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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA... ...Synopsis... An amplified upper trough slowly progressing eastward across central California will be responsible for supporting mixed dry/wet thunderstorms across portions of northern California into southern Oregon, critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southern and central Nevada, and for pushing enough monsoonal moisture into portions of Arizona, Utah, and southeastern Idaho to support lightning over dry fuels. ...Central/Southern Nevada... Deep boundary layer mixing below strong meridional mid-level flow will result in dry and windy conditions that overlap with fuels receptive to wildfire spread (ERCs at or exceeding the 90th annual percentile). Relative humidity of 5-10% coupled with 25 MPH winds, possibly gusting to 30 MPH, are anticipated across portions of central and southern Nevada -- warranting the introduction of Critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of northern California into southern and eastern Oregon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within deep inverted-v boundary-layer profiles with total precipitable water content between 0.5 - 0.75 in, and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds of 15-20 MPH. With ERC percentiles climbing to the 70th-80th annual percentiles, lightning over dry fuels with little wetting precipitation will pose a fire-weather risk. Further east across portions of northern Arizona, western/central Utah, and far southeastern Idaho, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected. ERC fuel percentiles are more significant across this region, ranging from the 90th annual percentiles to exceeding the 98th annual percentiles across large portions of the region. With total precipitable water vapor content forecast between 0.5 and 0.8 inches resulting in lower precipitation efficiency, dry lightning ignitions will be possible. ..Halbert.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OREGON TO NORTHERN MONTANA AND FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A ridge centered across the northern Plains will drift slowly east through the period. To the east of this ridge, a mid-level trough and associated jet streak will dig into the Great Lakes. To the west of this ridge, several embedded shortwave troughs are forecast within moderate southwesterly flow. ...Eastern Oregon to northern Montana and far northwest North Dakota... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast within a zone of steep low/mid-level lapse rates from eastern Oregon into much of Montana. Effective shear of 25 to 30 knots will support some storm maintenance/organization including the potential for multicell clusters. A hot and well-mixed boundary layer featuring 40-50F dewpoint depressions will support some threat for isolated severe wind gusts from this activity. However, weak instability should limit a greater severe weather threat. ...Upper Midwest across Lake Michigan and much of central/northern Lower Michigan... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across eastern South Dakota/western Iowa on the nose of the low-level jet. This activity should weaken during the morning. Weak to moderate instability is forecast do develop during the afternoon from the Upper Midwest to northern/central Lower Michigan. A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward across this region Wednesday afternoon. As this occurs, isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are possible. 35 to 40 knots of mid-level flow may support some storm organization, including the potential for transient supercells. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ..Bentley.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OREGON TO NORTHERN MONTANA AND FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A ridge centered across the northern Plains will drift slowly east through the period. To the east of this ridge, a mid-level trough and associated jet streak will dig into the Great Lakes. To the west of this ridge, several embedded shortwave troughs are forecast within moderate southwesterly flow. ...Eastern Oregon to northern Montana and far northwest North Dakota... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast within a zone of steep low/mid-level lapse rates from eastern Oregon into much of Montana. Effective shear of 25 to 30 knots will support some storm maintenance/organization including the potential for multicell clusters. A hot and well-mixed boundary layer featuring 40-50F dewpoint depressions will support some threat for isolated severe wind gusts from this activity. However, weak instability should limit a greater severe weather threat. ...Upper Midwest across Lake Michigan and much of central/northern Lower Michigan... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across eastern South Dakota/western Iowa on the nose of the low-level jet. This activity should weaken during the morning. Weak to moderate instability is forecast do develop during the afternoon from the Upper Midwest to northern/central Lower Michigan. A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward across this region Wednesday afternoon. As this occurs, isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are possible. 35 to 40 knots of mid-level flow may support some storm organization, including the potential for transient supercells. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ..Bentley.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OREGON TO NORTHERN MONTANA AND FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A ridge centered across the northern Plains will drift slowly east through the period. To the east of this ridge, a mid-level trough and associated jet streak will dig into the Great Lakes. To the west of this ridge, several embedded shortwave troughs are forecast within moderate southwesterly flow. ...Eastern Oregon to northern Montana and far northwest North Dakota... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast within a zone of steep low/mid-level lapse rates from eastern Oregon into much of Montana. Effective shear of 25 to 30 knots will support some storm maintenance/organization including the potential for multicell clusters. A hot and well-mixed boundary layer featuring 40-50F dewpoint depressions will support some threat for isolated severe wind gusts from this activity. However, weak instability should limit a greater severe weather threat. ...Upper Midwest across Lake Michigan and much of central/northern Lower Michigan... