Aggregator

Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 938 WTPZ35 KNHC 180832 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 ...ERICK EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 95.4W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 95.4 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected today, and the system may reach major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area later today and tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Blake

...ERICK EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... As of 3:00 AM CST Wed Jun 18 the center of Erick was located near 13.3, -95.4 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 281 WTPZ25 KNHC 180832 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 95.4W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 95.4W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 95.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.9N 96.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.0N 97.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 100.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 95.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/BLAKE

MD 1342 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1342 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Areas affected...parts of eastern Oklahoma into southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431... Valid 180614Z - 180815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431 continues. SUMMARY...The organized cluster of storms appears to be in the process of weakening as it rapidly progresses eastward into the Ozark Plateau. However, the potential for strong to severe surface gusts may be slower to diminish, and trends are being monitored for the possibility of an additional downstream severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...At least one notable meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation is being maintained, near/east of Bartlesville, OK. Strong westerly rear inflow, in excess of 60 kts, to its south is contributing to forward propagation of the main surface cold pool in excess of 50 kt, within a westerly ambient mean flow regime on the order of 25-30 kt. At this motion, activity could spread east of the Branson MO/Harrison AR vicinities between 07-08Z. 2-hourly surface pressure change observations evident indicate that a broad and significant surface pressure perturbation is being maintained with the convective system. However, radar has indicated substantive weakening of the more intense leading convective line the last hour or so. It remains unclear if this may be due to a potential stabilizing influence on easterly updraft inflow from a smaller preceding cluster, or the gradual increase in inhibition associated with boundary-layer cooling. Based on current model output and observations, weakening convective trends probably will continue through 08-09z, but strong to severe surface gusts may be a bit slower to diminish with the residual surface cold pool. ..Kerr.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 36739448 36959429 36879306 36039271 35709330 35819452 35959447 36389444 36739448 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge is forecast to amplify on Friday from the southern Plains into parts of the MS/OH Valleys, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough moves gradually eastward over the West. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward to the east of a deepening lee surface cyclone across the northern High Plains. Multiple shortwaves may emanate out of the western trough and traverse the periphery of the building ridge from the northern Rockies/Plains into the Upper Midwest and parts of Great Lakes. ...Northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Uncertainty remains high regarding the details of convective evolution Friday into Friday night, but potential for severe storm development within a relatively volatile environment remains evident. To the east of the High Plains cyclone and trailing surface trough, and along/south of an effective warm front, strong to extreme buoyancy will develop Friday afternoon across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Details of diurnal storm development (if any) within this regime remain unclear. Warming temperatures aloft may tend to suppress development across the warm sector, but shortwaves emanating out of the western mid/upper-level trough may aid in development of an isolated supercell or two near the surface trough/dryline and/or effective warm front. Any surface-based development within this regime could pose a threat for all severe hazards. A somewhat more likely scenario is for storms to expand in coverage near/north of the warm front during the evening, in response to a strengthening low-level jet and related warm-advection regime. Large to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support organized convection, with upscale growth into a potentially intense MCS possible with time. At this time, the most likely MCS corridor appears to be somewhere from eastern ND into central/northern MN, northern WI, and upper MI, though uncertainty remains high due to varying guidance solutions regarding the location of the warm front and evolution of the low-level jet. Despite the remaining uncertainty, a Slight Risk has been added given the conditional potential for significant severe weather. Some adjustments to this area will likely be needed with time, along with possible upgrades. ...Montana... Low-level easterly flow will transport modest moisture into parts of central/western MT during the day on Friday. Increasingly difluent upper-level flow associated with the deep western trough will support development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the day into Friday night. Elongated hodographs will support organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated hail and strong to severe gusts with initial convection over western MT. One or more clusters may move into central and northeast MT by evening, with a continued threat of severe gusts and hail. Depending on trends regarding destabilization, greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast... Modest low-level moistening is possible during the day on Friday from the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, within a developing northwesterly flow regime in the wake of a departing mid/upper-level trough. While wind profiles may become somewhat favorable for organized convection, relatively cool post-frontal conditions and generally weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit destabilization, and any foci for robust storm development are not clear at this time. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge is forecast to amplify on Friday from the southern Plains into parts of the MS/OH Valleys, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough moves gradually eastward over the West. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward to the east of a deepening lee surface cyclone across the northern High Plains. Multiple shortwaves may emanate out of the western trough and traverse the periphery of the building ridge from the northern Rockies/Plains into the Upper Midwest and parts of Great Lakes. ...Northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Uncertainty remains high regarding the details of convective evolution Friday into Friday night, but potential for severe storm development within a relatively volatile environment remains evident. To the east of the High Plains cyclone and trailing surface trough, and along/south of an effective warm front, strong to extreme buoyancy will develop Friday afternoon across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Details of diurnal storm development (if any) within this regime remain unclear. Warming temperatures aloft may tend to suppress development across the warm sector, but shortwaves emanating out of the western mid/upper-level trough may aid in development of an isolated supercell or two near the surface trough/dryline and/or effective warm front. Any surface-based development within this regime could pose a threat for all severe hazards. A somewhat more likely scenario is for storms to expand in coverage near/north of the warm front during the evening, in response to a strengthening low-level jet and related warm-advection regime. Large to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support organized convection, with upscale growth into a potentially intense MCS possible with time. At this time, the most likely MCS corridor appears to be somewhere from eastern ND into central/northern MN, northern WI, and upper MI, though uncertainty remains high due to varying guidance solutions regarding the location of the warm front and evolution of the low-level jet. Despite the remaining uncertainty, a Slight Risk has been added given the conditional potential for significant severe weather. Some adjustments to this area will likely be needed with time, along with possible upgrades. ...Montana... Low-level easterly flow will transport modest moisture into parts of central/western MT during the day on Friday. Increasingly difluent upper-level flow associated with the deep western trough will support development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the day into Friday night. Elongated hodographs will support organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated hail and strong to severe gusts with initial convection over western MT. One or more clusters may move into central and northeast MT by evening, with a continued threat of severe gusts and hail. Depending on trends regarding destabilization, greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast... Modest low-level moistening is possible during the day on Friday from the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, within a developing northwesterly flow regime in the wake of a departing mid/upper-level trough. While wind profiles may become somewhat favorable for organized convection, relatively cool post-frontal conditions and generally weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit destabilization, and any foci for robust storm development are not clear at this time. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge is forecast to amplify on Friday from the southern Plains into parts of the MS/OH Valleys, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough moves gradually eastward over the West. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward to the east of a deepening lee surface cyclone across the northern High Plains. Multiple shortwaves may emanate out of the western trough and traverse the periphery of the building ridge from the northern Rockies/Plains into the Upper Midwest and parts of Great Lakes. ...Northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Uncertainty remains high regarding the details of convective evolution Friday into Friday night, but potential for severe storm development within a relatively volatile environment remains evident. To the east of the High Plains cyclone and trailing surface trough, and along/south of an effective warm front, strong to extreme buoyancy will develop Friday afternoon across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Details of diurnal storm development (if any) within this regime remain unclear. Warming temperatures aloft may tend to suppress development across the warm sector, but shortwaves emanating out of the western mid/upper-level trough may aid in development of an isolated supercell or two near the surface trough/dryline and/or effective warm front. Any surface-based development within this regime could pose a threat for all severe hazards. A somewhat more likely scenario is for storms to expand in coverage near/north of the warm front during the evening, in response to a strengthening low-level jet and related warm-advection regime. Large to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support organized convection, with upscale growth into a potentially intense MCS possible with time. At this time, the most likely MCS corridor appears to be somewhere from eastern ND into central/northern MN, northern WI, and upper MI, though uncertainty remains high due to varying guidance solutions regarding the location of the warm front and evolution of the low-level jet. Despite the remaining uncertainty, a Slight Risk has been added given the conditional potential for significant severe weather. Some adjustments to this area will likely be needed with time, along with possible upgrades. ...Montana... Low-level easterly flow will transport modest moisture into parts of central/western MT during the day on Friday. Increasingly difluent upper-level flow associated with the deep western trough will support development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the day into Friday night. Elongated hodographs will support organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated hail and strong to severe gusts with initial convection over western MT. One or more clusters may move into central and northeast MT by evening, with a continued threat of severe gusts and hail. Depending on trends regarding destabilization, greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast... Modest low-level moistening is possible during the day on Friday from the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, within a developing northwesterly flow regime in the wake of a departing mid/upper-level trough. While wind profiles may become somewhat favorable for organized convection, relatively cool post-frontal conditions and generally weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit destabilization, and any foci for robust storm development are not clear at this time. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge is forecast to amplify on Friday from the southern Plains into parts of the MS/OH Valleys, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough moves gradually eastward over the West. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward to the east of a deepening lee surface cyclone across the northern High Plains. Multiple shortwaves may emanate out of the western trough and traverse the periphery of the building ridge from the northern Rockies/Plains into the Upper Midwest and parts of Great Lakes. ...Northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Uncertainty remains high regarding the details of convective evolution Friday into Friday night, but potential for severe storm development within a relatively volatile environment remains evident. To the east of the High Plains cyclone and trailing surface trough, and along/south of an effective warm front, strong to extreme buoyancy will develop Friday afternoon across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Details of diurnal storm development (if any) within this regime remain unclear. Warming temperatures aloft may tend to suppress development across the warm sector, but shortwaves emanating out of the western mid/upper-level trough may aid in development of an isolated supercell or two near the surface trough/dryline and/or effective warm front. Any surface-based development within this regime could pose a threat for all severe hazards. A somewhat more likely scenario is for storms to expand in coverage near/north of the warm front during the evening, in response to a strengthening low-level jet and related warm-advection regime. Large to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support organized convection, with upscale growth into a potentially intense MCS possible with time. At this