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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0478 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1507 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1507 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic Region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291707Z - 291930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A threat for sporadic tree damage due to thunderstorm downbursts will increase this afternoon as thunderstorms develop. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing this afternoon within a continued warm, moist, and uncapped airmass. Deep-layer shear and tropospheric flow will remain rather anemic leading to slow moving thunderstorms whose motion will be driven primarily by cold-pool interactions and terrain features. Precipitable water values across the area range from about 1.5 inches in the higher elevations of the Appalachians to about 2 inches in the Chesapeake Bay area. The combination of slow storm motions and high-precipitable water may yield isolated, water-loaded downbursts capable of producing sporadic tree damage. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a watch is not anticipated. ..Marsh.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 39557716 39777461 39357385 37917491 36937609 35937879 35018295 35338406 38547936 39557716 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0477 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0477 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more