-northwest flow and within a dry boundary layer will support an elevated fire weather threat mainly leeward of interior mountain ranges across Southern California Friday. Previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel low will advance eastward across the Northwest during the day, while a swath of strong deep-layer westerly flow overspreads much of the western CONUS. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin, promoting a tightening pressure gradient across the Great Basin into the Southwest. This large-scale pattern will support widespread critical fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin into the Southwest. ...Great Basin into the Southwest... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will support another day of widespread single-digit RH across the region. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, combined with the tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry fuels across much of the Great Basin into the Southwest, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected, with localized extremely critical conditions possible over terrain-favored areas. ...Southern CA into the San Joaquin Valley... Deep-layer west-northwesterly flow on the upstream-side of the midlevel low will overspread central and southern CA, where the tight regional pressure gradient will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty surface winds primarily over the interior mountains and valley -- where 15-20 percent RH is expected. These dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST... ...Great Basin into the Southwest... A prominent low pressure system and associated 60-70 mph mid-level jet entering the northwestern U.S. will promote an expansive area of critical fire weather conditions across much of the Great Basin, northern Arizona and Four Corners area on Friday. The pronounced juxtaposition of a mid-level jet maxima, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 10 percent or below is expected across eastern Utah and western Colorado. The combination of sustained winds of 25-30 mph and very dry surface layer could yield locally extremely critical fire weather conditions across western portions of the Colorado Plateau Friday. ...Southern California into the San Joaquin Valley... Enhanced west-northwest flow and within a dry boundary layer will support an elevated fire weather threat mainly leeward of interior mountain ranges across Southern California Friday. Previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel low will advance eastward across the Northwest during the day, while a swath of strong deep-layer westerly flow overspreads much of the western CONUS. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin, promoting a tightening pressure gradient across the Great Basin into the Southwest. This large-scale pattern will support widespread critical fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin into the Southwest. ...Great Basin into the Southwest... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will support another day of widespread single-digit RH across the region. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, combined with the tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry fuels across much of the Great Basin into the Southwest, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected, with localized extremely critical conditions possible over terrain-favored areas. ...Southern CA into the San Joaquin Valley... Deep-layer west-northwesterly flow on the upstream-side of the midlevel low will overspread central and southern CA, where the tight regional pressure gradient will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty surface winds primarily over the interior mountains and valley -- where 15-20 percent RH is expected. These dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST... ...Great Basin into the Southwest... A prominent low pressure system and associated 60-70 mph mid-level jet entering the northwestern U.S. will promote an expansive area of critical fire weather conditions across much of the Great Basin, northern Arizona and Four Corners area on Friday. The pronounced juxtaposition of a mid-level jet maxima, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 10 percent or below is expected across eastern Utah and western Colorado. The combination of sustained winds of 25-30 mph and very dry surface layer could yield locally extremely critical fire weather conditions across western portions of the Colorado Plateau Friday. ...Southern California into the San Joaquin Valley... Enhanced west-northwest flow and within a dry boundary layer will support an elevated fire weather threat mainly leeward of interior mountain ranges across Southern California Friday. Previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel low will advance eastward across the Northwest during the day, while a swath of strong deep-layer westerly flow overspreads much of the western CONUS. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin, promoting a tightening pressure gradient across the Great Basin into the Southwest. This large-scale pattern will support widespread critical fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin into the Southwest. ...Great Basin into the Southwest... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will support another day of widespread single-digit RH across the region. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, combined with the tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry fuels across much of the Great Basin into the Southwest, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected, with localized extremely critical conditions possible over terrain-favored areas. ...Southern CA into the San Joaquin Valley... Deep-layer west-northwesterly flow on the upstream-side of the midlevel low will overspread central and southern CA, where the tight regional pressure gradient will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty surface winds primarily over the interior mountains and valley -- where 15-20 percent RH is expected. These dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST... ...Great Basin into the Southwest... A prominent low pressure system and associated 60-70 mph mid-level jet entering the northwestern U.S. will promote an expansive area of critical fire weather conditions across much of the Great Basin, northern Arizona and Four Corners area on Friday. The pronounced juxtaposition of a mid-level jet maxima, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 10 percent or below is expected across eastern Utah and western Colorado. The combination of sustained winds of 25-30 mph and very dry surface layer could yield locally extremely critical fire weather conditions across western portions of the Colorado Plateau Friday. ...Southern California into the San Joaquin Valley... Enhanced west-northwest flow and within a dry boundary layer will support an elevated fire weather threat mainly leeward of interior mountain ranges across Southern California Friday. Previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel low will advance eastward across the Northwest during the day, while a swath of strong deep-layer westerly flow overspreads much of the western CONUS. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin, promoting a tightening pressure gradient across the Great Basin into the Southwest. This large-scale pattern will support widespread critical fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin into the Southwest. ...Great Basin into the Southwest... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will support another day of widespread single-digit RH across the region. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, combined with the tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry fuels across much of the Great Basin into the Southwest, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected, with localized extremely critical conditions possible over terrain-favored areas. ...Southern CA into the San Joaquin Valley... Deep-layer west-northwesterly flow on the upstream-side of the midlevel low will overspread central and southern CA, where the tight regional pressure gradient will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty surface winds primarily over the interior mountains and valley -- where 15-20 percent RH is expected. These dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more