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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern on Saturday will not change appreciably, with a seasonably deep upper trough over the West, and an amplified upper ridge over the Southeast and Ohio Valley. A lee trough and surface low will remain in place over the central/northern High Plains, with an expansive area of rich low-level moisture east of the low/trough across the Plains and upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Confidence is quite low regarding the details of severe-storm potential on Saturday, though conditional potential remains evident along the periphery of the upper ridge. An MCS that may develop late on D2/Friday may be moving across parts of the northern Great Lakes at the start of the period (and possibly posing a severe-wind threat), though it is possible that the bulk of this MCS will be in Ontario through the day. This MCS (or its remnant MCV) may move southeastward toward the lower Great Lakes and NY/PA by evening, and could pose some severe threat if it does not become displaced from the buoyancy reservoir to its southwest. Some redevelopment cannot be ruled out in the wake of the potential morning MCS into the upper Great Lakes/Midwest. Buoyancy and shear will remain favorable for organized severe storms, but confidence is low regarding coverage and location at this time. ...Northern Plains... Strong storms that develop on D2/Friday be ongoing Saturday morning across eastern MT, and could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. Guidance varies regarding instability/moisture across eastern MT later in the day, but if some diurnal destabilization can occur, then ascent related to the western trough may aid in additional strong storm development. Stronger instability will reside across the Dakotas, and the greatest relative threat for a couple supercells and/or an organized storm cluster currently appears to be across parts of ND during the afternoon and evening. However, confidence is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST... ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel low will advance eastward across the Northwest during the day, while a swath of strong deep-layer westerly flow overspreads much of the western CONUS. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin, promoting a tightening pressure gradient across the Great Basin into the Southwest. This large-scale pattern will support widespread critical fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin into the Southwest. ...Great Basin into the Southwest... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will support another day of widespread single-digit RH across the region. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, combined with the tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry fuels across much of the Great Basin into the Southwest, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected, with localized extremely critical conditions possible over terrain-favored areas. ...Southern CA into the San Joaquin Valley... Deep-layer west-northwesterly flow on the upstream-side of the midlevel low will overspread central and southern CA, where the tight regional pressure gradient will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty surface winds primarily over the interior mountains and valley -- where 15-20 percent RH is expected. These dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to wildfire spread. ..Weinman.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST... ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel low will advance eastward across the Northwest during the day, while a swath of strong deep-layer westerly flow overspreads much of the western CONUS. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin, promoting a tightening pressure gradient across the Great Basin into the Southwest. This large-scale pattern will support widespread critical fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin into the Southwest. ...Great Basin into the Southwest... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will support another day of widespread single-digit RH across the region. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, combined with the tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry fuels across much of the Great Basin into the Southwest, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected, with localized extremely critical conditions possible over terrain-favored areas. ...Southern CA into the San Joaquin Valley... Deep-layer west-northwesterly flow on the upstream-side of the midlevel low will overspread central and southern CA, where the tight regional pressure gradient will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty surface winds primarily over the interior mountains and valley -- where 15-20 percent RH is expected. These dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to wildfire spread. ..Weinman.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST... ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel low will advance eastward across the Northwest during the day, while a swath of strong deep-layer westerly flow overspreads much of the western CONUS. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin, promoting a tightening pressure gradient across the Great Basin into the Southwest. This large-scale pattern will support widespread critical fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin into the Southwest. ...Great Basin into the Southwest... Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will support another day of widespread single-digit RH across the region. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, combined with the tightening pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry fuels across much of the Great Basin into the Southwest, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected, with localized extremely critical conditions possible over terrain-favored areas. ...Southern CA into the San Joaquin Valley... Deep-layer west-northwesterly flow on the upstream-side of the midlevel low will overspread central and southern CA, where the tight regional pressure gradient will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty surface winds primarily over the interior mountains and valley -- where 15-20 percent RH is expected. These dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to wildfire spread. ..Weinman.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough moving into the western CONUS, a swath of moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread central CA into the Great Basin today. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin and separately over the Lower CO River Valley. ...Great Basin... Deep boundary-layer mixing is expected across the Great Basin during the afternoon, with surface temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100 F and RH falling into the single digits. The deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening regional pressure gradient, will contribute to an expansive area of 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). The greatest overlap of these strong surface winds and low RH is expected over northwestern NV and western UT into eastern NV and far northwestern AZ. Given dry/receptive fuels over these areas, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...San Joaquin Valley and vicinity... Hot and dry conditions will combine with 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds during the afternoon into the evening. This will promote elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to fire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Large-scale forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will favor isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of southeastern OR into central ID during the evening hours. However, current indications are that fuels are only modestly receptive to lightning-induced ignitions -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough moving into the western CONUS, a swath of moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread central CA into the Great Basin today. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin and separately over the Lower CO River Valley. ...Great Basin... Deep boundary-layer mixing is expected across the Great Basin during the afternoon, with surface temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100 F and RH falling into the single digits. The deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening regional pressure gradient, will contribute to an expansive area of 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). The greatest overlap of these strong surface winds and low RH is expected over northwestern NV and western UT into eastern NV and far northwestern AZ. Given dry/receptive fuels over these areas, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...San Joaquin Valley and vicinity... Hot and dry conditions will combine with 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds during the afternoon into the evening. This will promote elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to fire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Large-scale forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will favor isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of southeastern OR into central ID during the evening hours. However, current indications are that fuels are only modestly receptive to lightning-induced ignitions -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough moving into the western CONUS, a swath of moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread central CA into the Great Basin today. In response, surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin and separately over the Lower CO River Valley. ...Great Basin... Deep boundary-layer mixing is expected across the Great Basin during the afternoon, with surface temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100 F and RH falling into the single digits. The deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening regional pressure gradient, will contribute to an expansive area of 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). The greatest overlap of these strong surface winds and low RH is expected over northwestern NV and western UT into eastern NV and far northwestern AZ. Given dry/receptive fuels over these areas, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...San Joaquin Valley and vicinity... Hot and dry conditions will combine with 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds during the afternoon into the evening. This will promote elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to fire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Large-scale forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will favor isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of southeastern OR into central ID during the evening hours. However, current indications are that fuels are only modestly receptive to lightning-induced ignitions -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Significant severe weather is possible. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move across the Pacific Northwest on Friday, as the attendant large-scale trough begins to impinge on the central/northern Great Plains. Downstream, an upper ridge will gradually shift eastward from the southern Plains toward the lower MS Valley. A surface low will deepen across the northern High Plains, with increasing low-level moisture expected near and east of the low and trailing dryline/surface trough, and also near/north of a warm front that will extend east/northeast of the low. ...Dakotas into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Strong to extreme buoyancy will develop Friday afternoon across much of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Warming temperatures aloft will result in substantial capping across the warm sector, and coverage/location of storms within an otherwise volatile environment remains very uncertain. Most guidance suggests a mid/upper-level shortwave will emerge from the western trough and move across the northern Plains sometime during the afternoon/evening, though differences remain regarding the timing and amplitude of this shortwave. This shortwave trough could aid in isolated storm development by late afternoon/early evening, primarily near or north of the surface low and warm front. Veering wind profiles will support supercells, with a conditional threat for very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and also some tornado potential if any supercells can become surface-based. Some increase in storm coverage is expected Friday evening into the overnight, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Initial development within this regime could be supercellular, with potential for upscale growth with time. An intense MCS capable of producing significant severe gusts could evolve with time. Even if this does not occur, one or more smaller clusters may develop and track east-southeastward north of the warm front, with very large buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting a threat of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Greater severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding a sufficient coverage of supercells, and/or development of an intense MCS. ...Montana... Low-level easterly flow will support some moistening across much of MT on Friday, though guidance continues to vary regarding the magnitude of destabilization during the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching mid/upper-level trough will support scattered storm development across western MT during the afternoon, with sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization. Depending on the extent of downstream destabilization, some threat for strong to potentially severe storms may spread into parts of central/eastern MT Friday evening. Greater severe probabilities may be needed into parts of western/central MT depending on trends regarding destabilization. ...South-central High Plains... High-based convection may develop Friday afternoon across parts of CO/NM, within a very warm and well-mixed environment. While this convection should generally be disorganized, localized severe gusts could accompany this convection before it subsides during the evening. ...Lower Great Lakes... A northwesterly flow regime will become established across the lower Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. While large-scale ascent will remain rather nebulous, and destabilization is expected to be rather modest, elongated hodographs will conditionally support some storm organization. A few strong storms capable of locally gusty winds and perhaps marginal hail cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening. ..Dean.