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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while tracking toward New England, with an upper ridge poised to build over the central U.S. as another mid-level trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Widespread, rich low-level moisture will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. However, the best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Here, low-level moisture and instability will best overlap with modest mid-level westerly flow along the periphery of the upper ridge, where some vertical wind shear will be present to encourage storm organization. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Through the day, surface heating will support mixing of a dry boundary layer, which may deepen to 500 mb in spots. Tropospheric lapse rates will steepen to around 9 C/km, boosting SBCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range. High-based thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating. Modest mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge will overspread the dry boundary layer, resulting in elongated, straight hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicell structures or perhaps a transient supercell will be the likely storm modes. Given the dry boundary layer, the stronger storm cores may produce a few severe gusts. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during the afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. A belt of stronger northwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Great Lakes as the eastern trough deepens in the 18-00Z time frame, contributing to vertical speed shear and elongated, straight hodographs. Over 30 kts of unidirectional effective bulk shear will support multicells capable of producing a few instances of severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while tracking toward New England, with an upper ridge poised to build over the central U.S. as another mid-level trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Widespread, rich low-level moisture will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. However, the best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Here, low-level moisture and instability will best overlap with modest mid-level westerly flow along the periphery of the upper ridge, where some vertical wind shear will be present to encourage storm organization. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Through the day, surface heating will support mixing of a dry boundary layer, which may deepen to 500 mb in spots. Tropospheric lapse rates will steepen to around 9 C/km, boosting SBCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range. High-based thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating. Modest mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge will overspread the dry boundary layer, resulting in elongated, straight hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicell structures or perhaps a transient supercell will be the likely storm modes. Given the dry boundary layer, the stronger storm cores may produce a few severe gusts. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during the afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. A belt of stronger northwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Great Lakes as the eastern trough deepens in the 18-00Z time frame, contributing to vertical speed shear and elongated, straight hodographs. Over 30 kts of unidirectional effective bulk shear will support multicells capable of producing a few instances of severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while tracking toward New England, with an upper ridge poised to build over the central U.S. as another mid-level trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Widespread, rich low-level moisture will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. However, the best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Here, low-level moisture and instability will best overlap with modest mid-level westerly flow along the periphery of the upper ridge, where some vertical wind shear will be present to encourage storm organization. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Through the day, surface heating will support mixing of a dry boundary layer, which may deepen to 500 mb in spots. Tropospheric lapse rates will steepen to around 9 C/km, boosting SBCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range. High-based thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating. Modest mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge will overspread the dry boundary layer, resulting in elongated, straight hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicell structures or perhaps a transient supercell will be the likely storm modes. Given the dry boundary layer, the stronger storm cores may produce a few severe gusts. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during the afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. A belt of stronger northwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Great Lakes as the eastern trough deepens in the 18-00Z time frame, contributing to vertical speed shear and elongated, straight hodographs. Over 30 kts of unidirectional effective bulk shear will support multicells capable of producing a few instances of severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while tracking toward New England, with an upper ridge poised to build over the central U.S. as another mid-level trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Widespread, rich low-level moisture will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. However, the best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Here, low-level moisture and instability will best overlap with modest mid-level westerly flow along the periphery of the upper ridge, where some vertical wind shear will be present to encourage storm organization. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Through the day, surface heating will support mixing of a dry boundary layer, which may deepen to 500 mb in spots. Tropospheric lapse rates will steepen to around 9 C/km, boosting SBCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range. High-based thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating. Modest mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge will overspread the dry boundary layer, resulting in elongated, straight hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicell structures or perhaps a transient supercell will be the likely storm modes. Given the dry boundary layer, the stronger storm cores may produce a few severe gusts. