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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more

MD 1332 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK...AND THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1332 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Areas affected...southern KS...northern OK...and the northeast TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 171827Z - 172030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected by late afternoon as supercells likely develop and intensify along/ahead of remnant outflow boundaries and a southeast-moving cold front. A watch issuance is expected, most likely tornado. DISCUSSION...A persistent arc of elevated convection has been ongoing throughout the day in the wake of an overnight MCS. This west/east-oriented broken band should begin to accelerate southeast and may take on increasingly surface-based character heading into late afternoon, as boundary layer recovery has been prominent across southern KS. A few additional storms may develop south of this activity into northern OK and the northeast TX Panhandle as MLCIN weakens over the next few hours. The ICT VWP depicts a favorable supercell wind profile near the large-scale outflow boundary. Any sustained storms ahead of the broken convective band will pose a risk for tornadoes and very large hail. Otherwise, a mix of isolated to scattered severe gusts and hail is anticipated as this round of convection shifts east-southeast into early evening. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36369868 35890004 35940079 36520098 37040000 37949896 38079845 38019755 37839681 37679582 37509546 37149526 36879525 36569560 36429599 36479653 36369868 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more