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Friday into Friday night across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Significant severe weather is possible. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move across the Pacific Northwest on Friday, as the attendant large-scale trough begins to impinge on the central/northern Great Plains. Downstream, an upper ridge will gradually shift eastward from the southern Plains toward the lower MS Valley. A surface low will deepen across the northern High Plains, with increasing low-level moisture expected near and east of the low and trailing dryline/surface trough, and also near/north of a warm front that will extend east/northeast of the low. ...Dakotas into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Strong to extreme buoyancy will develop Friday afternoon across much of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Warming temperatures aloft will result in substantial capping across the warm sector, and coverage/location of storms within an otherwise volatile environment remains very uncertain. Most guidance suggests a mid/upper-level shortwave will emerge from the western trough and move across the northern Plains sometime during the afternoon/evening, though differences remain regarding the timing and amplitude of this shortwave. This shortwave trough could aid in isolated storm development by late afternoon/early evening, primarily near or north of the surface low and warm front. Veering wind profiles will support supercells, with a conditional threat for very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and also some tornado potential if any supercells can become surface-based. Some increase in storm coverage is expected Friday evening into the overnight, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Initial development within this regime could be supercellular, with potential for upscale growth with time. An intense MCS capable of producing significant severe gusts could evolve with time. Even if this does not occur, one or more smaller clusters may develop and track east-southeastward north of the warm front, with very large buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting a threat of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Greater severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding a sufficient coverage of supercells, and/or development of an intense MCS. ...Montana... Low-level easterly flow will support some moistening across much of MT on Friday, though guidance continues to vary regarding the magnitude of destabilization during the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching mid/upper-level trough will support scattered storm development across western MT during the afternoon, with sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization. Depending on the extent of downstream destabilization, some threat for strong to potentially severe storms may spread into parts of central/eastern MT Friday evening. Greater severe probabilities may be needed into parts of western/central MT depending on trends regarding destabilization. ...South-central High Plains... High-based convection may develop Friday afternoon across parts of CO/NM, within a very warm and well-mixed environment. While this convection should generally be disorganized, localized severe gusts could accompany this convection before it subsides during the evening. ...Lower Great Lakes... A northwesterly flow regime will become established across the lower Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. While large-scale ascent will remain rather nebulous, and destabilization is expected to be rather modest, elongated hodographs will conditionally support some storm organization. A few strong storms capable of locally gusty winds and perhaps marginal hail cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening. ..Dean.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Middle Atlantic region, and to a lesser extent into the Carolinas and over portions of New England. Severe wind gusts are the primary concern. Isolated hail and wind threat is expected across the northern Plains into Minnesota, primarily during the evening/overnight. ...Eastern U.S... Seasonally strong upper trough is currently located over IL and should advance into the OH Valley by 18z as stronger 500mb flow develops across western PA/NY. With time, 50+kt flow should translate into the Middle Atlantic, coincident/just ahead of the primary synoptic front. Latest model guidance suggests modest 0-3km lapse rates will develop by mid day as the boundary layer warms ahead of the wind shift, especially from the Carolinas into Upstate NY. In fact, much of the I-95 corridor over the Middle Atlantic will warm quickly through the 80s to near 90F, effectively removing any inhibition. As a result, convection should readily develop within a very moist environment (PWs 1.75-2 inches) characterized by MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit deep west-southwesterly flow with 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. These profiles favor organized line segments and clusters, and severe wind gusts will likely be noted with the most robust activity. Convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening hours. ...Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough over southeast BC. This feature will suppress heights across southern AB/SK early in the period, and a secondary disturbance will eject across southern SK during the evening. These features are expected to encourage convective development along the cool side of a boundary that will be draped from the upper MS Valley-central ND-southern SK. Low-level warm advection should aid bouts of elevated convection, but the primary concern is with thunderstorms that evolve during the early evening. Storms that form over southeastern SK and southwestern MB will spread southeast toward a region of increasing low-level warm advection. LLJ is forecast to increase across eastern SD into southwest MN during the late evening. Elevated supercells should develop ahead of the Canadian convection as the LLJ strengthens into the upper Red River Valley. An MCS may ultimately evolve over the upper MS Valley late in the period as the LLJ shifts into southeast MN/southwestern WI. Hail and wind are the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/19/2025 Read more

228
ABPZ20 KNHC 190546
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin near the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 267 WTPZ65 KNHC 190540 TCUEP5 Hurricane Erick Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1140 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 ...ERICK STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY FOUR MAJOR HURRICANE... Satellite imagery indicates Erick has strengthened into a category four major hurricane with estimated maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/h). A special advisory will be issued around 0600 UTC in lieu of an intermediate advisory. Forecaster Kelly

