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MD 1527 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1527 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...portions of central/southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302101Z - 302230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms expected in the next 1-2 hours, with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds/severe hail. Watch issuance not anticipated but conditions will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a zone of rapidly developing convection along a residual outflow boundary across central/southwest Oklahoma. Additional convection is now deepening across parts of northwest Texas. Rich low-level moisture (70s+ Tds) and surface temperatures into the low 90s are contributing to a very unstable environment south of the boundary, characterized by MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg. The expectation is for scattered storms to develop along this corridor in the next 1-2 hours, posing a risk for at least isolated damaging wind gusts and severe hail. At this time, watch issuance is not anticipated though convective trends will be closely monitored should a watch be needed. ..Karstens/Hart.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 35009602 34469706 33869797 33009923 32890003 33490052 34599918 35419803 35819668 35659595 35009602 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...portions of central/southern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302003Z - 302200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar shows a few areas of robust, terrain-driven convection, mainly across central/northern portions of New Mexico with some merging of convection beginning to occur. These storms initiated amid strong morning insolation and sufficient boundary layer moisture for destabilization, characterized by dew point temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s F. These conditions have led to MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg and strong low-level lapse rates, exceeding 8-9 C in most areas. Storms are expected to continue merging and gradually move off the high terrain and drift south with time. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. ..Karstens/Hart.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 33160872 33580892 34060861 34920790 35670636 35630556 34570533 33000560 32580595 32390702 32730821 33160872 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 20:42:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 21:22:18 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 20:42:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 20:42:30 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 473 WTPZ41 KNHC 302041 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 Flossie's satellite presentation has continued to improve throughout the day, with convective cold cloud tops near -80C over the low-level center, and well-defined curve banding features. An earlier scatterometer pass around 1629 UTC showed a peak wind of 47 kt, and helped to refine the current tropical-storm-force wind radii. Latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, including a T/3.5 from TAFB. Given the satellite trends, the intensity is set to 55 kt closes to UW-CIMSS ADT and the TAFB Dvorak estimates. The storm is within a favorable environment to continue strengthening, current SSTs are around 29-30C, with low vertical wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the higher end of the guidance envelope and now has a peak intensity of 90 kt, closest to the regional hurricane HAFS models. In about 48 h, environmental conditions become increasingly more hostile, with drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures, which should induce a steady weakening trend. By day 4, Flossie is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone as the system will struggle to produce convection within the harsh environment. The initial estimated motion is toward the northwest, or 305/10 kt. A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected throughout the forecast period steered by a mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the left and lies closest to the HCCA corrected consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie should bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, later today through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 16.2N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 17.0N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 18.8N 108.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 21.0N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 22.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1800Z 24.9N 114.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 124 FOPZ11 KNHC 302040 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 10(21) 1(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 10 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 12 13(25) 3(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) L CARDENAS 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) 42(71) 16(87) X(87) X(87) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 19(48) X(48) X(48) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 24(37) 11(48) X(48) X(48) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 073 WTPZ21 KNHC 302040 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.6W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.6W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 105.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.8N 108.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.0N 111.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.9N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.9N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 103.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 074 WTPZ31 KNHC 302040 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 103.6W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 103.6 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwest to west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...FLOSSIE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Mon Jun 30 the center of Flossie was located near 16.2, -103.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 10(21) 1(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 10 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 12 13(25) 3(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) L CARDENAS 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) 42(71) 16(87) X(87) X(87) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 19(48) X(48) X(48) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 24(37) 11(48) X(48) X(48) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY NNNN

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...20Z Update... Forecast scenario remains unchanged. See active Mesoscale Discussions and the prior Outlook discussion below. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. Read more