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during the afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. A belt of stronger northwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Great Lakes as the eastern trough deepens in the 18-00Z time frame, contributing to vertical speed shear and elongated, straight hodographs. Over 30 kts of unidirectional effective bulk shear will support multicells capable of producing a few instances of severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while tracking toward New England, with an upper ridge poised to build over the central U.S. as another mid-level trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Widespread, rich low-level moisture will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. However, the best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Here, low-level moisture and instability will best overlap with modest mid-level westerly flow along the periphery of the upper ridge, where some vertical wind shear will be present to encourage storm organization. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Through the day, surface heating will support mixing of a dry boundary layer, which may deepen to 500 mb in spots. Tropospheric lapse rates will steepen to around 9 C/km, boosting SBCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range. High-based thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating. Modest mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge will overspread the dry boundary layer, resulting in elongated, straight hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicell structures or perhaps a transient supercell will be the likely storm modes. Given the dry boundary layer, the stronger storm cores may produce a few severe gusts. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during the afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. A belt of stronger northwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Great Lakes as the eastern trough deepens in the 18-00Z time frame, contributing to vertical speed shear and elongated, straight hodographs. Over 30 kts of unidirectional effective bulk shear will support multicells capable of producing a few instances of severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while tracking toward New England, with an upper ridge poised to build over the central U.S. as another mid-level trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Widespread, rich low-level moisture will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. However, the best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Here, low-level moisture and instability will best overlap with modest mid-level westerly flow along the periphery of the upper ridge, where some vertical wind shear will be present to encourage storm organization. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Through the day, surface heating will support mixing of a dry boundary layer, which may deepen to 500 mb in spots. Tropospheric lapse rates will steepen to around 9 C/km, boosting SBCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range. High-based thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating. Modest mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge will overspread the dry boundary layer, resulting in elongated, straight hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicell structures or perhaps a transient supercell will be the likely storm modes. Given the dry boundary layer, the stronger storm cores may produce a few severe gusts. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during the afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. A belt of stronger northwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Great Lakes as the eastern trough deepens in the 18-00Z time frame, contributing to vertical speed shear and elongated, straight hodographs. Over 30 kts of unidirectional effective bulk shear will support multicells capable of producing a few instances of severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while tracking toward New England, with an upper ridge poised to build over the central U.S. as another mid-level trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Widespread, rich low-level moisture will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. However, the best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Here, low-level moisture and instability will best overlap with modest mid-level westerly flow along the periphery of the upper ridge, where some vertical wind shear will be present to encourage storm organization. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Through the day, surface heating will support mixing of a dry boundary layer, which may deepen to 500 mb in spots. Tropospheric lapse rates will steepen to around 9 C/km, boosting SBCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range. High-based thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating. Modest mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge will overspread the dry boundary layer, resulting in elongated, straight hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicell structures or perhaps a transient supercell will be the likely storm modes. Given the dry boundary layer, the stronger storm cores may produce a few severe gusts. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during the afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. A belt of stronger northwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Great Lakes as the eastern trough deepens in the 18-00Z time frame, contributing to vertical speed shear and elongated, straight hodographs. Over 30 kts of unidirectional effective bulk shear will support multicells capable of producing a few instances of severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while tracking toward New England, with an upper ridge poised to build over the central U.S. as another mid-level trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Widespread, rich low-level moisture will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. However, the best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Here, low-level moisture and instability will best overlap with modest mid-level westerly flow along the periphery of the upper ridge, where some vertical wind shear will be present to encourage storm organization. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Through the day, surface heating will support mixing of a dry boundary layer, which may deepen to 500 mb in spots. Tropospheric lapse rates will steepen to around 9 C/km, boosting SBCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range. High-based thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating. Modest mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge will overspread the dry boundary layer, resulting in elongated, straight hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicell structures or perhaps a transient supercell will be the likely storm modes. Given the dry boundary layer, the stronger storm cores may produce a few severe gusts. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during the afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. A belt of stronger northwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Great Lakes as the eastern trough deepens in the 18-00Z time frame, contributing to vertical speed shear and elongated, straight hodographs. Over 30 kts of unidirectional effective bulk shear will support multicells capable of producing a few instances of severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while tracking toward New England, with an upper ridge poised to build over the central U.S. as another mid-level trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Widespread, rich low-level moisture will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. However, the best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Here, low-level moisture and instability will best overlap with modest mid-level westerly flow along the periphery of the upper ridge, where some vertical wind shear will be present to encourage storm organization. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Through the day, surface heating will support mixing of a dry boundary layer, which may deepen to 500 mb in spots. Tropospheric lapse rates will steepen to around 9 C/km, boosting SBCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range. High-based thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating. Modest mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge will overspread the dry boundary layer, resulting in elongated, straight hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicell structures or perhaps a transient supercell will be the likely storm modes. Given the dry boundary layer, the stronger storm cores may produce a few severe gusts. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during the afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. A belt of stronger northwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Great Lakes as the eastern trough deepens in the 18-00Z time frame, contributing to vertical speed shear and elongated, straight hodographs. Over 30 kts of unidirectional effective bulk shear will support multicells capable of producing a few instances of severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while tracking toward New England, with an upper ridge poised to build over the central U.S. as another mid-level trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Widespread, rich low-level moisture will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. However, the best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Here, low-level moisture and instability will best overlap with modest mid-level westerly flow along the periphery of the upper ridge, where some vertical wind shear will be present to encourage storm organization. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Through the day, surface heating will support mixing of a dry boundary layer, which may deepen to 500 mb in spots. Tropospheric lapse rates will steepen to around 9 C/km, boosting SBCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range. High-based thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating. Modest mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge will overspread the dry boundary layer, resulting in elongated, straight hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicell structures or perhaps a transient supercell will be the likely storm modes. Given the dry boundary layer, the stronger storm cores may produce a few severe gusts. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during the afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. A belt of stronger northwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Great Lakes as the eastern trough deepens in the 18-00Z time frame, contributing to vertical speed shear and elongated, straight hodographs. Over 30 kts of unidirectional effective bulk shear will support multicells capable of producing a few instances of severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while tracking toward New England, with an upper ridge poised to build over the central U.S. as another mid-level trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Widespread, rich low-level moisture will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. However, the best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Here, low-level moisture and instability will best overlap with modest mid-level westerly flow along the periphery of the upper ridge, where some vertical wind shear will be present to encourage storm organization. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Through the day, surface heating will support mixing of a dry boundary layer, which may deepen to 500 mb in spots. Tropospheric lapse rates will steepen to around 9 C/km, boosting SBCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range. High-based thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating. Modest mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge will overspread the dry boundary layer, resulting in elongated, straight hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicell structures or perhaps a transient supercell will be the likely storm modes. Given the dry boundary layer, the stronger storm cores may produce a few severe gusts. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during the afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. A belt of stronger northwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Great Lakes as the eastern trough deepens in the 18-00Z time frame, contributing to vertical speed shear and elongated, straight hodographs. Over 30 kts of unidirectional effective bulk shear will support multicells capable of producing a few instances of severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while tracking toward New England, with an upper ridge poised to build over the central U.S. as another mid-level trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Widespread, rich low-level moisture will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. However, the best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Here, low-level moisture and instability will best overlap with modest mid-level westerly flow along the periphery of the upper ridge, where some vertical wind shear will be present to encourage storm organization. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Through the day, surface heating will support mixing of a dry boundary layer, which may deepen to 500 mb in spots. Tropospheric lapse rates will steepen to around 9 C/km, boosting SBCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range. High-based thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating. Modest mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge will overspread the dry boundary layer, resulting in elongated, straight hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicell structures or perhaps a transient supercell will be the likely storm modes. Given the dry boundary layer, the stronger storm cores may produce a few severe gusts. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during the afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. A belt of stronger northwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Great Lakes as the eastern trough deepens in the 18-00Z time frame, contributing to vertical speed shear and elongated, straight hodographs. Over 30 kts of unidirectional effective bulk shear will support multicells capable of producing a few instances of severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while tracking toward New England, with an upper ridge poised to build over the central U.S. as another mid-level trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Widespread, rich low-level moisture will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. However, the best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Here, low-level moisture and instability will best overlap with modest mid-level westerly flow along the periphery of the upper ridge, where some vertical wind shear will be present to encourage storm organization. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Through the day, surface heating will support mixing of a dry boundary layer, which may deepen to 500 mb in spots. Tropospheric lapse rates will steepen to around 9 C/km, boosting SBCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range. High-based thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating. Modest mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge will overspread the dry boundary layer, resulting in elongated, straight hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicell structures or perhaps a transient supercell will be the likely storm modes. Given the dry boundary layer, the stronger storm cores may produce a few severe gusts. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during the afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. A belt of stronger northwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Great Lakes as the eastern trough deepens in the 18-00Z time frame, contributing to vertical speed shear and elongated, straight hodographs. Over 30 kts of unidirectional effective bulk shear will support multicells capable of producing a few instances of severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while tracking toward New England, with an upper ridge poised to build over the central U.S. as another mid-level trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Widespread, rich low-level moisture will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. However, the best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Here, low-level moisture and instability will best overlap with modest mid-level westerly flow along the periphery of the upper ridge, where some vertical wind shear will be present to encourage storm organization. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Through the day, surface heating will support mixing of a dry boundary layer, which may deepen to 500 mb in spots. Tropospheric lapse rates will steepen to around 9 C/km, boosting SBCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range. High-based thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating. Modest mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge will overspread the dry boundary layer, resulting in elongated, straight hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicell structures or perhaps a transient supercell will be the likely storm modes. Given the dry boundary layer, the stronger storm cores may produce a few severe gusts. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during the afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. A belt of stronger northwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Great Lakes as the eastern trough deepens in the 18-00Z time frame, contributing to vertical speed shear and elongated, straight hodographs. Over 30 kts of unidirectional effective bulk shear will support multicells capable of producing a few instances of severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0481 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA... ...Northern California... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was extended farther south along the California coastal range with thunderstorm development expected just north of Napa Valley this afternoon. Similarly, thermodynamic profiles over the northern Sierra suggests convective development just north of Lake Tahoe later today, moving into northeastern California and southern Oregon through the afternoon and evening hours. ...Southern/Central Nevada... Critical fire weather conditions with sustained southerly winds of 15-20 mph and daytime relative humidity of 10-15% amid dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential across central and southern Nevada today. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track with additional high-based showers and thunderstorms with potential lightning ignitions amid receptive fuels over the higher terrain of northwest Arizona, central Utah into the Upper Snake River Plain and far southwest Wyoming. