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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few of the stronger storms could become severe. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday. Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few of the stronger storms could become severe. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday. Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few of the stronger storms could become severe. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday. Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

MD 1524 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1524 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Oklahoma and northern/western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301735Z - 301900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts along with some severe hail with the strongest cells. DISCUSSION...Scattered convection is developing along the eastern periphery of a remnant west-east oriented outflow boundary draped across portions of east-central Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Clear skies ahead of the boundary this morning amid a rich low-level moisture environment has led to rapid destabilization, with MLCAPE values approach 2500 J/kg. Weak flow aloft should limit storm organization, but some clustering of storms may occur with time during the afternoon as additional storms continue to develop along/near the boundary. Isolated damaging winds should be the primary threat, along with some potential for severe hail with the strongest cells. ..Karstens/Hart.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34669677 35309540 35749409 36289308 36329221 35639183 34849221 34149319 33869481 33999630 34309672 34669677 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1523 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN/SOUTHERN LOWER MI TO NORTHEAST IN AND NORTHWEST OH
Mesoscale Discussion 1523 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...eastern/southern Lower MI to northeast IN and northwest OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301646Z - 301845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms may pose a risk for localized damaging winds and small hail through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Along a weak cold front, a broken line of thunderstorms is bisecting Lower MI into far northern IN. Airmass immediately downstream has warmed into the low to mid 80s, with heating slowed farther east in the wake of an MCV over north-central/northeast OH. Moist low-levels amid weak mid/upper-level rates, combined with generally weak to modest low/mid-level shear, should serve to mitigate the overall severe threat. Small hail production is possible with some speed shear in the upper portion of the buoyancy profile. Locally strong gusts in wet microbursts should be the main hazard, but that will likely be modulated by the sub-optimal thermodynamic environment. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 42898235 41418339 40958489 41128589 41538595 42998463 44028407 44798361 44928319 44408262 42898235 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1522 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
Mesoscale Discussion 1522 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic States Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301607Z - 301800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds from sporadic strong gusts along with small hail will be possible with slow-moving, scattered thunderstorms through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convective development is increasing across western PA, downstream of an eastward-moving MCV over central OH, and along the lee of the central Appalachians across eastern WV. Overall thermodynamic environment appears fairly ubiquitous, outside of the higher terrain, with surface temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s. 12Z soundings sampled poor mid to upper lapse rates and nearly saturated profiles east of the Appalachians, with somewhat drier and not quite as poor lapse rates across the Upper OH Valley. This combined with modest deep-layer shear will probably modulate a potentially greater downburst threat. It may be that some degree of loose clustering will be necessary for strong gust production capable of more than localized tree damage. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 40547955 41557969 41817851 41707687 41427589 40507540 39887554 39047642 38477775 38437845 38517898 38907937 39827936 40547955 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

Nantucket’s annual Fourth of July water fight between the Nantucket Fire Department and the Boynton Lane Reserves will not be held this year due to continuing drought on the island. The annual tradition always involves the public as they get in on the water fight too. Nantucket Current (Mass.), June 30, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 17:43:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 15:21:28 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301742 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 1200 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 103.1W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to east of Punta San Telmo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.1 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwest to west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (145 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 12:00 PM CST Mon Jun 30 the center of Flossie was located near 15.9, -103.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin a couple of
