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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST IA...THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are forecast to move from the central Rockies towards the northern Great Plains on Sunday. A surface low will move from NE/SD northeast toward Lake Superior, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the northern/central Plains. Downstream, an upper ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS through the day, as a shortwave trough initially over New England moves offshore. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is again forecast to develop along/ahead of the cold front across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Guidance generally suggests that stronger ascent and deep-layer flow associated with the ejecting mid/upper-level shortwave trough may lag behind the front, resulting in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude and coverage of the severe threat. However, strong diurnal heating will support potential for storm development in the vicinity of the front, and also southward along a surface trough into the central and perhaps southern High Plains. Given the magnitude of instability, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, with a few strong cells or clusters possible. A Slight Risk has been added from central NE into MN, where confidence is currently greatest in development of widely scattered strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Convection may persist into late Sunday night, with an isolated severe threat spreading gradually eastward. Isolated severe storms will also be possible within the post-frontal regime across the central/northern High Plains, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude of MUCAPE in this region. High-based storms may develop into parts of the southern High Plains, with a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Guidance varies substantially regarding the strength/timing of the shortwave trough and related flow fields that will move across New England Sunday morning. Depending on the strength of the system and the evolution of convection on D2/Saturday, there is some potential for isolated strong to severe storms Sunday across the region, given the presence of increasing buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear. A slower system could result in a more robust diurnal threat, while a faster system may confine the primary threat to the morning. ..Dean.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST IA...THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are forecast to move from the central Rockies towards the northern Great Plains on Sunday. A surface low will move from NE/SD northeast toward Lake Superior, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the northern/central Plains. Downstream, an upper ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS through the day, as a shortwave trough initially over New England moves offshore. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is again forecast to develop along/ahead of the cold front across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Guidance generally suggests that stronger ascent and deep-layer flow associated with the ejecting mid/upper-level shortwave trough may lag behind the front, resulting in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude and coverage of the severe threat. However, strong diurnal heating will support potential for storm development in the vicinity of the front, and also southward along a surface trough into the central and perhaps southern High Plains. Given the magnitude of instability, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, with a few strong cells or clusters possible. A Slight Risk has been added from central NE into MN, where confidence is currently greatest in development of widely scattered strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Convection may persist into late Sunday night, with an isolated severe threat spreading gradually eastward. Isolated severe storms will also be possible within the post-frontal regime across the central/northern High Plains, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude of MUCAPE in this region. High-based storms may develop into parts of the southern High Plains, with a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Guidance varies substantially regarding the strength/timing of the shortwave trough and related flow fields that will move across New England Sunday morning. Depending on the strength of the system and the evolution of convection on D2/Saturday, there is some potential for isolated strong to severe storms Sunday across the region, given the presence of increasing buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear. A slower system could result in a more robust diurnal threat, while a faster system may confine the primary threat to the morning. ..Dean.. 06/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST IA...THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop on Sunday from parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are forecast to move from the central Rockies towards the northern Great Plains on Sunday. A surface low will move from NE/SD northeast toward Lake Superior, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the northern/central Plains. Downstream, an upper ridge will amplify further across the eastern CONUS through the day, as a shortwave trough initially over New England moves offshore. ...Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is again forecast to develop along/ahead of the cold front across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Guidance generally suggests that stronger ascent and deep-layer flow associated with the ejecting mid/upper-level shortwave trough may lag behind the front, resulting in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude and coverage of the severe threat. However, strong diurnal heating will support potential for storm development in the vicinity of the front, and also southward along a surface trough into the central and perhaps southern High Plains. Given the magnitude of instability, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, with a few strong cells or clusters possible. A Slight Risk has been added from central NE into MN, where confidence is currently greatest in development of widely scattered strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Convection may persist into late Sunday night, with an isolated severe threat spreading gradually eastward. Isolated severe storms will also be possible within the post-frontal regime across the central/northern High Plains, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude of MUCAPE in this region. High-based storms may develop into parts of the southern High Plains, with a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Guidance varies substantially regarding the strength/timing of the shortwave trough and related flow fields that will move across New England Sunday morning. Depending on the strength of the system and the evolution of convection on D2/Saturday, there is some potential for isolated strong to severe storms Sunday across the region, given the presence of increasing buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear. A slower system could result in a more robust diurnal threat, while a faster system may confine the primary threat to the morning. ..Dean.. 06/20/2025 Read more

