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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant accelerating mid-level flow will support stronger onshore flow into western OR/WA. Stronger gap winds through the Columbia Gorge along with enhanced downslope drying into the Columbia Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the area Wednesday in conjunction with dry fuels. Thunderstorm development is expected again Wednesday across northern CA into southeastern/eastern OR. Northeast storm motions to the northeast of 25-30 mph will limit precipitation duration although ignition efficiency may be limited owing to limited fuel receptiveness, precluding dry thunderstorm highlights for Wednesday. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough slowly progressing across portions of central California will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough located further north over British Columbia will provide support for dry/windy conditions across northern Oregon into southern Washington. ...Dry/Windy... Modest mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow, coupled with deep mixing of dry boundary layer profiles, will support at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of northern Oregon into southern Washington. The strongest winds will be confined to portions of the Cascade gaps/Columbia Gorge, with ERCs across the region nearing or meeting the annual 90th percentiles. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible from east-central Nevada into western Utah, and portions of far southeast Idaho into far western Wyoming. Fuels across significant portions of the Great Basin exceed the 98th annual percentiles, and a combination of low to modest total precipitable water vapor content and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds ranging from 15 - 25 MPH will result in low precipitation efficiency with thunderstorm updrafts. This will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant accelerating mid-level flow will support stronger onshore flow into western OR/WA. Stronger gap winds through the Columbia Gorge along with enhanced downslope drying into the Columbia Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the area Wednesday in conjunction with dry fuels. Thunderstorm development is expected again Wednesday across northern CA into southeastern/eastern OR. Northeast storm motions to the northeast of 25-30 mph will limit precipitation duration although ignition efficiency may be limited owing to limited fuel receptiveness, precluding dry thunderstorm highlights for Wednesday. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough slowly progressing across portions of central California will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough located further north over British Columbia will provide support for dry/windy conditions across northern Oregon into southern Washington. ...Dry/Windy... Modest mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow, coupled with deep mixing of dry boundary layer profiles, will support at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of northern Oregon into southern Washington. The strongest winds will be confined to portions of the Cascade gaps/Columbia Gorge, with ERCs across the region nearing or meeting the annual 90th percentiles. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible from east-central Nevada into western Utah, and portions of far southeast Idaho into far western Wyoming. Fuels across significant portions of the Great Basin exceed the 98th annual percentiles, and a combination of low to modest total precipitable water vapor content and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds ranging from 15 - 25 MPH will result in low precipitation efficiency with thunderstorm updrafts. This will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant accelerating mid-level flow will support stronger onshore flow into western OR/WA. Stronger gap winds through the Columbia Gorge along with enhanced downslope drying into the Columbia Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the area Wednesday in conjunction with dry fuels. Thunderstorm development is expected again Wednesday across northern CA into southeastern/eastern OR. Northeast storm motions to the northeast of 25-30 mph will limit precipitation duration although ignition efficiency may be limited owing to limited fuel receptiveness, precluding dry thunderstorm highlights for Wednesday. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough slowly progressing across portions of central California will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough located further north over British Columbia will provide support for dry/windy conditions across northern Oregon into southern Washington. ...Dry/Windy... Modest mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow, coupled with deep mixing of dry boundary layer profiles, will support at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of northern Oregon into southern Washington. The strongest winds will be confined to portions of the Cascade gaps/Columbia Gorge, with ERCs across the region nearing or meeting the annual 90th percentiles. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible from east-central Nevada into western Utah, and portions of far southeast Idaho into far western Wyoming. Fuels across significant portions of the Great Basin exceed the 98th annual percentiles, and a combination of low to modest total precipitable water vapor content and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds ranging from 15 - 25 MPH will result in low precipitation efficiency with thunderstorm updrafts. This will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant accelerating mid-level flow will support stronger onshore flow into western OR/WA. Stronger gap winds through the Columbia Gorge along with enhanced downslope drying into the Columbia Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the area Wednesday in conjunction with dry fuels. Thunderstorm development is expected again Wednesday across northern CA into southeastern/eastern OR. Northeast storm motions to the northeast of 25-30 mph will limit precipitation duration although ignition efficiency may be limited owing to limited fuel receptiveness, precluding dry thunderstorm highlights for Wednesday. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough slowly progressing across portions of central California will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough located further north over British Columbia will provide support for dry/windy conditions across northern Oregon into southern Washington. ...Dry/Windy... Modest mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow, coupled with deep mixing of dry boundary layer profiles, will support at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of northern Oregon into southern Washington. The strongest winds will be confined to portions of the Cascade gaps/Columbia Gorge, with ERCs across the region nearing or meeting the annual 90th percentiles. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible from east-central Nevada into western Utah, and portions of far southeast Idaho into far western Wyoming. Fuels across significant portions of the Great Basin exceed the 98th annual percentiles, and a combination of low to modest total precipitable water vapor content and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds ranging from 15 - 25 MPH will result in low precipitation efficiency with thunderstorm updrafts. This will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant accelerating mid-level flow will support stronger onshore flow into western OR/WA. Stronger gap winds through the Columbia Gorge along with enhanced downslope drying into the Columbia Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the area Wednesday in conjunction with dry fuels. Thunderstorm development is expected again Wednesday across northern CA into southeastern/eastern OR. Northeast storm motions to the northeast of 25-30 mph will limit precipitation duration although ignition efficiency may be limited owing to limited fuel receptiveness, precluding dry thunderstorm highlights for Wednesday. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough slowly progressing across portions of central California will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough located further north over British Columbia will provide support for dry/windy conditions across northern Oregon into southern Washington. ...Dry/Windy... Modest mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow, coupled with deep mixing of dry boundary layer profiles, will support at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of northern Oregon into southern Washington. The strongest winds will be confined to portions of the Cascade gaps/Columbia Gorge, with ERCs across the region nearing or meeting the annual 90th percentiles. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible from east-central Nevada into western Utah, and portions of far southeast Idaho into far western Wyoming. Fuels across significant portions of the Great Basin exceed the 98th annual percentiles, and a combination of low to modest total precipitable water vapor content and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds ranging from 15 - 25 MPH will result in low precipitation efficiency with thunderstorm updrafts. This will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant accelerating mid-level flow will support stronger onshore flow into western OR/WA. Stronger gap winds through the Columbia Gorge along with enhanced downslope drying into the Columbia Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the area Wednesday in conjunction with dry fuels. Thunderstorm development is expected again Wednesday across northern CA into southeastern/eastern OR. Northeast storm motions to the northeast of 25-30 mph will limit precipitation duration although ignition efficiency may be limited owing to limited fuel receptiveness, precluding dry thunderstorm highlights for Wednesday. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough slowly progressing across portions of central California will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough located further north over British Columbia will provide support for dry/windy conditions across northern Oregon into southern Washington. ...Dry/Windy... Modest mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow, coupled with deep mixing of dry boundary layer profiles, will support at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of northern Oregon into southern Washington. The strongest winds will be confined to portions of the Cascade gaps/Columbia Gorge, with ERCs across the region nearing or meeting the annual 90th percentiles. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible from east-central Nevada into western Utah, and portions of far southeast Idaho into far western Wyoming. Fuels across significant portions of the Great Basin exceed the 98th annual percentiles, and a combination of low to modest total precipitable water vapor content and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds ranging from 15 - 25 MPH will result in low precipitation efficiency with thunderstorm updrafts. This will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant accelerating mid-level flow will support stronger onshore flow into western OR/WA. Stronger gap winds through the Columbia Gorge along with enhanced downslope drying into the Columbia Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the area Wednesday in conjunction with dry fuels. Thunderstorm development is expected again Wednesday across northern CA into southeastern/eastern OR. Northeast storm motions to the northeast of 25-30 mph will limit precipitation duration although ignition efficiency may be limited owing to limited fuel receptiveness, precluding dry thunderstorm highlights for Wednesday. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough slowly progressing across portions of central California will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough located further north over British Columbia will provide support for dry/windy conditions across northern Oregon into southern Washington. ...Dry/Windy... Modest mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow, coupled with deep mixing of dry boundary layer profiles, will support at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of northern Oregon into southern Washington. The strongest winds will be confined to portions of the Cascade gaps/Columbia Gorge, with ERCs across the region nearing or meeting the annual 90th percentiles. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible from east-central Nevada into western Utah, and portions of far southeast Idaho into far western Wyoming. Fuels across significant portions of the Great Basin exceed the 98th annual percentiles, and a combination of low to modest total precipitable water vapor content and 0 - 6 km mean wind speeds ranging from 15 - 25 MPH will result in low precipitation efficiency with thunderstorm updrafts. This will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1531 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1531 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Southeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011700Z - 011900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts, from predominately wet microbursts with slow-moving widespread thunderstorms, may produce isolated damaging winds through the rest of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are underway well to the south of the primary shortwave impulse moving east across the Upper OH Valley. With enhancement from a minor MCV near the middle TN/central KY border, guidance suggests convection will become extensive from the Cumberland Plateau to the lee of the southern Appalachians. However, greater buoyancy and boundary-layer heating should be confined to the Piedmont eastward, with the bulk of convection expected to remain relegated farther west. Overall deep-layer shear is weak, which will lend to slow-moving storms and poorly organized clusters. Still, water-loaded downdrafts in wet microbursts should support sporadic strong gusts capable of localized damaging winds. ..Grams/Mosier.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK... OHX...HUN... LAT...LON 36608017 35378066 34048335 34068457 35618641 36888589 37308403 37228299 36608017 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW AOO TO 5 SE AOO TO 15 NNE UNV. ..GRAMS..07/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-011940- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-011940- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033- 035-037-039-041-043-045-047-510-011940- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER Read more

MD 1532 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1532 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...parts of Mississippi...Alabama...and far eastern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011714Z - 011845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Strong morning insolation has allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 80s amid a very moist boundary layer, characterized by dew point temperatures into the mid 70s F. This has resulted in destabilization of the environment, yielding 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Visible satellite/radar is now indicating scattered convection developing across the region. The expectation is for storms to continue developing, maturing into the afternoon hours while spreading southeast with time. Weak deep-layer shear will limit storm organization, but given appreciable low-level lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km) and the aforementioned moist environment, periodic strong/water-loaded downdrafts can be expected with this activity, resulting in isolated wind damage throughout the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. ..Karstens/Mosier.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30769023 31609087 32699075 33569008 33968949 34378826 34618725 34278614 33428547 32118571 31698602 31188685 30448889 30769023 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1530 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1530 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Northeast and southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011628Z - 011830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat from strong gusts is anticipated this afternoon across parts of the Northeast into southern New England. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is possible if a more concentrated corridor of damaging winds becomes apparent. DISCUSSION...To the north of the favored region for scattered damaging winds across southern PA/NJ this afternoon, a more isolated and lower intensity threat is anticipated. With somewhat cooler surface temperatures, outside of the Lower Hudson Valley, amid similarly weak mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE is expected to be more muted. But moderate to strong mid/upper-level speed shear will favor potential for semi-discrete convection and transient mid-level rotation, capable of small hail and generally isolated damaging winds. Bulk of morning guidance suggests a combination of lesser storm coverage and instability should modulate the overall wind threat. It is possible though that an uptick in convective intensity might occur if a cluster can approach the Lower Hudson Valley to southwest New England vicinity later this afternoon. ..Grams/Mosier.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 41707661 42267701 43167632 43497486 43237208 42247188 41297277 41707661 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 17:45:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 15:21:56 GMT

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF FLOSSIE BRUSHING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM CST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 17.5, -106.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 944 WTPZ31 KNHC 011744 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 1200 PM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF FLOSSIE BRUSHING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 106.5W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 430 MI...700 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 106.5 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, Flossie should move away from southwestern Mexico today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning, and Flossie could become a major hurricane tonight or Wednesday morning. Steady to rapid weakening is expected starting late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, for the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 17:45:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 15:21:56 GMT

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF FLOSSIE BRUSHING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM CST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 17.5, -106.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

651
ABPZ20 KNHC 011733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin around 180 miles
offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

MD 1529 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
Mesoscale Discussion 1529 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...the Mid-Atlantic States Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 011548Z - 011745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...An increasing damaging wind threat and Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance are expected this afternoon DISCUSSION...Convection has been slowly building across the central Appalachians, ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progressing east across the Upper OH Valley. While there is some near-term uncertainty of how quickly this initial activity will strengthen amid weak DCAPE, the downstream airmass east of the Blue Ridge is destabilizing well as surface temperatures have already warmed into the upper 80s to low 90s. This will yield an uptick in convective intensity as clusters impinge on the Piedmont to Coastal Plain where mid 70s surface dew points are pervasive. Although lower-level winds will remain weak and predominately veered, moderate mid to upper-level westerlies will support organized multicells capable of producing multiple strong to isolated severe gust swaths. Scattered damaging winds appear likely towards mid to late afternoon. ..Grams/Mosier.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40117372 39117452 37967617 37757901 38627929 40127907 40667848 40497568 40117372 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while tracking toward New England, with an upper ridge poised to build over the central U.S. as another mid-level trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Widespread, rich low-level moisture will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. However, the best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Here, low-level moisture and instability will best overlap with modest mid-level westerly flow along the periphery of the upper ridge, where some vertical wind shear will be present to encourage storm organization. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Through the day, surface heating will support mixing of a dry boundary layer, which may deepen to 500 mb in spots. Tropospheric lapse rates will steepen to around 9 C/km, boosting SBCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range. High-based thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating. Modest mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge will overspread the dry boundary layer, resulting in elongated, straight hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicell structures or perhaps a transient supercell will be the likely storm modes. Given the dry boundary layer, the stronger storm cores may produce a few severe gusts. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during the afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. A belt of stronger northwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Great Lakes as the eastern trough deepens in the 18-00Z time frame, contributing to vertical speed shear and elongated, straight hodographs. Over 30 kts of unidirectional effective bulk shear will support multicells capable of producing a few instances of severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest to central Michigan region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while tracking toward New England, with an upper ridge poised to build over the central U.S. as another mid-level trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Widespread, rich low-level moisture will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. However, the best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the Northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Here, low-level moisture and instability will best overlap with modest mid-level westerly flow along the periphery of the upper ridge, where some vertical wind shear will be present to encourage storm organization. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... Through the day, surface heating will support mixing of a dry boundary layer, which may deepen to 500 mb in spots. Tropospheric lapse rates will steepen to around 9 C/km, boosting SBCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range. High-based thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating. Modest mid-level flow along the periphery of the ridge will overspread the dry boundary layer, resulting in elongated, straight hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicell structures or perhaps a transient supercell will be the likely storm modes. Given the dry boundary layer, the stronger storm cores may produce a few severe gusts. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during the afternoon. Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. A belt of stronger northwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Great Lakes as the eastern trough deepens in the 18-00Z time frame, contributing to vertical speed shear and elongated, straight hodographs. Over 30 kts of unidirectional effective bulk shear will support multicells capable of producing a few instances of severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more