hundred miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. and a mid-level low meanders over CA tomorrow (Tuesday). The East Coast mid-level trough will encourage the eastward advancement of a cold front, which will provide enough lift for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development across the Carolinas into the Northeast. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will encourage enough buoyancy, amid marginal but adequate vertical wind shear, to support strong thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible along the periphery of the upper ridge over parts of the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Northeast into the Southeast... As the surface cold front advances eastward across the eastern U.S., surface temperatures will warm into the 80s F to near 90 F, amid 70+ F dewpoints from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3500 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating. Relatively poor mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE to tall/thin profiles. However, the magnitude of buoyancy, combined with widespread thunderstorm coverage over a large area, will foster ample opportunity for at least isolated damaging gusts with wet downbursts, from the Southeast to New England. A more concentrated area of damaging gust potential exists over parts of the Mid_Atlantic, where a Category 2/Slight Risk remains in place. Here, line segments are expected to organize amid a region of maximum buoyancy and 30 kts of effective bulk shear, driven by stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow grazing the area. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Mid-level monsoonal moisture is forecast to crest the upper ridge amid modest 500 mb west-southwesterly flow over parts of the Northern Rockies, where guidance consensus shows PWATs reaching 0.8 inches in spots. High-based thunderstorms will develop by afternoon peak heating, atop a well-mixed boundary layer extending to 500 mb via inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. The aforementioned mid-level moisture, combined with steep tropospheric lapse rates, will support over 500 J/kg MLCAPE. This buoyancy may support robust enough updrafts and subsequent storm cores in an environment where ample evaporative cooling may take place to support isolated severe gusts. ...Central High Plains... Low-level upslope flow, along with strong diurnal heating, and the passage of a small impulse embedded in the upper ridge, will all serve as mechanisms for convective initiation tomorrow afternoon. Though storms should be isolated, they will develop amid 8 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates that will boost MLCAPE into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Modest directional vertical wind shear will support somewhat curved/elongated hodographs and around 35 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, a few multicells/transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe wind/hail. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. and a mid-level low meanders over CA tomorrow (Tuesday). The East Coast mid-level trough will encourage the eastward advancement of a cold front, which will provide enough lift for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development across the Carolinas into the Northeast. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will encourage enough buoyancy, amid marginal but adequate vertical wind shear, to support strong thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible along the periphery of the upper ridge over parts of the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Northeast into the Southeast... As the surface cold front advances eastward across the eastern U.S., surface temperatures will warm into the 80s F to near 90 F, amid 70+ F dewpoints from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3500 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating. Relatively poor mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE to tall/thin profiles. However, the magnitude of buoyancy, combined with widespread thunderstorm coverage over a large area, will foster ample opportunity for at least isolated damaging gusts with wet downbursts, from the Southeast to New England. A more concentrated area of damaging gust potential exists over parts of the Mid_Atlantic, where a Category 2/Slight Risk remains in place. Here, line segments are expected to organize amid a region of maximum buoyancy and 30 kts of effective bulk shear, driven by stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow grazing the area. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Mid-level monsoonal moisture is forecast to crest the upper ridge amid modest 500 mb west-southwesterly flow over parts of the Northern Rockies, where guidance consensus shows PWATs reaching 0.8 inches in spots. High-based thunderstorms will develop by afternoon peak heating, atop a well-mixed boundary layer extending to 500 mb via inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. The aforementioned mid-level moisture, combined with steep tropospheric lapse rates, will support over 500 J/kg MLCAPE. This buoyancy may support robust enough updrafts and subsequent storm cores in an environment where ample evaporative cooling may take place to support isolated severe gusts. ...Central High Plains... Low-level upslope flow, along with strong diurnal heating, and the passage of a small impulse embedded in the upper ridge, will all serve as mechanisms for convective initiation tomorrow afternoon. Though storms should be isolated, they will develop amid 8 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates that will boost MLCAPE into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Modest directional vertical wind shear will support somewhat curved/elongated hodographs and around 35 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, a few multicells/transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe wind/hail. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. and a mid-level low meanders over CA tomorrow (Tuesday). The East Coast mid-level trough will encourage the eastward advancement of a cold front, which will provide enough lift for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development across the Carolinas into the Northeast. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will encourage enough buoyancy, amid marginal but adequate vertical wind shear, to support strong thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible along the periphery of the upper ridge over parts of the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Northeast into the Southeast... As the surface cold front advances eastward across the eastern U.S., surface temperatures will warm into the 80s F to near 90 F, amid 70+ F dewpoints from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3500 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating. Relatively poor mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE to tall/thin profiles. However, the magnitude of buoyancy, combined with widespread thunderstorm coverage over a large area, will foster ample opportunity for at least isolated damaging gusts with wet downbursts, from the Southeast to New England. A more concentrated area of damaging gust potential exists over parts of the Mid_Atlantic, where a Category 2/Slight Risk remains in place. Here, line segments are expected to organize amid a region of maximum buoyancy and 30 kts of effective bulk shear, driven by stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow grazing the area. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Mid-level monsoonal moisture is forecast to crest the upper ridge amid modest 500 mb west-southwesterly flow over parts of the Northern Rockies, where guidance consensus shows PWATs reaching 0.8 inches in spots. High-based thunderstorms will develop by afternoon peak heating, atop a well-mixed boundary layer extending to 500 mb via inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. The aforementioned mid-level moisture, combined with steep tropospheric lapse rates, will support over 500 J/kg MLCAPE. This buoyancy may support robust enough updrafts and subsequent storm cores in an environment where ample evaporative cooling may take place to support isolated severe gusts. ...Central High Plains... Low-level upslope flow, along with strong diurnal heating, and the passage of a small impulse embedded in the upper ridge, will all serve as mechanisms for convective initiation tomorrow afternoon. Though storms should be isolated, they will develop amid 8 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates that will boost MLCAPE into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Modest directional vertical wind shear will support somewhat curved/elongated hodographs and around 35 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, a few multicells/transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe wind/hail. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. and a mid-level low meanders over CA tomorrow (Tuesday). The East Coast mid-level trough will encourage the eastward advancement of a cold front, which will provide enough lift for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development across the Carolinas into the Northeast. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will encourage enough buoyancy, amid marginal but adequate vertical wind shear, to support strong thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible along the periphery of the upper ridge over parts of the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Northeast into the Southeast... As the surface cold front advances eastward across the eastern U.S., surface temperatures will warm into the 80s F to near 90 F, amid 70+ F dewpoints from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3500 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating. Relatively poor mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE to tall/thin profiles. However, the magnitude of buoyancy, combined with widespread thunderstorm coverage over a large area, will foster ample opportunity for at least isolated damaging gusts with wet downbursts, from the Southeast to New England. A more concentrated area of damaging gust potential exists over parts of the Mid_Atlantic, where a Category 2/Slight Risk remains in place. Here, line segments are expected to organize amid a region of maximum buoyancy and 30 kts of effective bulk shear, driven by stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow grazing the area. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Mid-level monsoonal moisture is forecast to crest the upper ridge amid modest 500 mb west-southwesterly flow over parts of the Northern Rockies, where guidance consensus shows PWATs reaching 0.8 inches in spots. High-based thunderstorms will develop by afternoon peak heating, atop a well-mixed boundary layer extending to 500 mb via inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. The aforementioned mid-level moisture, combined with steep tropospheric lapse rates, will support over 500 J/kg MLCAPE. This buoyancy may support robust enough updrafts and subsequent storm cores in an environment where ample evaporative cooling may take place to support isolated severe gusts. ...Central High Plains... Low-level upslope flow, along with strong diurnal heating, and the passage of a small impulse embedded in the upper ridge, will all serve as mechanisms for convective initiation tomorrow afternoon. Though storms should be isolated, they will develop amid 8 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates that will boost MLCAPE into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Modest directional vertical wind shear will support somewhat curved/elongated hodographs and around 35 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, a few multicells/transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe wind/hail. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. and a mid-level low meanders over CA tomorrow (Tuesday). The East Coast mid-level trough will encourage the eastward advancement of a cold front, which will provide enough lift for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development across the Carolinas into the Northeast. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will encourage enough buoyancy, amid marginal but adequate vertical wind shear, to support strong thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible along the periphery of the upper ridge over parts of the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Northeast into the Southeast... As the surface cold front advances eastward across the eastern U.S., surface temperatures will warm into the 80s F to near 90 F, amid 70+ F dewpoints from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3500 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating. Relatively poor mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE to tall/thin profiles. However, the magnitude of buoyancy, combined with widespread thunderstorm coverage over a large area, will foster ample opportunity for at least isolated damaging gusts with wet downbursts, from the Southeast to New England. A more concentrated area of damaging gust potential exists over parts of the Mid_Atlantic, where a Category 2/Slight Risk remains in place. Here, line segments are expected to organize amid a region of maximum buoyancy and 30 kts of effective bulk shear, driven by stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow grazing the area. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Mid-level monsoonal moisture is forecast to crest the upper ridge amid modest 500 mb west-southwesterly flow over parts of the Northern Rockies, where guidance consensus shows PWATs reaching 0.8 inches in spots. High-based thunderstorms will develop by afternoon peak heating, atop a well-mixed boundary layer extending to 500 mb via inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. The aforementioned mid-level moisture, combined with steep tropospheric lapse rates, will support over 500 J/kg MLCAPE. This buoyancy may support robust enough updrafts and subsequent storm cores in an environment where ample evaporative cooling may take place to support isolated severe gusts. ...Central High Plains... Low-level upslope flow, along with strong diurnal heating, and the passage of a small impulse embedded in the upper ridge, will all serve as mechanisms for convective initiation tomorrow afternoon. Though storms should be isolated, they will develop amid 8 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates that will boost MLCAPE into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Modest directional vertical wind shear will support somewhat curved/elongated hodographs and around 35 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, a few multicells/transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe wind/hail. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. and a mid-level low meanders over CA tomorrow (Tuesday). The East Coast mid-level trough will encourage the eastward advancement of a cold front, which will provide enough lift for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development across the Carolinas into the Northeast. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will encourage enough buoyancy, amid marginal but adequate vertical wind shear, to support strong thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible along the periphery of the upper ridge over parts of the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Northeast into the Southeast... As the surface cold front advances eastward across the eastern U.S., surface temperatures will warm into the 80s F to near 90 F, amid 70+ F dewpoints from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3500 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating. Relatively poor mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE to tall/thin profiles. However, the magnitude of buoyancy, combined with widespread thunderstorm coverage over a large area, will foster ample opportunity for at least isolated damaging gusts with wet downbursts, from the Southeast to New England. A more concentrated area of damaging gust potential exists over parts of the Mid_Atlantic, where a Category 2/Slight Risk remains in place. Here, line segments are expected to organize amid a region of maximum buoyancy and 30 kts of effective bulk shear, driven by stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow grazing the area. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Mid-level monsoonal moisture is forecast to crest the upper ridge amid modest 500 mb west-southwesterly flow over parts of the Northern Rockies, where guidance consensus shows PWATs reaching 0.8 inches in spots. High-based thunderstorms will develop by afternoon peak heating, atop a well-mixed boundary layer extending to 500 mb via inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. The aforementioned mid-level moisture, combined with steep tropospheric lapse rates, will support over 500 J/kg MLCAPE. This buoyancy may support robust enough updrafts and subsequent storm cores in an environment where ample evaporative cooling may take place to support isolated severe gusts. ...Central High Plains... Low-level upslope flow, along with strong diurnal heating, and the passage of a small impulse embedded in the upper ridge, will all serve as mechanisms for convective initiation tomorrow afternoon. Though storms should be isolated, they will develop amid 8 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates that will boost MLCAPE into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Modest directional vertical wind shear will support somewhat curved/elongated hodographs and around 35 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, a few multicells/transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe wind/hail. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. and a mid-level low meanders over CA tomorrow (Tuesday). The East Coast mid-level trough will encourage the eastward advancement of a cold front, which will provide enough lift for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development across the Carolinas into the Northeast. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will encourage enough buoyancy, amid marginal but adequate vertical wind shear, to support strong thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible along the periphery of the upper ridge over parts of the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Northeast into the Southeast... As the surface cold front advances eastward across the eastern U.S., surface temperatures will warm into the 80s F to near 90 F, amid 70+ F dewpoints from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3500 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating. Relatively poor mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE to tall/thin profiles. However, the magnitude of buoyancy, combined with widespread thunderstorm coverage over a large area, will foster ample opportunity for at least isolated damaging gusts with wet downbursts, from the Southeast to New England. A more concentrated area of damaging gust potential exists over parts of the Mid_Atlantic, where a Category 2/Slight Risk remains in place. Here, line segments are expected to organize amid a region of maximum buoyancy and 30 kts of effective bulk shear, driven by stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow grazing the area. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Mid-level monsoonal moisture is forecast to crest the upper ridge amid modest 500 mb west-southwesterly flow over parts of the Northern Rockies, where guidance consensus shows PWATs reaching 0.8 inches in spots. High-based thunderstorms will develop by afternoon peak heating, atop a well-mixed boundary layer extending to 500 mb via inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. The aforementioned mid-level moisture, combined with steep tropospheric lapse rates, will support over 500 J/kg MLCAPE. This buoyancy may support robust enough updrafts and subsequent storm cores in an environment where ample evaporative cooling may take place to support isolated severe gusts. ...Central High Plains... Low-level upslope flow, along with strong diurnal heating, and the passage of a small impulse embedded in the upper ridge, will all serve as mechanisms for convective initiation tomorrow afternoon. Though storms should be isolated, they will develop amid 8 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates that will boost MLCAPE into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Modest directional vertical wind shear will support somewhat curved/elongated hodographs and around 35 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, a few multicells/transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe wind/hail. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. and a mid-level low meanders over CA tomorrow (Tuesday). The East Coast mid-level trough will encourage the eastward advancement of a cold front, which will provide enough lift for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development across the Carolinas into the Northeast. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will encourage enough buoyancy, amid marginal but adequate vertical wind shear, to support strong thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible along the periphery of the upper ridge over parts of the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Northeast into the Southeast... As the surface cold front advances eastward across the eastern U.S., surface temperatures will warm into the 80s F to near 90 F, amid 70+ F dewpoints from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3500 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating. Relatively poor mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE to tall/thin profiles. However, the magnitude of buoyancy, combined with widespread thunderstorm coverage over a large area, will foster ample opportunity for at least isolated damaging gusts with wet downbursts, from the Southeast to New England. A more concentrated area of damaging gust potential exists over parts of the Mid_Atlantic, where a Category 2/Slight Risk remains in place. Here, line segments are expected to organize amid a region of maximum buoyancy and 30 kts of effective bulk shear, driven by stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow grazing the area. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Mid-level monsoonal moisture is forecast to crest the upper ridge amid modest 500 mb west-southwesterly flow over parts of the Northern Rockies, where guidance consensus shows PWATs reaching 0.8 inches in spots. High-based thunderstorms will develop by afternoon peak heating, atop a well-mixed boundary layer extending to 500 mb via inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. The aforementioned mid-level moisture, combined with steep tropospheric lapse rates, will support over 500 J/kg MLCAPE. This buoyancy may support robust enough updrafts and subsequent storm cores in an environment where ample evaporative cooling may take place to support isolated severe gusts. ...Central High Plains... Low-level upslope flow, along with strong diurnal heating, and the passage of a small impulse embedded in the upper ridge, will all serve as mechanisms for convective initiation tomorrow afternoon. Though storms should be isolated, they will develop amid 8 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates that will boost MLCAPE into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Modest directional vertical wind shear will support somewhat curved/elongated hodographs and around 35 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, a few multicells/transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe wind/hail. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. and a mid-level low meanders over CA tomorrow (Tuesday). The East Coast mid-level trough will encourage the eastward advancement of a cold front, which will provide enough lift for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development across the Carolinas into the Northeast. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will encourage enough buoyancy, amid marginal but adequate vertical wind shear, to support strong thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible along the periphery of the upper ridge over parts of the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Northeast into the Southeast... As the surface cold front advances eastward across the eastern U.S., surface temperatures will warm into the 80s F to near 90 F, amid 70+ F dewpoints from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3500 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating. Relatively poor mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE to tall/thin profiles. However, the magnitude of buoyancy, combined with widespread thunderstorm coverage over a large area, will foster ample opportunity for at least isolated damaging gusts with wet downbursts, from the Southeast to New England. A more concentrated area of damaging gust potential exists over parts of the Mid_Atlantic, where a Category 2/Slight Risk remains in place. Here, line segments are expected to organize amid a region of maximum buoyancy and 30 kts of effective bulk shear, driven by stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow grazing the area. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Mid-level monsoonal moisture is forecast to crest the upper ridge amid modest 500 mb west-southwesterly flow over parts of the Northern Rockies, where guidance consensus shows PWATs reaching 0.8 inches in spots. High-based thunderstorms will develop by afternoon peak heating, atop a well-mixed boundary layer extending to 500 mb via inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. The aforementioned mid-level moisture, combined with steep tropospheric lapse rates, will support over 500 J/kg MLCAPE. This buoyancy may support robust enough updrafts and subsequent storm cores in an environment where ample evaporative cooling may take place to support isolated severe gusts. ...Central High Plains... Low-level upslope flow, along with strong diurnal heating, and the passage of a small impulse embedded in the upper ridge, will all serve as mechanisms for convective initiation tomorrow afternoon. Though storms should be isolated, they will develop amid 8 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates that will boost MLCAPE into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Modest directional vertical wind shear will support somewhat curved/elongated hodographs and around 35 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, a few multicells/transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe wind/hail. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more