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified upper trough slowly progressing eastward across central California will be responsible for supporting mixed dry/wet thunderstorms across portions of northern California into southern Oregon, critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southern and central Nevada, and for pushing enough monsoonal moisture into portions of Arizona, Utah, and southeastern Idaho to support lightning over dry fuels. ...Central/Southern Nevada... Deep boundary layer mixing below strong meridional mid-level flow will result in dry and windy conditions that overlap with fuels receptive to wildfire spread (ERCs at or exceeding the 90th annual percentile). Relative humidity of 5-10% coupled with 25 MPH winds, possibly gusting to 30 MPH, are anticipated across portions of central and southern Nevada -- warranting the introduction of Critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of northern California into southern and eastern Oregon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within deep inverted-v boundary-layer profiles with total precipitable water content between 0.5 - 0.75 in, and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds of 15-20 MPH. With ERC percentiles climbing to the 70th-80th annual percentiles, lightning over dry fuels with little wetting precipitation will pose a fire-weather risk. Further east across portions of northern Arizona, western/central Utah, and far southeastern Idaho, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected. ERC fuel percentiles are more significant across this region, ranging from the 90th annual percentiles to exceeding the 98th annual percentiles across large portions of the region. With total precipitable water vapor content forecast between 0.5 and 0.8 inches resulting in lower precipitation efficiency, dry lightning ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA... ...Northern California... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was extended farther south along the California coastal range with thunderstorm development expected just north of Napa Valley this afternoon. Similarly, thermodynamic profiles over the northern Sierra suggests convective development just north of Lake Tahoe later today, moving into northeastern California and southern Oregon through the afternoon and evening hours. ...Southern/Central Nevada... Critical fire weather conditions with sustained southerly winds of 15-20 mph and daytime relative humidity of 10-15% amid dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential across central and southern Nevada today. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track with additional high-based showers and thunderstorms with potential lightning ignitions amid receptive fuels over the higher terrain of northwest Arizona, central Utah into the Upper Snake River Plain and far southwest Wyoming. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified upper trough slowly progressing eastward across central California will be responsible for supporting mixed dry/wet thunderstorms across portions of northern California into southern Oregon, critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southern and central Nevada, and for pushing enough monsoonal moisture into portions of Arizona, Utah, and southeastern Idaho to support lightning over dry fuels. ...Central/Southern Nevada... Deep boundary layer mixing below strong meridional mid-level flow will result in dry and windy conditions that overlap with fuels receptive to wildfire spread (ERCs at or exceeding the 90th annual percentile). Relative humidity of 5-10% coupled with 25 MPH winds, possibly gusting to 30 MPH, are anticipated across portions of central and southern Nevada -- warranting the introduction of Critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of northern California into southern and eastern Oregon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within deep inverted-v boundary-layer profiles with total precipitable water content between 0.5 - 0.75 in, and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds of 15-20 MPH. With ERC percentiles climbing to the 70th-80th annual percentiles, lightning over dry fuels with little wetting precipitation will pose a fire-weather risk. Further east across portions of northern Arizona, western/central Utah, and far southeastern Idaho, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected. ERC fuel percentiles are more significant across this region, ranging from the 90th annual percentiles to exceeding the 98th annual percentiles across large portions of the region. With total precipitable water vapor content forecast between 0.5 and 0.8 inches resulting in lower precipitation efficiency, dry lightning ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA... ...Northern California... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was extended farther south along the California coastal range with thunderstorm development expected just north of Napa Valley this afternoon. Similarly, thermodynamic profiles over the northern Sierra suggests convective development just north of Lake Tahoe later today, moving into northeastern California and southern Oregon through the afternoon and evening hours. ...Southern/Central Nevada... Critical fire weather conditions with sustained southerly winds of 15-20 mph and daytime relative humidity of 10-15% amid dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential across central and southern Nevada today. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track with additional high-based showers and thunderstorms with potential lightning ignitions amid receptive fuels over the higher terrain of northwest Arizona, central Utah into the Upper Snake River Plain and far southwest Wyoming. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified upper trough slowly progressing eastward across central California will be responsible for supporting mixed dry/wet thunderstorms across portions of northern California into southern Oregon, critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southern and central Nevada, and for pushing enough monsoonal moisture into portions of Arizona, Utah, and southeastern Idaho to support lightning over dry fuels. ...Central/Southern Nevada... Deep boundary layer mixing below strong meridional mid-level flow will result in dry and windy conditions that overlap with fuels receptive to wildfire spread (ERCs at or exceeding the 90th annual percentile). Relative humidity of 5-10% coupled with 25 MPH winds, possibly gusting to 30 MPH, are anticipated across portions of central and southern Nevada -- warranting the introduction of Critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of northern California into southern and eastern Oregon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within deep inverted-v boundary-layer profiles with total precipitable water content between 0.5 - 0.75 in, and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds of 15-20 MPH. With ERC percentiles climbing to the 70th-80th annual percentiles, lightning over dry fuels with little wetting precipitation will pose a fire-weather risk. Further east across portions of northern Arizona, western/central Utah, and far southeastern Idaho, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected. ERC fuel percentiles are more significant across this region, ranging from the 90th annual percentiles to exceeding the 98th annual percentiles across large portions of the region. With total precipitable water vapor content forecast between 0.5 and 0.8 inches resulting in lower precipitation efficiency, dry lightning ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA... ...Northern California... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was extended farther south along the California coastal range with thunderstorm development expected just north of Napa Valley this afternoon. Similarly, thermodynamic profiles over the northern Sierra suggests convective development just north of Lake Tahoe later today, moving into northeastern California and southern Oregon through the afternoon and evening hours. ...Southern/Central Nevada... Critical fire weather conditions with sustained southerly winds of 15-20 mph and daytime relative humidity of 10-15% amid dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential across central and southern Nevada today. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track with additional high-based showers and thunderstorms with potential lightning ignitions amid receptive fuels over the higher terrain of northwest Arizona, central Utah into the Upper Snake River Plain and far southwest Wyoming. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified upper trough slowly progressing eastward across central California will be responsible for supporting mixed dry/wet thunderstorms across portions of northern California into southern Oregon, critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southern and central Nevada, and for pushing enough monsoonal moisture into portions of Arizona, Utah, and southeastern Idaho to support lightning over dry fuels. ...Central/Southern Nevada... Deep boundary layer mixing below strong meridional mid-level flow will result in dry and windy conditions that overlap with fuels receptive to wildfire spread (ERCs at or exceeding the 90th annual percentile). Relative humidity of 5-10% coupled with 25 MPH winds, possibly gusting to 30 MPH, are anticipated across portions of central and southern Nevada -- warranting the introduction of Critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of northern California into southern and eastern Oregon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within deep inverted-v boundary-layer profiles with total precipitable water content between 0.5 - 0.75 in, and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds of 15-20 MPH. With ERC percentiles climbing to the 70th-80th annual percentiles, lightning over dry fuels with little wetting precipitation will pose a fire-weather risk. Further east across portions of northern Arizona, western/central Utah, and far southeastern Idaho, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected. ERC fuel percentiles are more significant across this region, ranging from the 90th annual percentiles to exceeding the 98th annual percentiles across large portions of the region. With total precipitable water vapor content forecast between 0.5 and 0.8 inches resulting in lower precipitation efficiency, dry lightning ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA... ...Northern California... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was extended farther south along the California coastal range with thunderstorm development expected just north of Napa Valley this afternoon. Similarly, thermodynamic profiles over the northern Sierra suggests convective development just north of Lake Tahoe later today, moving into northeastern California and southern Oregon through the afternoon and evening hours. ...Southern/Central Nevada... Critical fire weather conditions with sustained southerly winds of 15-20 mph and daytime relative humidity of 10-15% amid dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential across central and southern Nevada today. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track with additional high-based showers and thunderstorms with potential lightning ignitions amid receptive fuels over the higher terrain of northwest Arizona, central Utah into the Upper Snake River Plain and far southwest Wyoming. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified upper trough slowly progressing eastward across central California will be responsible for supporting mixed dry/wet thunderstorms across portions of northern California into southern Oregon, critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southern and central Nevada, and for pushing enough monsoonal moisture into portions of Arizona, Utah, and southeastern Idaho to support lightning over dry fuels. ...Central/Southern Nevada... Deep boundary layer mixing below strong meridional mid-level flow will result in dry and windy conditions that overlap with fuels receptive to wildfire spread (ERCs at or exceeding the 90th annual percentile). Relative humidity of 5-10% coupled with 25 MPH winds, possibly gusting to 30 MPH, are anticipated across portions of central and southern Nevada -- warranting the introduction of Critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of northern California into southern and eastern Oregon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within deep inverted-v boundary-layer profiles with total precipitable water content between 0.5 - 0.75 in, and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds of 15-20 MPH. With ERC percentiles climbing to the 70th-80th annual percentiles, lightning over dry fuels with little wetting precipitation will pose a fire-weather risk. Further east across portions of northern Arizona, western/central Utah, and far southeastern Idaho, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected. ERC fuel percentiles are more significant across this region, ranging from the 90th annual percentiles to exceeding the 98th annual percentiles across large portions of the region. With total precipitable water vapor content forecast between 0.5 and 0.8 inches resulting in lower precipitation efficiency, dry lightning ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more