MD 1380 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MN INTO PARTS OF WI AND IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1380 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Areas affected...southeast MN into parts of WI and IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 200544Z - 200745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong/isolated severe thunderstorms will develop/persist into the early morning hours. Marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with these storms. DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing within a warm advection regime across portions of the MCD area as an 850 mb low-level jet noses into IA/southern MN. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft, becoming southerly in the low-levels, is support effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. This should allow for some organized storm structures as convection develops southeast across a modestly unstable airmass. Cool temperatures aloft (around -10 to -12 C per 00z regional RAOBs) and steep midlevel lapse rates combined with favorable shear will support isolated marginally severe hail. Strong low-level inhibition is present given time of day and the cooling boundary layer, but any organized bowing segments could produce strong gusts as well. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. ..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 45529440 45849270 45779062 45218938 44768859 44428840 44048859 43538934 42919066 42539233 42509321 42659406 42949429 44079494 44789494 45529440 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Another day of widespread fire weather concerns is expected across the eastern Great Basin Saturday afternoon. The primary upper-level low, currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is forecast to shift east into the northern Great Basin through late Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Basin ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Dry, windy conditions ahead of the front will promote widespread fire weather concerns over a region with ongoing active fires. ...Eastern Great Basin... Early-morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across much of the Southwest/Great Basin (overnight RH values remain in the single digits to low teens). Continued dry/windy conditions today will maintain this dry air mass through Saturday. A combination of very dry low-level conditions and abundant daytime heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across the region, which will facilitate downward transport of 30-40 knot mid-level flow. Latest high-res ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds from southern NV/northern AZ northward into southern WY. With afternoon RH minimums in the single digits, critical conditions appear likely. Winds gusting up to 35-45 mph will support periods of extremely critical conditions. Winds are forecast to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly with the passage of the cold front during the late evening/overnight hours, but dry post-frontal conditions may support additional fire spread. ...CA Central Valley... Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph through the day within the Central Valley. Some degree of downslope warming will promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s by late afternoon. With dry grasses already in place, the dry/windy conditions will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...High Plains... West to southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph behind a surface trough/dryline draped along the High Plains. Most forecast guidance suggests that somewhat widespread elevated fire weather conditions will emerge within this regime from northeast NM into eastern CO, southeast WY, and adjacent portions of western SD, NE, and KS. Despite the potential for widespread dry/windy conditions, recent rainfall has mitigate fuel status for the time being and has promoted widespread green up of most grasses. Because of this highlights were withheld, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW BKX TO 35 N ATY TO 40 SSW TVF. ..LEITMAN..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...MPX...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-009-011-023-027-033-041-051-063-067-073-081-083-093-097- 101-105-107-111-117-121-127-129-133-145-149-151-153-155-159-167- 173-200740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BENTON BIG STONE CHIPPEWA CLAY COTTONWOOD DOUGLAS GRANT JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MEEKER MORRISON MURRAY NOBLES NORMAN OTTER TAIL PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT TODD TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN YELLOW MEDICINE SDC011-029-039-051-057-109-200740- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW BKX TO 35 N ATY TO 40 SSW TVF. ..LEITMAN..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...MPX...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-009-011-023-027-033-041-051-063-067-073-081-083-093-097- 101-105-107-111-117-121-127-129-133-145-149-151-153-155-159-167- 173-200740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BENTON BIG STONE CHIPPEWA CLAY COTTONWOOD DOUGLAS GRANT JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MEEKER MORRISON MURRAY NOBLES NORMAN OTTER TAIL PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT TODD TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN YELLOW MEDICINE SDC011-029-039-051-057-109-200740- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW BKX TO 35 N ATY TO 40 SSW TVF. ..LEITMAN..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...MPX...