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Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Kansas Northern Oklahoma Northeast Texas Panhandle * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Kansas Northern Oklahoma Northeast Texas Panhandle * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 17 16:36:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more