Many tulip trees in southeast Ohio and central West Virginia have had fewer leaves than usual. Washington County seemed to have been most affected by tulip trees, also known as yellow poplars, having sparse leaves. The Ohio Department of Natural Resources conducted an aerial flight survey to assess the severity of defoliation. “The thinned and, in some cases, bare crowns of yellow poplars were apparent from the plane,” according to Thomas Macy, forest health program manager for the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. “The damage was patchy in nature, and not consistent across the landscape, but was consistent with the reports we’ve been receiving, and what we’ve been observing on the ground.” Athens County Independent (Ohio), June 18, 2025

Recent rainfall allowed Victoria to shift from stage III water restrictions to stage II. Under stage II restrictions, lawn watering using a sprinkler, pool filling and vehicle washing may only be done during certain hours. NewsTalk 1290 (Wichita Falls, Texas), June 18, 2025

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday... An amplified upper-level pattern will continue into Saturday, with a prominent ridge extending from the Southeast into the Midwest and Ohio Valley, and a deep trough over much of the West. Large to extreme buoyancy will again develop across parts of the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest, but the influence of the ridge will tend to suppress storm development across the warm sector. While differing in the details, some extended-range guidance suggests that an MCS (or at least its remnant MCV) that develops late on D3/Friday will move across the far northern Great Lakes and adjacent parts of Ontario on Saturday, and potentially into parts of the lower Great Lakes by Saturday evening. Should such an evolution occur, some severe threat could accompany this system, but predictability for such a scenario at this range is inherently low. Farther west, there is substantial spread in guidance regarding the magnitude of low-level moisture and instability across parts of MT and northern WY into western ND on Saturday. However, if stronger flow associated with the western trough can impinge upon favorable instability, then an organized severe threat could evolve during the afternoon and evening. ...D5/Sunday... The western trough is generally forecast to take on more of a positive tilt and eventually deamplify on Sunday, as a substantial shortwave and midlevel jet maximum eject across parts of the northern High Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will move across parts of the northern/central Plains. At this time, it appears the organized severe threat may be limited by very warm temperatures aloft and a tendency for stronger deep-layer flow to lag behind the front. Strong buoyancy may spread into parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Sunday. Some organized severe potential could develop within the instability gradient along the periphery of the ridge, though mesoscale details remain highly uncertain at this time. ...D6/Monday - D8/Wednesday... Uncertainty increases into early next week regarding evolution of the synoptic pattern, though guidance generally suggests that an upper ridge will remain prominent across parts of the eastern CONUS, while a weak upper trough will persist across parts of the West into the northern and central Plains. While some severe potential could evolve across parts of the Great Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast along the periphery of the ridge, details regarding favored days and locations remain highly uncertain. Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 18 08:45:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jun 18 08:45:01 UTC 2025.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 08:35:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 08:35:15 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180834 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 Satellite imagery indicates continued improvement in Erick’s structure, with deep convection wrapping tightly within the inner-core region. A recent AMSU microwave pass confirmed a better-organized inner core, consistent with the observed intensification trend. Although ASCAT data from several hours ago sampled about 40-kt peak winds in the northeastern quadrant, Erick has strengthened since that time. This is supported by the latest subjective Dvorak classifications of T3.5 from TAFB and T4.5 from SAB, while the objective ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS has increased to near 60 kt and continues to rise. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt for this advisory. Erick is moving northwestward at about 310/6 kt. This relatively slow forward motion has persisted for the past several hours, consistent with a weakening of the mid-level ridge to the north in response to a mid- to upper-level trough progressing eastward across the central United States. This general motion is expected to continue through landfall, which is forecast to occur early Thursday along the southern coast of Mexico. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and confidence in the overall track is relatively high. That said, small track deviations could still lead to significant changes in where and when the strongest winds and coastal impacts occur due to the oblique angle of approach. The official forecast aligns closely with the consensus of the HCCA and TVCE aids and remains near the previous NHC track. The environment ahead of Erick remains highly conducive for additional strengthening, with sea surface temperatures near 29 C, low vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture. Several dynamic regional models project Erick to reach major hurricane strength before landfall, and the Rapid Intensification (RI) guidance continues to indicate a significant chance for rapid strengthening within the next 36 hours. The NHC forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope but could still be somewhat conservative, especially if the current trend of improved structure continues today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the coast of Oaxaca and Guerrero. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 13.3N 95.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 13.9N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 15.0N 97.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0600Z 18.0N 100.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 215 FOPZ15 KNHC 180833 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 45(47) 18(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 10(10) 18(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) P MALDONADO 34 X 13(13) 78(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) P MALDONADO 50 X 1( 1) 57(58) 4(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) 35(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) P ANGEL 34 1 63(64) 5(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) P ANGEL 50 X 13(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) P ANGEL 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATULCO 34 X 26(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) HUATULCO 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATULCO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 95W 34 4 6(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/BLAKE