Aggregator

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 081 WTPZ21 KNHC 300836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 101.8W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS....105NE 15SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 101.8W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.3W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.7N 102.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.7N 106.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.4N 108.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.4N 109.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 22.7N 111.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 24.9N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 101.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MCK TO 45 NE MCK TO 5 ESE BBW TO 10 ESE BUB. ..BROYLES..06/30/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-065-089-123-137-141-147-163-183-300840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GRAHAM JEWELL MITCHELL NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS SMITH NEC001-019-035-047-059-061-063-065-073-079-081-083-093-099-121- 129-137-145-163-169-175-181-300840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY DAWSON FILLMORE FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER HALL HAMILTON HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY MERRICK NUCKOLLS PHELPS RED WILLOW SHERMAN THAYER VALLEY WEBSTER Read more

MD 1519 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1519 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...Central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 300604Z - 300830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible over the next few hours across parts of central Oklahoma. The threat should remain localized, and weather watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar data from Oklahoma City shows a short line segment, with severe wind gusts in north-central Oklahoma. This line is moving southward along the western edge of a pocket of moderate instability into an area where surface dewpoints are near 70 F. There appears to be some support on water vapor imagery, from a shortwave trough extending southwestward from the Ozarks into the southern Plains. As the cold pool associated with the line moves southward into central Oklahoma over the next few hours, isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. The greatest wind-damage potential is expected to remain focused along the western edge of the ongoing convection that is currently draped across north-central and northeast Oklahoma. ..Broyles/Smith.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 34869717 34749775 34879831 35439851 35719847 35949840 36139810 36209770 36139729 35949704 35419695 34869717 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more