time, the most likely MCS corridor appears to be somewhere from eastern ND into central/northern MN, northern WI, and upper MI, though uncertainty remains high due to varying guidance solutions regarding the location of the warm front and evolution of the low-level jet. Despite the remaining uncertainty, a Slight Risk has been added given the conditional potential for significant severe weather. Some adjustments to this area will likely be needed with time, along with possible upgrades. ...Montana... Low-level easterly flow will transport modest moisture into parts of central/western MT during the day on Friday. Increasingly difluent upper-level flow associated with the deep western trough will support development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the day into Friday night. Elongated hodographs will support organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated hail and strong to severe gusts with initial convection over western MT. One or more clusters may move into central and northeast MT by evening, with a continued threat of severe gusts and hail. Depending on trends regarding destabilization, greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast... Modest low-level moistening is possible during the day on Friday from the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, within a developing northwesterly flow regime in the wake of a departing mid/upper-level trough. While wind profiles may become somewhat favorable for organized convection, relatively cool post-frontal conditions and generally weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit destabilization, and any foci for robust storm development are not clear at this time. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge is forecast to amplify on Friday from the southern Plains into parts of the MS/OH Valleys, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough moves gradually eastward over the West. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward to the east of a deepening lee surface cyclone across the northern High Plains. Multiple shortwaves may emanate out of the western trough and traverse the periphery of the building ridge from the northern Rockies/Plains into the Upper Midwest and parts of Great Lakes. ...Northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Uncertainty remains high regarding the details of convective evolution Friday into Friday night, but potential for severe storm development within a relatively volatile environment remains evident. To the east of the High Plains cyclone and trailing surface trough, and along/south of an effective warm front, strong to extreme buoyancy will develop Friday afternoon across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Details of diurnal storm development (if any) within this regime remain unclear. Warming temperatures aloft may tend to suppress development across the warm sector, but shortwaves emanating out of the western mid/upper-level trough may aid in development of an isolated supercell or two near the surface trough/dryline and/or effective warm front. Any surface-based development within this regime could pose a threat for all severe hazards. A somewhat more likely scenario is for storms to expand in coverage near/north of the warm front during the evening, in response to a strengthening low-level jet and related warm-advection regime. Large to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support organized convection, with upscale growth into a potentially intense MCS possible with time. At this time, the most likely MCS corridor appears to be somewhere from eastern ND into central/northern MN, northern WI, and upper MI, though uncertainty remains high due to varying guidance solutions regarding the location of the warm front and evolution of the low-level jet. Despite the remaining uncertainty, a Slight Risk has been added given the conditional potential for significant severe weather. Some adjustments to this area will likely be needed with time, along with possible upgrades. ...Montana... Low-level easterly flow will transport modest moisture into parts of central/western MT during the day on Friday. Increasingly difluent upper-level flow associated with the deep western trough will support development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the day into Friday night. Elongated hodographs will support organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated hail and strong to severe gusts with initial convection over western MT. One or more clusters may move into central and northeast MT by evening, with a continued threat of severe gusts and hail. Depending on trends regarding destabilization, greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast... Modest low-level moistening is possible during the day on Friday from the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, within a developing northwesterly flow regime in the wake of a departing mid/upper-level trough. While wind profiles may become somewhat favorable for organized convection, relatively cool post-frontal conditions and generally weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit destabilization, and any foci for robust storm development are not clear at this time. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW END TO 5 NW MKO TO 5 S JLN TO 30 NNW JLN TO 50 NW SGF. ..KERR..06/18/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC015-033-047-087-180840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON MOC009-011-039-057-097-109-217-180840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CEDAR DADE JASPER LAWRENCE VERNON OKC015-017-027-051-063-073-081-083-087-091-101-107-109-111-125- 133-135-180840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 431 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 180230Z - 180900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 431 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 930 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Northwest Arkansas South-Central into Southeast Kansas Far Southwest Missouri Central and Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 930 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A pair severe thunderstorm clusters are ongoing across OK, one across west-central OK and the other across northeast OK. Both of these clusters will continue to surge eastward over the next several hours. Strong gusts to 80-85 mph are possible with these storms. There is also a low-probability tornado risk with these clusters. Additional thunderstorms are ongoing across south-central KS. Large hail is currently the primary risk with these storms although there is with some potential for linear development with this activity as well. In general, the severe threat is expected to move from west to east across the region tonight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast of Chanute KS to 35 miles southeast of Chickasha OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 429...WW 430... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Preceding a large-scale trough over the West Coast, moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread central CA into the Great Basin through the afternoon. As this occurs, the surface pressure gradient will tighten across much of the West -- peripheral to surface lows evolving over the northern Great Basin and the Lower CO River Valley. ...Great Basin... