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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 08:49:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 08:49:38 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 08:49:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 08:49:38 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 05:46:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:21:44 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010847 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 Flossie continues to strengthen early this morning, evident by an expanding central dense overcast (CDO) over the low-level center of the cyclone. A couple recent scatterometer passes at 0337z and 0428z helped in locating the center underneath the CDO, and assisted with the refinement of the 34 and 50 knot wind radii. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in at T4.0/65 knots from both SAB and TAFB. The objective intensity estimates ranged from 69 to 79 knots at 06z. Based on a blend of these estimates, and taking into account the improved satellite presentation during the past few hours, the initial intensity has been raised to 75 knots for this advisory. Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This motion is expected to continue during the next several days with a slight decrease in forward speed, as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the northwest of the system. The track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and is closely aligned with a blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus aids as well as the latest EC-AIFS run. The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of 28/29C, abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear. The latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 40 percent chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official forecast reflects this. Rapid weakening will then begin by 48 hours as Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins to entrain dry mid-level air. The system is forecast to become a post-tropical low by 72 hours and a remnant low at 96 hours. The intensity forecast is on the high end of the intensity aids, closest to SHIPS and NNIC. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 16.9N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 17.5N 106.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 18.4N 107.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 20.0N 110.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 20.9N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 21.9N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/0600Z 23.7N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 24.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Jelsema

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 547 FOPZ11 KNHC 010844 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P VALLARTA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 1 6( 7) 57(64) 25(89) 3(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 33(55) 5(60) X(60) X(60) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 25(29) 20(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 178 WTPZ31 KNHC 010844 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 105.1W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 105.1 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, with a slight decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Flossie should move farther away from southwestern Mexico today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, with weakening starting by late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, through this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 16.9, -105.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 526 WTPZ21 KNHC 010843 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....105NE 90SE 60SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.4N 107.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.0N 110.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.9N 111.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.9N 112.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.7N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 105.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will shift east across the central CONUS with a strong and amplifying trough across the Northeast. To the west of the ridge axis, moderate southwesterly flow is forecast from the Northwest into the northern Rockies with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. At the surface, a cold front will move quickly east across the Northeast during the afternoon/evening on Thursday. In addition, a lee cyclone will develop across the western Dakotas. A warm front will extend east from this low pressure center and a dryline/surface trough extending to its south. ...Northeast... Moderate instability is forecast to develop on Thursday afternoon ahead of a cold front across the Northeast. Cooling mid-level temperatures, associated with the deepening mid-level trough, will steepen lapse rates through the day. In addition, a moderately strong mid-level jet streak will overspread the warm sector with 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow. A more concentrated severe weather threat may occur beneath this mid-level jet streak if moderate instability can develop where shear would be maximized. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop north of the surface low across the western Dakotas. Weak isentropic ascent and height falls in an uncapped environment may support some strong storms Thursday afternoon/evening across far eastern Montana into the western Dakotas. The primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat will be shear with only 20 to 25 knots forecast. However, this may be sufficient for a few multicell clusters capable of isolated severe wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will shift east across the central CONUS with a strong and amplifying trough across the Northeast. To the west of the ridge axis, moderate southwesterly flow is forecast from the Northwest into the northern Rockies with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. At the surface, a cold front will move quickly east across the Northeast during the afternoon/evening on Thursday. In addition, a lee cyclone will develop across the western Dakotas. A warm front will extend east from this low pressure center and a dryline/surface trough extending to its south. ...Northeast... Moderate instability is forecast to develop on Thursday afternoon ahead of a cold front across the Northeast. Cooling mid-level temperatures, associated with the deepening mid-level trough, will steepen lapse rates through the day. In addition, a moderately strong mid-level jet streak will overspread the warm sector with 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow. A more concentrated severe weather threat may occur beneath this mid-level jet streak if moderate instability can develop where shear would be maximized. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop north of the surface low across the western Dakotas. Weak isentropic ascent and height falls in an uncapped environment may support some strong storms Thursday afternoon/evening across far eastern Montana into the western Dakotas. The primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat will be shear with only 20 to 25 knots forecast. However, this may be sufficient for a few multicell clusters capable of isolated severe wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will shift east across the central CONUS with a strong and amplifying trough across the Northeast. To the west of the ridge axis, moderate southwesterly flow is forecast from the Northwest into the northern Rockies with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. At the surface, a cold front will move quickly east across the Northeast during the afternoon/evening on Thursday. In addition, a lee cyclone will develop across the western Dakotas. A warm front will extend east from this low pressure center and a dryline/surface trough extending to its south. ...Northeast... Moderate instability is forecast to develop on Thursday afternoon ahead of a cold front across the Northeast. Cooling mid-level temperatures, associated with the deepening mid-level trough, will steepen lapse rates through the day. In addition, a moderately strong mid-level jet streak will overspread the warm sector with 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow. A more concentrated severe weather threat may occur beneath this mid-level jet streak if moderate instability can develop where shear would be maximized. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop north of the surface low across the western Dakotas. Weak isentropic ascent and height falls in an uncapped environment may support some strong storms Thursday afternoon/evening across far eastern Montana into the western Dakotas. The primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat will be shear with only 20 to 25 knots forecast. However, this may be sufficient for a few multicell clusters capable of isolated severe wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will shift east across the central CONUS with a strong and amplifying trough across the Northeast. To the west of the ridge axis, moderate southwesterly flow is forecast from the Northwest into the northern Rockies with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. At the surface, a cold front will move quickly east across the Northeast during the afternoon/evening on Thursday. In addition, a lee cyclone will develop across the western Dakotas. A warm front will extend east from this low pressure center and a dryline/surface trough extending to its south. ...Northeast... Moderate instability is forecast to develop on Thursday afternoon ahead of a cold front across the Northeast. Cooling mid-level temperatures, associated with the deepening mid-level trough, will steepen lapse rates through the day. In addition, a moderately strong mid-level jet streak will overspread the warm sector with 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow. A more concentrated severe weather threat may occur beneath this mid-level jet streak if moderate instability can develop where shear would be maximized. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop north of the surface low across the western Dakotas. Weak isentropic ascent and height falls in an uncapped environment may support some strong storms Thursday afternoon/evening across far eastern Montana into the western Dakotas. The primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat will be shear with only 20 to 25 knots forecast. However, this may be sufficient for a few multicell clusters capable of isolated severe wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough slowly progressing across portions of central California will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough located further north over British Columbia will provide support for dry/windy conditions across northern Oregon into southern Washington. ...Dry/Windy... Modest mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow, coupled with deep mixing of dry boundary layer profiles, will support at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of northern Oregon into southern Washington. The strongest winds will be confined to portions of the Cascade gaps/Columbia Gorge, with ERCs across the region nearing or meeting the annual 90th percentiles. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible from east-central Nevada into western Utah, and portions of far southeast Idaho into far western Wyoming. Fuels across significant portions of the Great Basin exceed the 98th annual percentiles, and a combination of low to modest total precipitable water vapor content and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds ranging from 15 - 25 MPH will result in low precipitation efficiency with thunderstorm updrafts. This will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. ..Halbert.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough slowly progressing across portions of central California will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough located further north over British Columbia will provide support for dry/windy conditions across northern Oregon into southern Washington. ...Dry/Windy... Modest mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow, coupled with deep mixing of dry boundary layer profiles, will support at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of northern Oregon into southern Washington. The strongest winds will be confined to portions of the Cascade gaps/Columbia Gorge, with ERCs across the region nearing or meeting the annual 90th percentiles. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible from east-central Nevada into western Utah, and portions of far southeast Idaho into far western Wyoming. Fuels across significant portions of the Great Basin exceed the 98th annual percentiles, and a combination of low to modest total precipitable water vapor content and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds ranging from 15 - 25 MPH will result in low precipitation efficiency with thunderstorm updrafts. This will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. ..Halbert.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough slowly progressing across portions of central California will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough located further north over British Columbia will provide support for dry/windy conditions across northern Oregon into southern Washington. ...Dry/Windy... Modest mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow, coupled with deep mixing of dry boundary layer profiles, will support at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of northern Oregon into southern Washington. The strongest winds will be confined to portions of the Cascade gaps/Columbia Gorge, with ERCs across the region nearing or meeting the annual 90th percentiles. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible from east-central Nevada into western Utah, and portions of far southeast Idaho into far western Wyoming. Fuels across significant portions of the Great Basin exceed the 98th annual percentiles, and a combination of low to modest total precipitable water vapor content and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds ranging from 15 - 25 MPH will result in low precipitation efficiency with thunderstorm updrafts. This will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. ..Halbert.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough slowly progressing across portions of central California will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough located further north over British Columbia will provide support for dry/windy conditions across northern Oregon into southern Washington. ...Dry/Windy... Modest mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow, coupled with deep mixing of dry boundary layer profiles, will support at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of northern Oregon into southern Washington. The strongest winds will be confined to portions of the Cascade gaps/Columbia Gorge, with ERCs across the region nearing or meeting the annual 90th percentiles. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible from east-central Nevada into western Utah, and portions of far southeast Idaho into far western Wyoming. Fuels across significant portions of the Great Basin exceed the 98th annual percentiles, and a combination of low to modest total precipitable water vapor content and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds ranging from 15 - 25 MPH will result in low precipitation efficiency with thunderstorm updrafts. This will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. ..Halbert.