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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 05:52:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 03:27:11 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 270 WTPZ31 KNHC 300552 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 1200 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE STARTING TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 101.3W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 101.3 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (14 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within the watch area late today through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...FLOSSIE STARTING TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 AM CST Mon Jun 30 the center of Flossie was located near 14.4, -101.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300511
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin a couple of
hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Flossie are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Flossie are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

The voluntary water restrictions that were issued in May for parts of the Baltimore area have ended, according to the Baltimore City Department of Public Works. The restrictions took effect as Liberty Reservoir, one of the area’s main drinking water sources, was at an historic low. WBAL TV 11 (Baltimore, Md.), June 30, 2025 The Baltimore City Department of Public Works issued voluntary water restrictions for the city and parts of the surrounding counties of Carroll, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard. The public was asked to curb their water use and non-essential water use as the level of Liberty Reservoir, one of the primary water sources, was at its lowest in almost 20 years. WBAL TV 11 (Baltimore, Md.), May 8, 2025

WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0480 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1518 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479... FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1518 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479... Valid 300310Z - 300415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms will propagate across the central High Plains over the next several hours. Wind and hail continue to be a threat. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are gradually coalescing across the central High Plains of northwestern NE/extreme southeast WY. This activity has not yet developed a significant cold pool, but further precip expansion is possible as the northern Plains upper trough appears to be influencing this activity. As northwesterly mid-level flow strengthens across western NE, ongoing convection should continue to propagate southeast. Latest short-range model guidance, including most HREF members, suggest upscale growth into the early-morning hours, and an MCS should emerge. A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed downstream to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41980006 40719987 40140123 40850349 41590448 41810219 42520066 41980006 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 02:36:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 03:27:11 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 02:36:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 02:36:42 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 02:36:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 02:36:42 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 001 WTPZ41 KNHC 300233 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 Flossie is holding steady as a broad tropical storm. New bursts of deep convection are forming in the southern semicircle with cloud top temperatures near -80 degrees C. Earlier microwave imagery showed the circulation open to the east, indicating a possible dry air intrusion. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 31 to 45 kt, with the majority near 35 kt. Therefore, the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is expected to strengthen during the next couple of days. Warm waters, low vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture should allow for Flossie to strengthen. Rapid intensification indices are relatively high compared to climatology, and the official NHC forecast shows periods of steady-to-rapid intensification in the next two days. However, the forecast lies on the high end of the intensity guidance envelope. Beyond the peak at 48 h, Flossie should gradually encounter a dry and stable airmass and cross over cooling waters which will lead to steady weakening. The current motion is westward-northwestward at 295/7 kt. Flossie is forecast to move west-northwestward with a turn towards the northwest anticipated soon around the western edge of a subtropical ridge. The track guidance envelope shifted noticeably westward. The latest track forecast shifted to the left of the previous advisory, and lies on the right side of the envelope, closest to the HCCA corrected consensus aid. Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A shift in track to the right of the official forecast could bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep terrain. 2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for southwestern Mexico, and tropical storm warnings could be required on Monday for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 14.0N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 14.8N 102.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 16.0N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 17.2N 105.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 18.1N 106.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 19.1N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 20.0N 109.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 22.0N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 24.0N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 448 FOPZ11 KNHC 300233 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0300 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 14(30) X(30) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) 1(26) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 12(27) 1(28) X(28) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 7(17) 1(18) X(18) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 105W 34 1 28(29) 10(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 15N 105W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) MANZANILLO 34 X 7( 7) 34(41) 8(49) 3(52) X(52) X(52) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 2 19(21) 6(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 15(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 100W 34 13 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ACAPULCO 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P MALDONADO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 52(62) 6(68) X(68) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 6(29) X(29) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 22(28) 2(30) X(30) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 141 WTPZ21 KNHC 300232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0300 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 101.0W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 50SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 101.0W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 100.7W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.8N 102.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.0N 103.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.2N 105.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.1N 106.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.1N 108.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.0N 109.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N 111.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 24.0N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 101.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI