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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a deep midlevel low off of British Columbia, a shortwave trough and related midlevel westerly speed maximum will overspread the Pacific Northwest. As a result, dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Here, around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a deep midlevel low off of British Columbia, a shortwave trough and related midlevel westerly speed maximum will overspread the Pacific Northwest. As a result, dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Here, around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a deep midlevel low off of British Columbia, a shortwave trough and related midlevel westerly speed maximum will overspread the Pacific Northwest. As a result, dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Here, around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SE END TO 5 E TUL TO 20 E TUL TO 35 ENE TUL TO 15 NE BVO TO 20 SSW CNU TO 50 NW SGF. ..KERR..06/18/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-143-180740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON WASHINGTON KSC011-021-037-099-133-180740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE NEOSHO MOC009-011-039-057-097-109-119-145-217-180740- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CEDAR Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 05:53:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 03:22:32 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180553 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1200 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 ...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 95.1W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 95.1 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane later today. Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area later today and tonight. STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Gibbs

...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... As of 12:00 AM CST Wed Jun 18 the center of Erick was located near 13.1, -95.1 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE END TO 30 SW BVO TO 30 NW BVO TO 20 NNW CNU. ..KERR..06/18/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-180640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC001-011-019-021-037-099-125-133-205-180640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON MOC009-011-039-057-097-109-119-145-217-180640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CEDAR DADE JASPER LAWRENCE Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are expected today from parts of southern Missouri northeastward into southern lower Michigan and western Ohio. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. More isolated severe storms may develop across the southern Plains. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to move across the Mid-MS Valley and Midwest today. A swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread portions of the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes ahead of a surface front. A seasonally warm and moist airmass ahead of the front/composite outflow will support moderate destabilization. A surface low/MCV will develop northeast across central/northern IL to southern Lower MI during the afternoon into early evening. The current expectation is that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the surface low and front, with a mix of clusters and line segments. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but isolated large hail is possible. More likely, damaging gusts will be the main hazard as linear convection develops ahead of the front. Tornado potential is possible near the surface low from portions of northeast IL into northern IN/southern Lower MI where low-level shear may be maximized. However, forecast guidance varies considerable regarding this scenario, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities at this time. ...TX/OK to the Mid-South... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the region. A northeast to southwest oriented outflow boundary related to an MCS that is currently ongoing across northern OK as of 06z this morning will be draped across the Red River/southern OK vicinity into the Ozarks. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop diurnally. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but supercell wind profiles and strong instability/steep lapse rates will support isolated damaging wind and hail potential. ...Northern Plains... Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak diurnal destabilization. Increasing west/northwesterly flow with height will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization and elongated/straight hodographs are indicated in forecast soundings. Furthermore, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident. This should support isolated hail and strong gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong heating of a very moist airmass will support moderate destabilization. Deep-layer westerly flow will remain somewhat weak, but sufficient for multicell clusters. Strong gusts may accompany this activity. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/18/2025 Read more