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MD 1365 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1365 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...northeast Georgia...western South Carolina and western North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191732Z - 191900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Low 70s dewpoints and mid 80s temperatures have yielded 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE from northeast Georgia to western North Carolina. This moderate shear and convergence within a lee trough and uncapped environment should result in scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Around 30 knots of shear is being sampled by the GSP VWP which will be sufficient for some storm organization across western South Carolina and western North Carolina. Farther south, much weaker shear is present (15 knots per FFC VWP). Therefore, despite very strong instability, the severe weather threat should remain more isolated. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34268386 35198279 36388164 36628072 36648011 36477919 35547939 34228112 33558207 33438280 33548368 33798394 34268386 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0442 Status Updates
940- STATUS REPORT ON WW 442 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RNK...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-191940- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-191940- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-510-191940- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK Read more

WW 0442 Status Updates
940- STATUS REPORT ON WW 442 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RNK...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-191940- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-191940- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-510-191940- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK Read more

WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 441 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-013-015-191940- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC003-011-013-015-027-191940- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE WORCESTER NJC003-013-017-031-039-191940- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON PASSAIC UNION Read more

WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 441 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-013-015-191940- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC003-011-013-015-027-191940- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE WORCESTER NJC003-013-017-031-039-191940- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON PASSAIC UNION Read more

MD 1363 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191644Z - 191815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows deepening towering cumulus across central and eastern New York amid moderate instability in an uncapped environment. As storms deepen, some organization/updraft rotation is expected given moderate shear (50 knots at 3km per ENX VWP). Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threat from this activity. Storm coverage may be somewhat isolated early this afternoon as the upper-level trough and surface front remain across the eastern Great Lakes/southern Ontario. Additional storms may arrive this evening as those features move east, but instability will likely be weaker by this time, and the severe threat remains questionable by later this evening. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF... CTP... LAT...LON 41727697 43137600 45007485 45087370 45077361 45037202 44287197 42447221 41197276 40967327 40887370 40797446 40827510 40927587 41117637 41727697 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0442 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0442 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 17:31:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 15:22:21 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 191730 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1200 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...HURRICANE ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 99.0W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Escondido A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 99.0 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico until it dissipates tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely dissipate tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches in portions of the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the states of, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to continue for a couple of more hours in portions of the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions will likely continue into the late afternoon in the tropical storm warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding along portions of the coast of southern Mexico in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico throughout the day. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HURRICANE ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... As of 12:00 PM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 17.1, -99.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant severe wind and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving upper trough should push into western Dakotas. ...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA, southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend during the day. Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts. Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here, a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here. Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more