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-009-011-023-027-033-041-051-063-067-073-081-083-093-097- 101-105-107-111-117-121-127-129-133-145-149-151-153-155-159-167- 173-200740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BENTON BIG STONE CHIPPEWA CLAY COTTONWOOD DOUGLAS GRANT JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MEEKER MORRISON MURRAY NOBLES NORMAN OTTER TAIL PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT TODD TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN YELLOW MEDICINE SDC011-029-039-051-057-109-200740- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 446 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 200210Z - 200900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 446 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 910 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western into Central Minnesota Southeast North Dakota Northern into Northeast South Dakota * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 910 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms this evening will pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts. Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage late this evening into the overnight. The risks for hail and wind will likely continue as the expected thunderstorm activity gradually shifts from west to east across the Watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of Jamestown ND to 65 miles east southeast of Alexandria MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 443...WW 444...WW 445... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the Greater Four Corners region and the Great Basin. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a dominant upper ridge over the central CONUS with shortwave troughing over the western Great Basin and northeastern Pacific. The Great Basin shortwave is forecast to move into the northern High Plains through the afternoon, which will facilitate surface low development across eastern WY by late afternoon. Strengthening low-level winds in response to the deepening low will promote a widespread swath of 20-30 mph winds within a very dry air mass and across a region with receptive fuels. ...Four Corners into the High Plains... The axis of the mid-level jet associated with the leading shortwave is forecast to reside from southeast UT into southern WY by peak heating. This will maximize the potential for 20+ mph winds at the surface, and will likely support wind gusts between 30-45 mph. RH values in the single digits to low teens coupled with antecedent dry fuels (active fires were recently noted across southern UT in GOES IR imagery) will support widespread and prolonged critical conditions with periods of extremely critical wind speeds possible - especially across south-central WY. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will likely extend well to the northeast into the central High Plains, and possibly as far east and western South Dakota behind an eastward surging dry line. However, fuel conditions generally improve with eastward extent due to recent rainfall. Fire risk highlights have been expanded northeast to account for the strong wind/RH signal, but Critical highlights were focused across areas with dry, receptive fuels. ...Nevada into adjacent portions of Idaho and Utah... Southwesterly flow over the southern to central Sierra Nevada will induce strong downslope flow into western and central NV, spreading into southeast ID and western UT by late afternoon. Guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds through much of the afternoon, and single-digit RH values should support widespread critical fire weather conditions. ...Southern California into the San Joaquin Valley... A strong onshore pressure gradient will support increasing downslope winds on the leeward side/eastern slopes of the coastal ranges across southern California this afternoon. Relative humidities values falling into the teens within the downslope regime, coupled with dry grasses, will support a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the Greater Four Corners region and the Great Basin. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a dominant upper ridge over the central CONUS with shortwave troughing over the western Great Basin and northeastern Pacific. The Great Basin shortwave is forecast to move into the northern High Plains through the afternoon, which will facilitate surface low development across eastern WY by late afternoon. Strengthening low-level winds in response to the deepening low will promote a widespread swath of 20-30 mph winds within a very dry air mass and across a region with receptive fuels. ...Four Corners into the High Plains... The axis of the mid-level jet associated with the leading shortwave is forecast to reside from southeast UT into southern WY by peak heating. This will maximize the potential for 20+ mph winds at the surface, and will likely support wind gusts between 30-45 mph. RH values in the single digits to low teens coupled with antecedent dry fuels (active fires were recently noted across southern UT in GOES IR imagery) will support widespread and prolonged critical conditions with periods of extremely critical wind speeds possible - especially across south-central WY. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will likely extend well to the northeast into the central High Plains, and possibly as far east and western South Dakota behind an eastward surging dry line. However, fuel conditions generally improve with eastward extent due to recent rainfall. Fire risk highlights have been expanded northeast to account for the strong wind/RH signal, but Critical highlights were focused across areas with dry, receptive fuels. ...Nevada into adjacent portions of Idaho and Utah... Southwesterly flow over the southern to central Sierra Nevada will induce strong downslope flow into western and central NV, spreading into southeast ID and western UT by late afternoon. Guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds through much of the afternoon, and single-digit RH values should support widespread critical fire weather conditions. ...Southern California into the San Joaquin Valley... A strong onshore pressure gradient will support increasing downslope winds on the leeward side/eastern slopes of the coastal ranges across southern California this afternoon. Relative humidities values falling into the teens within the downslope regime, coupled with dry grasses, will support a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the Greater Four Corners region and the Great Basin. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a dominant upper ridge over the central CONUS with shortwave troughing over the western Great Basin and northeastern Pacific. The Great Basin shortwave is forecast to move into the northern High Plains through the afternoon, which will facilitate surface low development across eastern WY by late afternoon. Strengthening low-level winds in response to the deepening low will promote a widespread swath of 20-30 mph winds within a very dry air mass and across a region with receptive fuels. ...Four Corners into the High Plains... The axis of the mid-level jet associated with the leading shortwave is forecast to reside from southeast UT into southern WY by peak heating. This will maximize the potential for 20+ mph winds at the surface, and will likely support wind gusts between 30-45 mph. RH values in the single digits to low teens coupled with antecedent dry fuels (active fires were recently noted across southern UT in GOES IR imagery) will support widespread and prolonged critical conditions with periods of extremely critical wind speeds possible - especially across south-central WY. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will likely extend well to the northeast into the central High Plains, and possibly as far east and western South Dakota behind an eastward surging dry line. However, fuel conditions generally improve with eastward extent due to recent rainfall. Fire risk highlights have been expanded northeast to account for the strong wind/RH signal, but Critical highlights were focused across areas with dry, receptive fuels. ...Nevada into adjacent portions of Idaho and Utah... Southwesterly flow over the southern to central Sierra Nevada will induce strong downslope flow into western and central NV, spreading into southeast ID and western UT by late afternoon. Guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds through much of the afternoon, and single-digit RH values should support widespread critical fire weather conditions. ...Southern California into the San Joaquin Valley... A strong onshore pressure gradient will support increasing downslope winds on the leeward side/eastern slopes of the coastal ranges across southern California this afternoon. Relative humidities values falling into the teens within the downslope regime, coupled with dry grasses, will support a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the Greater Four Corners region and the Great Basin. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a dominant upper ridge over the central CONUS with shortwave troughing over the western Great Basin and northeastern Pacific. The Great Basin shortwave is forecast to move into the northern High Plains through the afternoon, which will facilitate surface low development across eastern WY by late afternoon. Strengthening low-level winds in response to the deepening low will promote a widespread swath of 20-30 mph winds within a very dry air mass and across a region with receptive fuels. ...Four Corners into the High Plains... The axis of the mid-level jet associated with the leading shortwave is forecast to reside from southeast UT into southern WY by peak heating. This will maximize the potential for 20+ mph winds at the surface, and will likely support wind gusts between 30-45 mph. RH values in the single digits to low teens coupled with antecedent dry fuels (active fires were recently noted across southern UT in GOES IR imagery) will support widespread and prolonged critical conditions with periods of extremely critical wind speeds possible - especially across south-central WY. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will likely extend well to the northeast into the central High Plains, and possibly as far east and western South Dakota behind an eastward surging dry line. However, fuel conditions generally improve with eastward extent due to recent rainfall. Fire risk highlights have been expanded northeast to account for the strong wind/RH signal, but Critical highlights were focused across areas with dry, receptive fuels. ...Nevada into adjacent portions of Idaho and Utah... Southwesterly flow over the southern to central Sierra Nevada will induce strong downslope flow into western and central NV, spreading into southeast ID and western UT by late afternoon. Guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds through much of the afternoon, and single-digit RH values should support widespread critical fire weather conditions. ...Southern California into the San Joaquin Valley... A strong onshore pressure gradient will support increasing downslope winds on the leeward side/eastern slopes of the coastal ranges across southern California this afternoon. Relative humidities values falling into the teens within the downslope regime, coupled with dry grasses, will support a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the Greater Four Corners region and the Great Basin. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a dominant upper ridge over the central CONUS with shortwave troughing over the western Great Basin and northeastern Pacific. The Great Basin shortwave is forecast to move into the northern High Plains through the afternoon, which will facilitate surface low development across eastern WY by late afternoon. Strengthening low-level winds in response to the deepening low will promote a widespread swath of 20-30 mph winds within a very dry air mass and across a region with receptive fuels. ...Four Corners into the High Plains... The axis of the mid-level jet associated with the leading shortwave is forecast to reside from southeast UT into southern WY by peak heating. This will maximize the potential for 20+ mph winds at the surface, and will likely support wind gusts between 30-45 mph. RH values in the single digits to low teens coupled with antecedent dry fuels (active fires were recently noted across southern UT in GOES IR imagery) will support widespread and prolonged critical conditions with periods of extremely critical wind speeds possible - especially across south-central WY. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will likely extend well to the northeast into the central High Plains, and possibly as far east and western South Dakota behind an eastward surging dry line. However, fuel conditions generally improve with eastward extent due to recent rainfall. Fire risk highlights have been expanded northeast to account for the strong wind/RH signal, but Critical highlights were focused across areas with dry, receptive fuels. ...Nevada into adjacent portions of Idaho and Utah... Southwesterly flow over the southern to central Sierra Nevada will induce strong downslope flow into western and central NV, spreading into southeast ID and western UT by late afternoon. Guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds through much of the afternoon, and single-digit RH values should support widespread critical fire weather conditions. ...Southern California into the San Joaquin Valley... A strong onshore pressure gradient will support increasing downslope winds on the leeward side/eastern slopes of the coastal ranges across southern California this afternoon. Relative humidities values falling into the teens within the downslope regime, coupled with dry grasses, will support a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more