Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin
inland over southern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Beven
NHC Webmaster

End of mandatory drought restrictions in Doylestown, Pennsylvania

2 months 1 week ago
Doylestown Township ended its mandatory drought restrictions after abundant rainfall and cooler temperatures restored groundwater well levels to pre-drought conditions. Residents were asked to continue to be mindful of their water use. TAPinto (Hackensack, N.J.), June 20, 2025 Mandatory drought restrictions for all Doylestown Borough Water Department customers were lifted as rain improved the system’s groundwater levels to pre-drought levels, according to the water department. The mandatory water restrictions took effect last fall. According to officials, the borough was moving from a Stage II Drought Warning to a Stage I Drought Watch. If groundwater levels continued to rise through June, all stages would be lifted. Doylestown, PA Patch, June 3, 2025 Mandatory water restrictions on nonessential water use remained in effect for Doylestown Borough since its drought warning was declared in November 2024. Residents may not use hoses or sprinklers to water shrubs, trees or lawns or wash cars. Area aquifers have not yet recovered after last year’s drought. Doylestown Township has similar restrictions in place on the use of public water due to the drought. TAPinto (Hackensack, N.J.), May 20, 2025 The Doylestown Township Municipal Authority issued a drought emergency declaration as groundwater levels declined due to the ongoing drought. Water users were urged to curb their water use by 15% to 20%. Under the declaration, outdoor watering and vehicle washing were prohibited. PhillyBurbs.com (Philadelphia, Pa.), Nov 14, 2024

Mandatory water restrictions in southwest Iowa

2 months 1 week ago
Cities in southwest Iowa that receive water from the Regional Water Rural Water Association remained in a “red” level advisory that restricts some activities like lawn watering, pool filling and car washing. Drought over the past 10 years has affected groundwater stores. Iowa Capital Dispatch (Des Moines, Iowa), June 18, 2025 Water demand has exceeded sustainable water supply levels, particularly during peak use periods. A Level Red advisory has been declared for water customers in Shelby, Audubon, Cass, Harrison, and Northern Pottawattamie counties, which receive water from the Avoca Treatment Plant System. Wells were low due to drought, and water sources were operating at less than 60% of capacity. This includes the communities of Avoca, Persia, Panama, Portsmouth, Westphalia, Kirkman, Tennant, Earling, Exira, and Brayton. Some of the mandatory water use restrictions included prohibition on outdoor watering, pavement washing, vehicle washing, and pool filling and refilling. Regional Water Rural Water Association (Avoca, Iowa), May 14, 2025

Stage 4 water conservation in Shenandoah, Iowa

2 months 1 week ago
Water users in Shenandoah have been under water restrictions for about a year and a half. The city was presently in a stage four restriction prohibiting lawn watering, pool filling and watering with a hose outdoors. Iowa Capital Dispatch (Des Moines, Iowa), June 18, 2025 Shenandoah was in Stage 4 water conservation following a city council vote. Under stage 4 restrictions, water may not be used for non-commercial irrigation, except for businesses that sell or cultivate plants. KCCI TV 8 (Des Moines, Iowa), Oct 24, 2024

Drought watch for the Metro Washington, D.C. area

2 months 1 week ago
The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments announced that the regional drought watch had been lifted, citing improved water supplies. The watch took effect in July 2024. The region has returned to the normal stage of the Regional Water Supply and Drought Awareness Response Plan. ARLnow (Arlington, Va.), June 20, 2025 The District of Columbia region remained in a drought watch that began in July 2024. Water reserves may need to be used this summer if sufficient rain does not fall. WTOP News (Washington, D.C.), May 9, 2025 The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments announced that the drought watch, initially enacted in July, would continue through the fall and winter months. This marks the first regional drought watch since 2010, affecting nearly 6 million residents across the D.C. metro area. This comes as D.C. entered its 35th day without measurable rain, breaking the local record dating back to 1872, according to the Capital Weather Gang. ARLNow (Arlington, Va.), Nov 7, 2024 The Washington, D.C. area is under a drought watch as announced by the Drought Coordination Committee of the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments. Residents and businesses were urged to conserve water. ARLnow (Arlington, Va.), July 29, 2024

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...MPX...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-009-011-023-027-041-051-067-073-081-083-093-097-107-111- 121-127-129-145-149-151-153-155-159-167-173-200540- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BENTON BIG STONE CHIPPEWA CLAY DOUGLAS GRANT KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MEEKER MORRISON NORMAN OTTER TAIL POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT TODD TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN YELLOW MEDICINE NDC003-017-039-073-077-081-091-097-200540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS GRIGGS RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT STEELE TRAILL Read more

