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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

MD 1337 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1337 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0544 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains and Panhandle into far southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 172244Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts will likely accompany any high-based thunderstorms that can initiate. Storm development/coverage is uncertain, though trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasingly agitated high-based cumulus developing along a dryline extending across the TX South Plains. Radar data from LBB also shows continued attempts at convective initiation within the zone of low-level ascent. If a couple storms can develop within this corridor, a deeply mixed boundary layer (characterized by an inverted-V sounding) and sufficient instability would promote severe downbursts (and possibly some severe hail) with any sustained high-based storms. Storm development/sustenance and overall coverage is somewhat uncertain, though trends are being monitored for a possible watch. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35110053 35130007 35009966 34619949 34239955 33320133 33350190 33840214 34130202 35110053 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1338 ..WEINMAN..06/17/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...AMA...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-077-095-099-125-133-173-191-205-207- 180040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD HARPER KINGMAN LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON OKC003-007-011-039-043-045-047-053-059-071-073-083-093-103-105- 113-117-119-129-147-151-153-180040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BEAVER BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT HARPER KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE NOWATA Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0430 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1338 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 429... FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1338 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the eastern OK/TX Panhandles into far northwest OK Concerning...Tornado Watch 429... Valid 172305Z - 180000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 429 continues. SUMMARY...Intensification of an ongoing discrete supercell is possible as it continues southeastward over the next couple hours -- with an associated risk of supercell tornadoes. DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell has developed over the OK Panhandle, within a localized zone of surface convergence. Strongly unstable inflow for this storm and large streamwise vorticity (250-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) will support the intensification of this storm as it tracks southeastward over the next couple hours. If this occurs, supercell tornadoes and large hail will both be concerns. ..Weinman.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 36210108 36540117 36880094 36940061 36840023 36549987 36159998 36000034 36060075 36210108 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 1337 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1337 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0544 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains and Panhandle into far southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 172244Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts will likely accompany any high-based thunderstorms that can initiate. Storm development/coverage is uncertain, though trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasingly agitated high-based cumulus developing along a dryline extending across the TX South Plains. Radar data from LBB also shows continued attempts at convective initiation within the zone of low-level ascent. If a couple storms can develop within this corridor, a deeply mixed boundary layer (characterized by an inverted-V sounding) and sufficient instability would promote severe downbursts (and possibly some severe hail) with any sustained high-based storms. Storm development/sustenance and overall coverage is somewhat uncertain, though trends are being monitored for a possible watch. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35110053 35130007 35009966 34619949 34239955 33320133 33350190 33840214 34130202 35110053 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 23:43:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 21:22:26 GMT

Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 105 WTPZ35 KNHC 172343 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 600 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 ...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS LIKELY... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 94.6W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later tonight. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 94.6 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Wednesday. Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS LIKELY... As of 6:00 PM CST Tue Jun 17 the center of Erick was located near 12.9, -94.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

268
ABPZ20 KNHC 172320
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin a couple
of hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1338 ..WEINMAN..06/17/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...AMA...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-077-095-099-125-133-173-191-205-207- 180040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD HARPER KINGMAN LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON OKC003-007-011-039-043-045-047-053-059-071-073-083-093-103-105- 113-117-119-129-147-151-153-180040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BEAVER BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT HARPER KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE NOWATA Read more