Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LSE TO 35 WSW OSH TO 25 NE MTW. ..THOMPSON..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC015-021-023-025-027-039-043-045-047-049-065-071-103-111- 292240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALUMET COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA LAFAYETTE MANITOWOC RICHLAND SAUK LMZ543-292240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LSE TO 35 WSW OSH TO 25 NE MTW. ..THOMPSON..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC015-021-023-025-027-039-043-045-047-049-065-071-103-111- 292240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALUMET COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA LAFAYETTE MANITOWOC RICHLAND SAUK LMZ543-292240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 477 SEVERE TSTM WI LM 291830Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 477 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying along a weak cold front across Wisconsin. These storms will spread northeastward across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles southwest of Lonerock WI to 60 miles north northeast of Green Bay WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1513 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478... FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1513 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri...and far northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478... Valid 292037Z - 292200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon. Isolated wind damage should be the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop/loosely organize across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri this afternoon along the leading edge of an advancing cold pool from overnight convection. The airmass along and ahead of these storms is strongly to extremely unstable, with MUCAPE values in excess of 5000 J/kg across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with very little convective inhibition remaining. The degree of instability and loose organization should continue a severe threat through the afternoon despite the presence of meager deep-layer shear. The extreme instability, and precipitable water values near 2 inches in the vicinity of these thunderstorms should lead to continued water-loaded downdrafts and a reinforcement of the cold pool, leading to continued thunderstorm development. An isolated severe wind gust or wind damage will be possible this afternoon, especially on or near area lakes where frictional effects will be minimized. ..Marsh.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 37009649 37569652 37619597 38029590 38019464 38059457 38049405 38199404 38199350 38089350 38059303 37909306 37909321 37749320 37739314 37449318 37429306 37139308 37089290 36849290 36839277 36519279 36499461 36679463 36669501 36539500 36519531 36599532 36599579 37009579 37009649 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1512 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... FOR PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1512 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...Portions of Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477... Valid 292022Z - 292145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue this afternoon in a strongly unstable airmass. Large hail and isolated wind damage are possible with the strongest thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue along a diffuse frontal zone across Wisconsin this afternoon in response to strong diurnal heating and minimal inhibition. Despite most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg, these thunderstorms have shown little organization nor longevity -- likely owing to the weak deep-layer shear. Given the degree of instability, freezing heights are sufficiently low to support an isolated large hail threat through the afternoon, especially with the strongest thunderstorm cores. Additionally, the potential for isolated wind damage may occur with any strong thunderstorm updraft collapse. ..Marsh.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 42488934 42519060 42629069 42739104 43119119 43269107 43359120 43699125 43719091 44149091 44139030 44229028 44228970 44488970 44478980 44658977 44658922 45038918 44998896 45108894 45108859 45338868 45338840 45718837 45708807 45758806 45708781 45428783 45348783 45378769 45188772 45078758 45418736 45378676 45018697 44588736 44318743 44198743 44098749 44108761 43908763 43868816 43568816 43538842 43228840 43208897 42868899 42858936 42488934 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 20:40:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 21:27:02 GMT

MD 1511 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM
Mesoscale Discussion 1511 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...southeast CO and northeast NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292000Z - 292130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail will be possible through late afternoon across southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico. After coordination with WFO PUB, watch issuance in the near-term is unlikely, but may increase later towards the Kansas border. DISCUSSION...Several cells have formed from the Pikes Peak region southward along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Much of this region lies on the fringe of meager buoyancy with a deep, well-mixed boundary layer across the adjacent High Plains. PUB VWP data sampled slightly stronger low-level northeasterlies relative to mid-level westerlies, indicative of the modest deep-layer flow and shear environment. Nevertheless, the large surface temperature-dew point spreads will be favorable for microbursts capable of strong to severe gusts. Convection is expected to remain disorganized over the next few hours. There is signal that some uptick may occur into early evening as outflows impinge on increasingly greater buoyancy towards the KS border. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 38630494 38980467 38720418 38430412 38370334 38380309 38260286 37650284 36940287 36600286 36210318 35730460 35810497 37100483 38260499 38630494 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more