SPC MD 1378

2 months 1 week ago
MD 1378 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...Central to southern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 200307Z - 200500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A lone supercell moving southward across central/southern Nebraska will likely continue to pose a very large hail/severe wind threat through at least 04-05 UTC. Watch issuance is currently not anticipated given the localized/isolated nature of the storm. DISCUSSION...A lone, but very intense, supercell has been ongoing across central NE over the past few hours with a history of producing 2+ inch hailstones and wind gusts upwards of 70 mph. The recent onset/strengthening of the nocturnal jet (very apparent in recent KUEX VWP observations) has regionally bolstered low-level SRH (upwards of 700 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH), which is very favorable for supercell maintenance despite the onset of nocturnal stabilization. Additionally, this cell is residing on the periphery of a reservoir of colder temperatures aloft over central NE that are supporting most-unstable lifted indices on the order of -8 to -10 C. Consequently, this cell will likely continue to pose a threat for very large hail (most likely 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and 60-70 mph gusts for at least the next couple of hours as it approaches the I-80 corridor. Diminishing mid-level flow with southward extent should lead to a gradual reduction in storm organization/intensity as the cell moves into south-central NE later this evening, though the exact timing of storm demise remains uncertain given the well-established mesocyclone. ..Moore/Smith.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 41469905 41659891 41719866 41639836 40749781 40439778 40209800 40059828 40049856 40099887 40199914 40379920 40689922 41469905 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE Y22 TO 65 NW MOT. ..SPC..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-009-015-019-021-027-029-031-037-043-045-047-049-051-055- 057-059-065-069-071-075-079-083-085-093-095-101-103-200540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH CAVALIER DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRANT KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER MORTON OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX STUTSMAN TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE Y22 TO 65 NW MOT. ..SPC..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-009-015-019-021-027-029-031-037-043-045-047-049-051-055- 057-059-065-069-071-075-079-083-085-093-095-101-103-200540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH CAVALIER DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRANT KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER MORTON OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX STUTSMAN TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE Y22 TO 65 NW MOT. ..SPC..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-009-015-019-021-027-029-031-037-043-045-047-049-051-055- 057-059-065-069-071-075-079-083-085-093-095-101-103-200540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH CAVALIER DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRANT KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER MORTON OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX STUTSMAN TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE Y22 TO 65 NW MOT. ..SPC..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-009-015-019-021-027-029-031-037-043-045-047-049-051-055- 057-059-065-069-071-075-079-083-085-093-095-101-103-200540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH CAVALIER DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRANT KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER MORTON OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX STUTSMAN TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE Y22 TO 65 NW MOT. ..SPC..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-009-015-019-021-027-029-031-037-043-045-047-049-051-055- 057-059-065-069-071-075-079-083-085-093-095-101-103-200540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH CAVALIER DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRANT KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER MORTON OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX STUTSMAN TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445

2 months 1 week ago
WW 445 SEVERE TSTM ND 192330Z - 200600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 445 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Much of North Dakota * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 630 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast this evening into the early overnight period. Ample deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will support discrete supercells posing a risk for large to very large hail and isolated severe gusts. A small cluster of storms may eventually evolve over the eastern half of the Watch later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles northeast of Minot ND to 55 miles south southwest of Bismarck ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 441...WW 442...WW 443...WW 444... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Smith Read more

SPC MD 1377

2 months 1 week ago
MD 1377 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 200109Z - 200315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across southeastern ND into northwestern MN this evening. Storm coverage should increase later this evening. Hail and wind are possible. DISCUSSION...Surface boundary is currently draped from central MN into southeast ND. Modest 1km flow is impinging on this boundary and an elongated corridor of low-level warm advection will hold across this region much of tonight. Isolated severe thunderstorms are currently noted across this region, but storm coverage should increase late this evening as a weak short-wave trough tops the ridge and digs southeast toward MN. In response, LLJ should increase markedly by 06z across NE into eastern SD/southwestern MN and convection should increase across this corridor. Unless ongoing activity increases in areal coverage over the next hour or so, will likely hold off on issuing a new severe thunderstorm watch until stronger large-scale support affects this region. ..Darrow/Smith.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... LAT...LON 47679730 46739442 45819499 46249787 47679730 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-007-009-015-019-021-025-027-029-031-037-041-043-045-047- 049-051-055-057-059-061-065-069-071-075-079-083-085-089-093-095- 101-103-200340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH CAVALIER DICKEY DUNN EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRANT HETTINGER KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX STARK STUTSMAN TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...MPX...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-009-011-023-027-041-051-067-073-081-083-093-097-107-111- 121-127-129-145-149-151-153-155-159-167-173-200340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BENTON BIG STONE CHIPPEWA CLAY DOUGLAS GRANT KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MEEKER MORRISON NORMAN OTTER TAIL POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT TODD TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN YELLOW MEDICINE NDC003-017-039-073-077-081-091-097-200340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS GRIGGS RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT STEELE TRAILL Read more