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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail and damaging wind threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...Eastern US... A broad and low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the trough, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from eastern NY and much of New England southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas. Warm/moist conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across this broad area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the highest concentrations moving off the higher terrain of PA/VA/NC and tracking eastward across the ENH risk area. Forecast soundings along this corridor show 35-50 knot westerly flow aloft, which will aid in thunderstorm organization and longevity. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, and mid-level lapse rates are marginal for intense updrafts. This suggests that damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today. ...ND/MN/WI This Evening/Tonight... A large upper ridge has become established across the Rockies and High Plains, with the primary westerlies now extending from MT into the Dakotas and Great Lakes. Several weak perturbations will top the ridge today and tonight, and a strengthening low-level jet will encourage the development of clusters of thunderstorms. One cluster is expected this evening over parts of MN/WI, with a risk of large hail. There is increasing concern for a cluster of storms developing across southern ND, which may persist through the night into southern MN. While this scenario is only shown in a handful of 12z models, have shifted the SLGT farther south for this conditional risk. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/19/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 19 16:20:02 UTC 2025.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 14:39:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 15:22:21 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 14:39:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 15:22:18 GMT

The Baker County Board of Commissioners asked Gov. Tina Kotek to declare a drought emergency after the county endured the driest spring since at least World War II. Commissioners voted unanimously on June 18 to declare a local drought disaster. Ranchers were moving their livestock to other rangeland for grazing earlier than usual, which will lead to a shortage of rangeland feed later in the year. The wildfire threat was elevated due to the dryness. Baker City Herald (Wash.), June 18, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 14:39:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 14:39:31 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 191438 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 Erick made landfall in the municipality of Santiago Pinotepa Nacional in extreme western Oaxaca, Mexico, around 1130 UTC this morning with maximum sustained winds estimated to be near 110 kt (125 mph). It should be noted that the major hurricane's structure was degrading as it approached the coast. In fact, the eye feature was not apparent at the landfall time, making the exact location and time that Erick crossed the coast uncertain. Erick was the earliest major hurricane landfall in Mexico since records began, and that includes both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. The hurricane has been rapidly weakening since it made landfall. The inner core appears to be collapsing with cloud tops warming near the center. The strongest convection is located to the west of the inner core near and to the south of Acapulco. The initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt, but there is a high amount of uncertainty around that value. Continued rapid weakening is forecast as the system moves northwestward and farther inland, and Erick is expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of southwestern Mexico by tonight. Although the winds are expected to continue to decrease rapidly, heavy rains will linger over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico. So far, there has been a report of about 250 mm (10 in) of rain in El Marques in Oaxaca, and additional heavy rains are expected through tonight. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick will continue to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico mainly through tonight. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. Hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will continue for a couple of more hours in the hurricane warning area. 3. Storm surge could still produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.7N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 191437 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 1500 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ACAPULCO 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) P MALDONADO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P MALDONADO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P MALDONADO 64 31 X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 191437 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...HURRICANE ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...FLOODING RAINS AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 98.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings east of Puerto Escondido and discontinued the Hurricane Watch west of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Escondido A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 98.8 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico until it dissipates tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely dissipate tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches in portions of the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the states of, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to continue for a couple of more hours in portions of the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions will likely continue into the afternoon in the tropical storm warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding along portions of the coast of southern Mexico in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico throughout the day. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HURRICANE ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...FLOODING RAINS AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 16.7, -98.8 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 191437 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 1500 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 98.8W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 98.8W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 98.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 98.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Mid-Atlantic region today, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe/damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. An isolated large hail threat should also develop across parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. ...New England/Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina... An upper trough will move eastward today from the Great Lakes/OH Valley across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Seasonably strong southwesterly mid-level flow around 40-50 kt will accompany this upper trough passage, and aid in sufficient deep-layer shear for organized severe thunderstorms across these regions. Recent visible satellite imagery and surface observations show mostly clear skies and a moist low-level airmass already in place from the Appalachians towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Ample diurnal heating through this afternoon should support moderate to locally strong instability across much of the Mid-Atlantic, with somewhat weaker instability with northward extent into interior New England. Current expectations are for multiple cells/clusters to initially form over the higher terrain of the Appalachians/Blue Ridge Mountains by early to mid afternoon, and subsequently spread east-northward to the coast through the afternoon and evening. Given steepened low-level lapse rates and enhanced low/mid-level flow associated with the upper trough, scattered to potentially numerous severe/damaging winds will likely be the primary threat with this convection. The greatest concentration of wind damage should be focused across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the Enhanced Risk has been maintained with only minor expansion. Otherwise, isolated hail may also occur with any of the more cellular convection, even though mid-level lapse rates are not forecast to be overly steep. A brief tornado or two also appears possible, although low-level winds will generally be veered to west-southwesterly, limiting 0-1 km SRH. ...Southeast... A band of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across parts of the Mid-South/Southeast. This activity has generally remained sub-severe overnight, and on the southern periphery of an upper trough to the north. With strong daytime heating of a rather moist low-level airmass in place to its south and modest deep-layer shear for updraft organization, there is some opportunity for this convection to either restrengthen through the afternoon as it spreads southward, or for redevelopment to occur along its outflow. Have adjusted the Marginal Risk for damaging winds based on the current position of ongoing thunderstorms, and their potential to move southward across parts of the Southeast/central Gulf Coast states this afternoon/early evening before eventually weakening near the Gulf Coast. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be maintained today over much of the Rockies and High Plains. This will tend to suppress convective development for much of the day. Still, a weak mid-level shortwave trough will move from western Canada across the Canadian Prairie provinces today, eventually reaching parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest tonight. This feature, along with increasing low-level warm/moist advection associated with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the northern/central Plains this evening, may be sufficient to aid at least isolated robust thunderstorm development tonight generally along and north of a surface boundary. Strong MUCAPE, steep lapse rates aloft, and ample deep-layer shear would likely support supercells with associated threat for large hail in a favorable northwesterly mid/upper-level flow regime. There is still some uncertainty with the placement and overall coverage of these supercells tonight, but based on latest guidance trends the Slight Risk has been expanded eastward to include more of central/eastern MN and western/northern WI. Isolated damaging winds may also occur if an MCS is able to develop, although this remains highly uncertain. ...Central Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon across parts of the central Plains along/east of surface lee troughing. Even though deep-layer shear and forcing aloft will not be as pronounced as farther north, there appears to be some chance for high-based convection to develop and pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/19/2025 Read more