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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization into line segments and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset. ...Southeast... In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity where additional storms are not expected. Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains tonight. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization into line segments and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset. ...Southeast... In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity where additional storms are not expected. Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains tonight. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization into line segments and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset. ...Southeast... In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity where additional storms are not expected. Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains tonight. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization into line segments and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset. ...Southeast... In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity where additional storms are not expected. Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains tonight. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization into line segments and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset. ...Southeast... In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity where additional storms are not expected. Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains tonight. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization into line segments and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset. ...Southeast... In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity where additional storms are not expected. Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains tonight. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization into line segments and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset. ...Southeast... In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity where additional storms are not expected. Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains tonight. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization into line segments and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset. ...Southeast... In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity where additional storms are not expected. Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains tonight. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization into line segments and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset. ...Southeast... In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity where additional storms are not expected. Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains tonight. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization into line segments and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset. ...Southeast... In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity where additional storms are not expected. Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains tonight. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization into line segments and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset. ...Southeast... In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity where additional storms are not expected. Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains tonight. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization into line segments and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset. ...Southeast... In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity where additional storms are not expected. Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains tonight. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization into line segments and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset. ...Southeast... In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity where additional storms are not expected. Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains tonight. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization into line segments and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset. ...Southeast... In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity where additional storms are not expected. Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains tonight. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization into line segments and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset. ...Southeast... In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity where additional storms are not expected. Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains tonight. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minimal changes. Across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, several bands/clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of an upper trough over the upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization into line segments and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging gusts focused across the Enhanced area. A few weak supercell structures were also noted over eastern PA into southern New England, where some isolated hail and a brief tornado will be possible. Convection should continue into this evening before slowly weakening after sunset. ...Southeast... In the wake of early morning remnant storms, an advancing outflow has shifted south across MS/AL and eastern AR. The cluster of storms on the surging outflow may occasionally produce damaging guts given the moderate instability. Weak vertical shear should keep the threat isolated. Have trimmed the MRGL and thunder behind this activity where additional storms are not expected. Otherwise, additional storms are possible across the Northern Plains tonight. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. Read more

MD 1368 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 1368 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...New Hampshire into western/northern Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191853Z - 192000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A watch is likely this afternoon as widely scattered to scattered storms move northeast. Wind damage and a brief tornado are possible. DISCUSSION...Surface heating has been greater in New Hampshire and western Maine. Portions of northern Maine are beginning now beginning to heat as low-level cloud cover erodes and the warm front lifts into Quebec. Upstream convection has not deepened very quickly, particularly in northeast New York and Vermont. The more discrete activity in southeast New York into Connecticut/Massachusetts has shown marginally more intense/deep updrafts. Even with less than ideal thermodynamics, low-level lapse rates have steepened where temperatures have risen into the 80s F and stronger mid-level ascent continues to approach the Northeast. The strongest storms will be capable damaging wind gusts. Low-level shear is also sufficient for a brief tornado. ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 43187118 42817142 42867228 43537215 44587145 45047144 46127020 46336996 46346956 46146922 45736940 45176981 43477104 43187118 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more