Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 29 17:59:01 UTC 2025.

MD 1506 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1506 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...eastern KS and western MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291624Z - 291830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An increasing threat for severe wind gusts may develop into this afternoon with potential for an expanding cluster of south-southeast moving storms along the Kansas-Missouri border. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...An initially small cluster of storms across east-central KS has recently produced measured gusts of 47 kts at TOP and 42 kts at FOE. While deep-layer winds/shear is marginal, there is potential for thermodynamically driven cold pool propagation along a gradient of differential boundary-layer heating/MLCAPE. 12Z NSSL-MPAS runs appear to have well-handled this initial development and suggest an expanding cluster may intensify to the south-southeast. Recent HRRR runs have depicted this scenario to an extent, albeit delayed and maintaining more compact clustering into late afternoon. Given the weak background shear/forcing for ascent, confidence is below average on whether a sufficient severe wind threat will become apparent for downstream watch issuance. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39089504 38849425 38199341 37649310 37149310 36689314 36559395 36859484 37249575 37489665 37939684 38359657 39089504 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 17:39:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 15:26:40 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 653 WTPZ31 KNHC 291739 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 1200 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 ...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 100.1W ABOUT 225 MI...370 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 100.1 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early next week. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within the watch area late Monday and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 12:00 PM CST Sun Jun 29 the center of Flossie was located near 13.6, -100.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

519
ABPZ20 KNHC 291726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific
basin a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Flossie are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Flossie are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more