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across eastern South Dakota/western Iowa on the nose of the low-level jet. This activity should weaken during the morning. Weak to moderate instability is forecast do develop during the afternoon from the Upper Midwest to northern/central Lower Michigan. A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward across this region Wednesday afternoon. As this occurs, isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are possible. 35 to 40 knots of mid-level flow may support some storm organization, including the potential for transient supercells. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ..Bentley.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OREGON TO NORTHERN MONTANA AND FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A ridge centered across the northern Plains will drift slowly east through the period. To the east of this ridge, a mid-level trough and associated jet streak will dig into the Great Lakes. To the west of this ridge, several embedded shortwave troughs are forecast within moderate southwesterly flow. ...Eastern Oregon to northern Montana and far northwest North Dakota... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast within a zone of steep low/mid-level lapse rates from eastern Oregon into much of Montana. Effective shear of 25 to 30 knots will support some storm maintenance/organization including the potential for multicell clusters. A hot and well-mixed boundary layer featuring 40-50F dewpoint depressions will support some threat for isolated severe wind gusts from this activity. However, weak instability should limit a greater severe weather threat. ...Upper Midwest across Lake Michigan and much of central/northern Lower Michigan... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across eastern South Dakota/western Iowa on the nose of the low-level jet. This activity should weaken during the morning. Weak to moderate instability is forecast do develop during the afternoon from the Upper Midwest to northern/central Lower Michigan. A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward across this region Wednesday afternoon. As this occurs, isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are possible. 35 to 40 knots of mid-level flow may support some storm organization, including the potential for transient supercells. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ..Bentley.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OREGON TO NORTHERN MONTANA AND FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A ridge centered across the northern Plains will drift slowly east through the period. To the east of this ridge, a mid-level trough and associated jet streak will dig into the Great Lakes. To the west of this ridge, several embedded shortwave troughs are forecast within moderate southwesterly flow. ...Eastern Oregon to northern Montana and far northwest North Dakota... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast within a zone of steep low/mid-level lapse rates from eastern Oregon into much of Montana. Effective shear of 25 to 30 knots will support some storm maintenance/organization including the potential for multicell clusters. A hot and well-mixed boundary layer featuring 40-50F dewpoint depressions will support some threat for isolated severe wind gusts from this activity. However, weak instability should limit a greater severe weather threat. ...Upper Midwest across Lake Michigan and much of central/northern Lower Michigan... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across eastern South Dakota/western Iowa on the nose of the low-level jet. This activity should weaken during the morning. Weak to moderate instability is forecast do develop during the afternoon from the Upper Midwest to northern/central Lower Michigan. A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward across this region Wednesday afternoon. As this occurs, isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are possible. 35 to 40 knots of mid-level flow may support some storm organization, including the potential for transient supercells. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ..Bentley.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the High Plains. ...Middle Atlantic... Upper trough currently located over the upper Great Lakes, extending into central MO, is forecast to shift into the OH Valley by late afternoon before advancing across the northern/central Appalachians by the end of the period. At the surface, a cold front will progress into the upper OH Valley early in the period and this will serve as the focus for scattered thunderstorms by mid day. Early this morning, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak low-amplitude short-wave trough is embedded within the base of the larger trough along the IL/IN border. Radar data supports this with a few clusters of thunderstorms extending from western IN into western TN. Current speed/movement of this feature would place this short wave into southern OH/eastern KY by 18z. While low-level lapse rates are not forecast to be that steep across the Middle Atlantic, modest southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to adequate shear, supporting organized line segments/clusters. Current thinking is scattered thunderstorms will readily develop ahead of this feature, and a marked increase in convection should be noted into the mid afternoon across southern PA into northern VA. Latest HREF guidance supports this scenario, and forecast soundings favor damaging winds with convection that develops within a high-PW air mass, despite marginal lapse rates/instability. Strong-severe convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening. ...High Plains... A weak short-wave trough appears to be topping the Rockies ridge over eastern ID/southern MT early this morning. This feature will begin to dig southeast toward the Black Hills, eventually migrating into the lower MO Valley by the end of the period. As a result, a weak lee trough should extend across eastern WY during the late afternoon and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of western SD into the NE Panhandle/northeast CO. Some consideration was given to a SLGT Risk across this region but activity may prove too sparse to warrant higher severe probabilities. Even so, wind profiles suggest a few slow-moving supercells could develop. With LLJ expected to strengthen across this region after sunset, this would favor a few longer-lived storms. If it appears coverage will be a bit more expansive then currently forecast, a SLGT Risk may be warranted. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the High Plains. ...Middle Atlantic... Upper trough currently located over the upper Great Lakes, extending into central MO, is forecast to shift into the OH Valley by late afternoon before advancing across the northern/central Appalachians by the end of the period. At the surface, a cold front will progress into the upper OH Valley early in the period and this will serve as the focus for scattered thunderstorms by mid day. Early this morning, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak low-amplitude short-wave trough is embedded within the base of the larger trough along the IL/IN border. Radar data supports this with a few clusters of thunderstorms extending from western IN into western TN. Current speed/movement of this feature would place this short wave into southern OH/eastern KY by 18z. While low-level lapse rates are not forecast to be that steep across the Middle Atlantic, modest southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to adequate shear, supporting organized line segments/clusters. Current thinking is scattered thunderstorms will readily develop ahead of this feature, and a marked increase in convection should be noted into the mid afternoon across southern PA into northern VA. Latest HREF guidance supports this scenario, and forecast soundings favor damaging winds with convection that develops within a high-PW air mass, despite marginal lapse rates/instability. Strong-severe convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening. ...High Plains... A weak short-wave trough appears to be topping the Rockies ridge over eastern ID/southern MT early this morning. This feature will begin to dig southeast toward the Black Hills, eventually migrating into the lower MO Valley by the end of the period. As a result, a weak lee trough should extend across eastern WY during the late afternoon and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of western SD into the NE Panhandle/northeast CO. Some consideration was given to a SLGT Risk across this region but activity may prove too sparse to warrant higher severe probabilities. Even so, wind profiles suggest a few slow-moving supercells could develop. With LLJ expected to strengthen across this region after sunset, this would favor a few longer-lived storms. If it appears coverage will be a bit more expansive then currently forecast, a SLGT Risk may be warranted. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the High Plains. ...Middle Atlantic... Upper trough currently located over the upper Great Lakes, extending into central MO, is forecast to shift into the OH Valley by late afternoon before advancing across the northern/central Appalachians by the end of the period. At the surface, a cold front will progress into the upper OH Valley early in the period and this will serve as the focus for scattered thunderstorms by mid day. Early this morning, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak low-amplitude short-wave trough is embedded within the base of the larger trough along the IL/IN border. Radar data supports this with a few clusters of thunderstorms extending from western IN into western TN. Current speed/movement of this feature would place this short wave into southern OH/eastern KY by 18z. While low-level lapse rates are not forecast to be that steep across the Middle Atlantic, modest southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to adequate shear, supporting organized line segments/clusters. Current thinking is scattered thunderstorms will readily develop ahead of this feature, and a marked increase in convection should be noted into the mid afternoon across southern PA into northern VA. Latest HREF guidance supports this scenario, and forecast soundings favor damaging winds with convection that develops within a high-PW air mass, despite marginal lapse rates/instability. Strong-severe convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening. ...High Plains... A weak short-wave trough appears to be topping the Rockies ridge over eastern ID/southern MT early this morning. This feature will begin to dig southeast toward the Black Hills, eventually migrating into the lower MO Valley by the end of the period. As a result, a weak lee trough should extend across eastern WY during the late afternoon and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of western SD into the NE Panhandle/northeast CO. Some consideration was given to a SLGT Risk across this region but activity may prove too sparse to warrant higher severe probabilities. Even so, wind profiles suggest a few slow-moving supercells could develop. With LLJ expected to strengthen across this region after sunset, this would favor a few longer-lived storms. If it appears coverage will be a bit more expansive then currently forecast, a SLGT Risk may be warranted. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the High Plains. ...Middle Atlantic... Upper trough currently located over the upper Great Lakes, extending into central MO, is forecast to shift into the OH Valley by late afternoon before advancing across the northern/central Appalachians by the end of the period. At the surface, a cold front will progress into the upper OH Valley early in the period and this will serve as the focus for scattered thunderstorms by mid day. Early this morning, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak low-amplitude short-wave trough is embedded within the base of the larger trough along the IL/IN border. Radar data supports this with a few clusters of thunderstorms extending from western IN into western TN. Current speed/movement of this feature would place this short wave into southern OH/eastern KY by 18z. While low-level lapse rates are not forecast to be that steep across the Middle Atlantic, modest southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to adequate shear, supporting organized line segments/clusters. Current thinking is scattered thunderstorms will readily develop ahead of this feature, and a marked increase in convection should be noted into the mid afternoon across southern PA into northern VA. Latest HREF guidance supports this scenario, and forecast soundings favor damaging winds with convection that develops within a high-PW air mass, despite marginal lapse rates/instability. Strong-severe convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening. ...High Plains... A weak short-wave trough appears to be topping the Rockies ridge over eastern ID/southern MT early this morning. This feature will begin to dig southeast toward the Black Hills, eventually migrating into the lower MO Valley by the end of the period. As a result, a weak lee trough should extend across eastern WY during the late afternoon and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of western SD into the NE Panhandle/northeast CO. Some consideration was given to a SLGT Risk across this region but activity may prove too sparse to warrant higher severe probabilities. Even so, wind profiles suggest a few slow-moving supercells could develop. With LLJ expected to strengthen across this region after sunset, this would favor a few longer-lived storms. If it appears coverage will be a bit more expansive then currently forecast, a SLGT Risk may be warranted. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the High Plains. ...Middle Atlantic... Upper trough currently located over the upper Great Lakes, extending into central MO, is forecast to shift into the OH Valley by late afternoon before advancing across the northern/central Appalachians by the end of the period. At the surface, a cold front will progress into the upper OH Valley early in the period and this will serve as the focus for scattered thunderstorms by mid day. Early this morning, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak low-amplitude short-wave trough is embedded within the base of the larger trough along the IL/IN border. Radar data supports this with a few clusters of thunderstorms extending from western IN into western TN. Current speed/movement of this feature would place this short wave into southern OH/eastern KY by 18z. While low-level lapse rates are not forecast to be that steep across the Middle Atlantic, modest southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to adequate shear, supporting organized line segments/clusters. Current thinking is scattered thunderstorms will readily develop ahead of this feature, and a marked increase in convection should be noted into the mid afternoon across southern PA into northern VA. Latest HREF guidance supports this scenario, and forecast soundings favor damaging winds with convection that develops within a high-PW air mass, despite marginal lapse rates/instability. Strong-severe convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening. ...High Plains... A weak short-wave trough appears to be topping the Rockies ridge over eastern ID/southern MT early this morning. This feature will begin to dig southeast toward the Black Hills, eventually migrating into the lower MO Valley by the end of the period. As a result, a weak lee trough should extend across eastern WY during the late afternoon and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of western SD into the NE Panhandle/northeast CO. Some consideration was given to a SLGT Risk across this region but activity may prove too sparse to warrant higher severe probabilities. Even so, wind profiles suggest a few slow-moving supercells could develop. With LLJ expected to strengthen across this region after sunset, this would favor a few longer-lived storms. If it appears coverage will be a bit more expansive then currently forecast, a SLGT Risk may be warranted. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the High Plains. ...Middle Atlantic... Upper trough currently located over the upper Great Lakes, extending into central MO, is forecast to shift into the OH Valley by late afternoon before advancing across the northern/central Appalachians by the end of the period. At the surface, a cold front will progress into the upper OH Valley early in the period and this will serve as the focus for scattered thunderstorms by mid day. Early this morning, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak low-amplitude short-wave trough is embedded within the base of the larger trough along the IL/IN border. Radar data supports this with a few clusters of thunderstorms extending from western IN into western TN. Current speed/movement of this feature would place this short wave into southern OH/eastern KY by 18z. While low-level lapse rates are not forecast to be that steep across the Middle Atlantic, modest southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to adequate shear, supporting organized line segments/clusters. Current thinking is scattered thunderstorms will readily develop ahead of this feature, and a marked increase in convection should be noted into the mid afternoon across southern PA into northern VA. Latest HREF guidance supports this scenario, and forecast soundings favor damaging winds with convection that develops within a high-PW air mass, despite marginal lapse rates/instability. Strong-severe convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening. ...High Plains... A weak short-wave trough appears to be topping the Rockies ridge over eastern ID/southern MT early this morning. This feature will begin to dig southeast toward the Black Hills, eventually migrating into the lower MO Valley by the end of the period. As a result, a weak lee trough should extend across eastern WY during the late afternoon and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of western SD into the NE Panhandle/northeast CO. Some consideration was given to a SLGT Risk across this region but activity may prove too sparse to warrant higher severe probabilities. Even so, wind profiles suggest a few slow-moving supercells could develop. With LLJ expected to strengthen across this region after sunset, this would favor a few longer-lived storms. If it appears coverage will be a bit more expansive then currently forecast, a SLGT Risk may be warranted. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 07/01/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 05:46:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:21:44 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 009 WTPZ31 KNHC 010544 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 1200 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 104.7W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.7 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, with a gradual slowing in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, with weakening starting by late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, overnight through this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO... As of 12:00 AM CST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 16.5, -104.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

310
ABPZ20 KNHC 010516
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin around 150 miles
offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Fire restrictions in the Northeast Oregon District took effect on Wednesday, July 2. The Northeast Oregon District includes Union, Baker, Wallowa, and Umatilla counties along with small portions of Malheur, Morrow, and Grant counties. The aim of the fire restrictions was to lower the threat of human-caused fires. Baker City Herald (Ore.), July 1, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:12:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:12:22 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:12:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:12:22 GMT