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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...Northern California and Southwestern Oregon... An approaching mid-level trough, steep low-level lapse rates and increasing mid-level moisture and instability will aid a mix of wet/dry thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of northern California, with showers and thunderstorms propagating into southern Oregon along and east of the Cascades through this evening. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights persist where new ignitions are possible atop dry fuels. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough entering California and associated stronger southerly mid-level flow will overspread the Great Basin today. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will facilitate gusty surface winds from the south of up to 25 mph across central Nevada, with sustained winds of around 15 mph. The enhanced winds along with low relative humidity will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Across the US, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north while an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. Ahead of the low, breezy southerly winds will advect monsoon moisture northward into parts of CA and OR. Dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions appear likely to support elevated fire-weather potential across the Northwest and Great Basin today. ...Northwest... Weak ascent from an approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR through tonight. Strong heating and dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment capable of occasional dry lightning strikes. Additionally, erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. The increased potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, warrants continuation of IsodryT probabilities where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. Southerly surface winds may gust to 15-20 mph through the afternoon, concurrent with widespread RH values below 15%. The presence of breezy low-level winds and the hot/dry conditions will overlap with a progressively drier and receptive fuels across NV. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential through this evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 769 FOPZ11 KNHC 301531 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 5(31) X(31) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 3(25) X(25) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 12(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 105W 34 6 9(15) 3(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) MANZANILLO 34 3 26(29) 6(35) 3(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 6 5(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 100W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 32(38) 36(74) 1(75) X(75) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 16(31) 1(32) X(32) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/NEPAUL

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 14:40:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 15:21:31 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 675 WTPZ31 KNHC 301520 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 102.6W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to east of Punta San Telmo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.6 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwest to west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENING... As of 9:00 AM CST Mon Jun 30 the center of Flossie was located near 15.6, -102.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.