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA... ...Synopsis... An amplified upper trough slowly progressing eastward across central California will be responsible for supporting mixed dry/wet thunderstorms across portions of northern California into southern Oregon, critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southern and central Nevada, and for pushing enough monsoonal moisture into portions of Arizona, Utah, and southeastern Idaho to support lightning over dry fuels. ...Central/Southern Nevada... Deep boundary layer mixing below strong meridional mid-level flow will result in dry and windy conditions that overlap with fuels receptive to wildfire spread (ERCs at or exceeding the 90th annual percentile). Relative humidity of 5-10% coupled with 25 MPH winds, possibly gusting to 30 MPH, are anticipated across portions of central and southern Nevada -- warranting the introduction of Critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of northern California into southern and eastern Oregon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within deep inverted-v boundary-layer profiles with total precipitable water content between 0.5 - 0.75 in, and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds of 15-20 MPH. With ERC percentiles climbing to the 70th-80th annual percentiles, lightning over dry fuels with little wetting precipitation will pose a fire-weather risk. Further east across portions of northern Arizona, western/central Utah, and far southeastern Idaho, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected. ERC fuel percentiles are more significant across this region, ranging from the 90th annual percentiles to exceeding the 98th annual percentiles across large portions of the region. With total precipitable water vapor content forecast between 0.5 and 0.8 inches resulting in lower precipitation efficiency, dry lightning ignitions will be possible. ..Halbert.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA... ...Synopsis... An amplified upper trough slowly progressing eastward across central California will be responsible for supporting mixed dry/wet thunderstorms across portions of northern California into southern Oregon, critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southern and central Nevada, and for pushing enough monsoonal moisture into portions of Arizona, Utah, and southeastern Idaho to support lightning over dry fuels. ...Central/Southern Nevada... Deep boundary layer mixing below strong meridional mid-level flow will result in dry and windy conditions that overlap with fuels receptive to wildfire spread (ERCs at or exceeding the 90th annual percentile). Relative humidity of 5-10% coupled with 25 MPH winds, possibly gusting to 30 MPH, are anticipated across portions of central and southern Nevada -- warranting the introduction of Critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of northern California into southern and eastern Oregon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within deep inverted-v boundary-layer profiles with total precipitable water content between 0.5 - 0.75 in, and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds of 15-20 MPH. With ERC percentiles climbing to the 70th-80th annual percentiles, lightning over dry fuels with little wetting precipitation will pose a fire-weather risk. Further east across portions of northern Arizona, western/central Utah, and far southeastern Idaho, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected. ERC fuel percentiles are more significant across this region, ranging from the 90th annual percentiles to exceeding the 98th annual percentiles across large portions of the region. With total precipitable water vapor content forecast between 0.5 and 0.8 inches resulting in lower precipitation efficiency, dry lightning ignitions will be possible. ..Halbert.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA... ...Synopsis... An amplified upper trough slowly progressing eastward across central California will be responsible for supporting mixed dry/wet thunderstorms across portions of northern California into southern Oregon, critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southern and central Nevada, and for pushing enough monsoonal moisture into portions of Arizona, Utah, and southeastern Idaho to support lightning over dry fuels. ...Central/Southern Nevada... Deep boundary layer mixing below strong meridional mid-level flow will result in dry and windy conditions that overlap with fuels receptive to wildfire spread (ERCs at or exceeding the 90th annual percentile). Relative humidity of 5-10% coupled with 25 MPH winds, possibly gusting to 30 MPH, are anticipated across portions of central and southern Nevada -- warranting the introduction of Critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of northern California into southern and eastern Oregon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within deep inverted-v boundary-layer profiles with total precipitable water content between 0.5 - 0.75 in, and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds of 15-20 MPH. With ERC percentiles climbing to the 70th-80th annual percentiles, lightning over dry fuels with little wetting precipitation will pose a fire-weather risk. Further east across portions of northern Arizona, western/central Utah, and far southeastern Idaho, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected. ERC fuel percentiles are more significant across this region, ranging from the 90th annual percentiles to exceeding the 98th annual percentiles across large portions of the region. With total precipitable water vapor content forecast between 0.5 and 0.8 inches resulting in lower precipitation efficiency, dry lightning ignitions will be possible. ..Halbert.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA... ...Synopsis... An amplified upper trough slowly progressing eastward across central California will be responsible for supporting mixed dry/wet thunderstorms across portions of northern California into southern Oregon, critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southern and central Nevada, and for pushing enough monsoonal moisture into portions of Arizona, Utah, and southeastern Idaho to support lightning over dry fuels. ...Central/Southern Nevada... Deep boundary layer mixing below strong meridional mid-level flow will result in dry and windy conditions that overlap with fuels receptive to wildfire spread (ERCs at or exceeding the 90th annual percentile). Relative humidity of 5-10% coupled with 25 MPH winds, possibly gusting to 30 MPH, are anticipated across portions of central and southern Nevada -- warranting the introduction of Critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of northern California into southern and eastern Oregon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within deep inverted-v boundary-layer profiles with total precipitable water content between 0.5 - 0.75 in, and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds of 15-20 MPH. With ERC percentiles climbing to the 70th-80th annual percentiles, lightning over dry fuels with little wetting precipitation will pose a fire-weather risk. Further east across portions of northern Arizona, western/central Utah, and far southeastern Idaho, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected. ERC fuel percentiles are more significant across this region, ranging from the 90th annual percentiles to exceeding the 98th annual percentiles across large portions of the region. With total precipitable water vapor content forecast between 0.5 and 0.8 inches resulting in lower precipitation efficiency, dry lightning ignitions will be possible. ..Halbert.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more