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WW 0442 Status Updates
040- STATUS REPORT ON WW 442 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE RDU TO 15 N DOV TO 15 S ISP. ..MOORE..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RNK...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-200040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-019-037-039-041-045-047-200040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE DORCHESTER ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC001-009-200040- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC CAPE MAY Read more

WW 442 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NC NJ PA VA WV CW 191745Z - 200100Z
CWZ000-200100- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 442 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland Northern North Carolina New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Central and Eastern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will move off the mountains of western Virginia and southern Pennsylvania, spreading eastward across the watch through the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail are possible in the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Allentown PA to 20 miles east of Danville VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 441... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 441 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW AVP TO 25 SSW POU TO 25 E BDR. ..MOORE..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-200040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD NJC003-013-017-031-039-200040- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON PASSAIC UNION NYC005-047-059-061-081-085-087-119-200040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRONX KINGS NASSAU NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND WESTCHESTER Read more

WW 441 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NJ NY PA VT CW 191725Z - 200100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 441 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Western and Central Massachusetts Northern New Jersey Eastern New York Northeast Pennsylvania Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon in a very moist and unstable air mass. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Newport VT to 60 miles southeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1374 ..MOORE..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-003-005-007-011-017-021-023-025-031-200040- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN AROOSTOOK CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN KENNEBEC OXFORD PISCATAQUIS SAGADAHOC SOMERSET YORK NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-200040- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 443 SEVERE TSTM ME NH 191920Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 443 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Northern Maine New Hampshire * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread eastward across the watch area through the afternoon and evening, with the strongest cells capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Caribou ME to 30 miles east southeast of Keene NH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 441...WW 442... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 23:38:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 21:21:40 GMT

116
ABPZ20 KNHC 192337
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin inland over
southern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 600 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 192335 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 600 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 100.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erick was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 100.2 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico until it dissipates tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely dissipate tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the states of Michoacan and Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next several hours in squalls and in mountainous regions near the center of Erick. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...ERICK RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... As of 6:00 PM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 17.7, -100.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 600 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Depression Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 600 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 100.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erick was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 100.2 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico until it dissipates tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely dissipate tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the states of Michoacan and Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next several hours in squalls and in mountainous regions near the center of Erick. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0445 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 445 SEVERE TSTM ND 192330Z - 200600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 445 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Much of North Dakota * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 630 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast this evening into the early overnight period. Ample deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will support discrete supercells posing a risk for large to very large hail and isolated severe gusts. A small cluster of storms may eventually evolve over the eastern half of the Watch later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles northeast of Minot ND to 55 miles south southwest of Bismarck ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 441...WW 442...WW 443...WW 444... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1372 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442... FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1372 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442... Valid 192125Z - 192330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442 continues. SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms with a history of producing severe wind gusts will continue to push east across Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey through 23 UTC, and will likely continue producing severe gusts/damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Regional reflectivity and velocity imagery shows a broken convective band with multiple embedded bowing structures moving across the Mid-Atlantic. Surface observations over the past hour have reported wind gusts between 55-66 mph, and multiple reports of wind damage have also been noted. This convective band is moving into the apex of a buoyancy ridge where MLCAPE is approaching 1500 J/kg (denoted in surface observations by temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, which may promote further intensification of segments within the line. Regional VWPs downstream of the line continue to sample strong (20-30 knot) line-orthogonal low-level wind shear, which will also help maintain convective organization as the band continues east. Wind gusts between 60-70 mph appear probable along with the potential for swaths of wind damage. Latest storm track estimates suggest this band will reach the coast between the 23-00 UTC time frame, so the threat should persist for at least two more hours. ..Moore.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 38647682 39107648 39537614 39917584 40237559 40547420 40397395 40087394 39767407 39457427 39197456 38757493 38487497 38347522 38347561 38367600 38497648 38557671 38587684 38647682 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1370 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441...443... FOR NEW YORK CITY INTO NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1370 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...New York City into New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441...443... Valid 192034Z - 192230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441, 443 continues. SUMMARY...As temperatures have warmed in New England, storms have shown some intensification recently. Wind damage remains possible late this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Strong to severe storms continue from the New York City vicinity into New England. With pockets of upper 80s/low 90s F in parts of New England, storms have actually shown a modest increase in intensity over the last couple hours. Activity has remained more cellular with southern extent. These cells will continue moving northeast through the afternoon. Isolated wind damage is possible. Farther north, Effective shear and forcing for ascent are greater. A linear segment is moving north-northeast in northern Vermont. Additional strong storms in southern Quebec may eventually impact portions of western/northern Maine. Even though temperatures have remained cooler in Maine, stronger forcing should still promote a wind damage threat. ..Wendt.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI... LAT...LON 42017205 40907320 40607436 40907443 41297408 41607382 42307355 44287333 45017303 46047234 46916954 46346909 44427002 42017205 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1371 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1371 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...eastern Montana and western North Dakota. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 192041Z - 192215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...There is a conditional supercell threat across eastern Montana and western North Dakota with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Strong heating across eastern Montana has resulted in a mostly uncapped airmass (according to SPC mesoanalysis) with 750 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. It is unclear whether storms will form this afternoon, but deepening towering cumulus on visible satellite indicate one or two storms may form this afternoon or during the early evening hours, significantly earlier than indicated by CAM guidance. If storms form, strong 45-50 knot shear across the region should result in supercells with a threat for large hail. In addition, given the hot, deeply-mixed boundary layer, severe wind will also be a threat from this activity. Some weak support from a low-level jet across the northern Plains could maintain this threat during the evening, and perhaps through the overnight hours as it moves east across North Dakota. Satellite/radar trends will continue to be monitored, and if storm development appears imminent, a severe thunderstorm watch will be issued. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 47930537 47920320 47690224 46780253 46560322 46620429 46810514 47020573 47200596 47610597 47820595 47930537 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0442 Status Updates
340- STATUS REPORT ON WW 442 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRB TO 5 SSE BWI TO 15 SE ABE TO 25 SSW MSV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372 ..MOORE..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RNK...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-192340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-192340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-009-011-017-019-029-033-035-037-039-041-045-047-192340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CAROLINE Read more

WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 441 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-013-015-192340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC003-011-013-015-027-192340- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE WORCESTER NJC003-013-017-031-039-192340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON PASSAIC UNION Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Elevated mid-level flow ahead of a an upper-level trough moving through the Northern Rockies will linger over the Intermountain West through the weekend. This will interact with a deep and well-mixed boundary layer over the Southwest to bring breezy winds amid low relative humidity amid dry fuels to support an ongoing fire weather threat across the region. A cold front will usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity across much of the Great Basin on Day 4/Sunday, translating fire weather concerns eastward into the greater Four Corners region. Farther west, dry northerly flow in the wake of a cold front still supports a fire weather threat across the California Central Valley on Day 3/Saturday. ...Day 5-6/Monday-Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western U.S. early next week reinforcing daytime elevated winds across portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona. Dry and breezy conditions will persist, with dry fuels aiding in increased wildfire spread potential. ...Day 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday... Synoptically driven dry and breezy conditions will wane across the western U.S. as the upper-level trough becomes more diffuse with weak mid and upper-level flow in its wake by midweek. In addition, model guidance consensus suggests moisture beginning to intrude into western New Mexico and southern Arizona as early as Day 5/Monday. Initial surge of moisture could bring a dry thunderstorm threat to the area where fuels are very dry but confidence remains low, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Elevated mid-level flow ahead of a an upper-level trough moving through the Northern Rockies will linger over the Intermountain West through the weekend. This will interact with a deep and well-mixed boundary layer over the Southwest to bring breezy winds amid low relative humidity amid dry fuels to support an ongoing fire weather threat across the region. A cold front will usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity across much of the Great Basin on Day 4/Sunday, translating fire weather concerns eastward into the greater Four Corners region. Farther west, dry northerly flow in the wake of a cold front still supports a fire weather threat across the California Central Valley on Day 3/Saturday. ...Day 5-6/Monday-Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western U.S. early next week reinforcing daytime elevated winds across portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona. Dry and breezy conditions will persist, with dry fuels aiding in increased wildfire spread potential. ...Day 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday... Synoptically driven dry and breezy conditions will wane across the western U.S. as the upper-level trough becomes more diffuse with weak mid and upper-level flow in its wake by midweek. In addition, model guidance consensus suggests moisture beginning to intrude into western New Mexico and southern Arizona as early as Day 5/Monday. Initial surge of moisture could bring a dry thunderstorm threat to the area where fuels are very dry but confidence remains low, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more