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread surface temperatures in the 90s to 100 F and single-digit RH. At the same time, the deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Over portions of northwest NV and eastern NV/western UT, these hot, dry, and windy conditions over receptive fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions. ...San Joaquin Valley and adjacent areas... The tightening pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions in the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent areas during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected over any dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Preceding a large-scale trough over the West Coast, moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread central CA into the Great Basin through the afternoon. As this occurs, the surface pressure gradient will tighten across much of the West -- peripheral to surface lows evolving over the northern Great Basin and the Lower CO River Valley. ...Great Basin... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread surface temperatures in the 90s to 100 F and single-digit RH. At the same time, the deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Over portions of northwest NV and eastern NV/western UT, these hot, dry, and windy conditions over receptive fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions. ...San Joaquin Valley and adjacent areas... The tightening pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions in the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent areas during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected over any dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Preceding a large-scale trough over the West Coast, moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread central CA into the Great Basin through the afternoon. As this occurs, the surface pressure gradient will tighten across much of the West -- peripheral to surface lows evolving over the northern Great Basin and the Lower CO River Valley. ...Great Basin... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread surface temperatures in the 90s to 100 F and single-digit RH. At the same time, the deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Over portions of northwest NV and eastern NV/western UT, these hot, dry, and windy conditions over receptive fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions. ...San Joaquin Valley and adjacent areas... The tightening pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions in the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent areas during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected over any dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Preceding a large-scale trough over the West Coast, moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread central CA into the Great Basin through the afternoon. As this occurs, the surface pressure gradient will tighten across much of the West -- peripheral to surface lows evolving over the northern Great Basin and the Lower CO River Valley. ...Great Basin... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread surface temperatures in the 90s to 100 F and single-digit RH. At the same time, the deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Over portions of northwest NV and eastern NV/western UT, these hot, dry, and windy conditions over receptive fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions. ...San Joaquin Valley and adjacent areas... The tightening pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions in the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent areas during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected over any dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Preceding a large-scale trough over the West Coast, moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread central CA into the Great Basin through the afternoon. As this occurs, the surface pressure gradient will tighten across much of the West -- peripheral to surface lows evolving over the northern Great Basin and the Lower CO River Valley. ...Great Basin... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread surface temperatures in the 90s to 100 F and single-digit RH. At the same time, the deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Over portions of northwest NV and eastern NV/western UT, these hot, dry, and windy conditions over receptive fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions. ...San Joaquin Valley and adjacent areas... The tightening pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions in the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent areas during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected over any dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Preceding a large-scale trough over the West Coast, moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread central CA into the Great Basin through the afternoon. As this occurs, the surface pressure gradient will tighten across much of the West -- peripheral to surface lows evolving over the northern Great Basin and the Lower CO River Valley. ...Great Basin... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread surface temperatures in the 90s to 100 F and single-digit RH. At the same time, the deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Over portions of northwest NV and eastern NV/western UT, these hot, dry, and windy conditions over receptive fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions. ...San Joaquin Valley and adjacent areas... The tightening pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions in the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent areas during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected over any dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Preceding a large-scale trough over the West Coast, moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread central CA into the Great Basin through the afternoon. As this occurs, the surface pressure gradient will tighten across much of the West -- peripheral to surface lows evolving over the northern Great Basin and the Lower CO River Valley. ...Great Basin... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread surface temperatures in the 90s to 100 F and single-digit RH. At the same time, the deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Over portions of northwest NV and eastern NV/western UT, these hot, dry, and windy conditions over receptive fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions. ...San Joaquin Valley and adjacent areas... The tightening pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions in the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent areas during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected over any dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Preceding a large-scale trough over the West Coast, moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread central CA into the Great Basin through the afternoon. As this occurs, the surface pressure gradient will tighten across much of the West -- peripheral to surface lows evolving over the northern Great Basin and the Lower CO River Valley. ...Great Basin... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread surface temperatures in the 90s to 100 F and single-digit RH. At the same time, the deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Over portions of northwest NV and eastern NV/western UT, these hot, dry, and windy conditions over receptive fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions. ...San Joaquin Valley and adjacent areas... The tightening pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions in the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent areas during the afternoon -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected over any dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a deep midlevel low off of British Columbia, a shortwave trough and related midlevel westerly speed maximum will overspread the Pacific Northwest. As a result, dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Here, around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more