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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 20:40:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 20:40:08 GMT

MD 1510 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST CO...NORTHWEST KS...FAR SOUTHWEST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1510 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...northeast CO...northwest KS...far southwest NE Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 291852Z - 292045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Initially isolated severe wind/hail threats are anticipated along the I-25 corridor in Colorado. A slow-moving QLCS, with an increasing wind threat, should evolve eastward across northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas this evening. DISCUSSION...Persistent surface northeasterlies are aiding in the advection of 50s dew points westward towards the Foothills north of the Palmer Divide. This will aid in increasing convective development off the higher terrain and across the I-25 corridor into the adjacent High Plains through this evening. Mid-level westerlies are weak to modest, but sufficient for transient mid-level rotation amid substantial veering of the wind profile with height. This type of flow regime should support outflow-dominated convection. Colliding outflows and amalgamating cells will likely yield a slow-moving MCS as they shift east towards the KS border. As this occurs, a mix of severe wind/hail may transition to primarily a severe gust threat. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 40940232 40590165 40080130 39400123 38550211 38400278 38670412 39030472 39760493 40440509 40930510 40940326 40940232 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 292037 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 Earlier SSMIS microwave data and satellite imagery depicted Flossie becoming better organized with curved banding features. However, recent imagery shows that banding has become a little more broken since the previous advisory, as Flossie is still trying to organize and consolidate. A 1600 UTC METOP-C scatterometer pass shows that the low-level center has become better defined, however was slightly south of the previously estimated position, and satellite-derived winds were around 31 kt. Using the scatterometer data and the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates T2.5, from both TAFB and SAB, the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Flossie is located within a favorable environment for strengthening with warm sea surface temperatures, plentiful moisture and low to moderate wind shear. As the system becomes better organized, steady strengthening is forecast. Rapid intensification indices remain elevated in latest SHIPS guidance, however RI is not explicitly forecast at this time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous, closest to the hurricane regional aids, but lies slightly below the HCCA corrected consensus. The current motion is estimated to be westward-northwestward around 295/7 kt. The storm is forecast moving west-northwestward with a turn towards the northwest anticipated tomorrow around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. The latest track forecast is near the previous, and lies between the simple and HCCA corrected consensus aids. Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A track even a little more to the right of the official forecast could bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep terrain. 2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for southwestern Mexico, and tropical storm warnings could be required later tonight for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 13.5N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 14.3N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 15.5N 102.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 20.0N 108.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 22.0N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 24.0N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 292037 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 23(39) 1(40) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) 1(33) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 3(20) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 27(37) 1(38) X(38) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 105W 34 1 9(10) 20(30) 3(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 27(55) 5(60) X(60) X(60) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 1 12(13) 18(31) 3(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 13(14) 9(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 100W 34 56 1(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) ACAPULCO 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P MALDONADO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 48(52) 10(62) X(62) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 3(24) X(24) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 164 WTPZ31 KNHC 292036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 ...FLOSSIE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 100.4W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 100.4 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within the watch area late Monday and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM CST Sun Jun 29 the center of Flossie was located near 13.5, -100.4 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 292035 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 100.4W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 50SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 100.4W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 100.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.3N 101.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.5N 102.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.0N 108.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N 110.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 24.0N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 100.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 479 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 479 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-031-039-069-073-075-087-095-115-121-123- 292140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD DENVER ELBERT LARIMER LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-292140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-033-047-071-081-093-102-103-292140- Read more

WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 479 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 479 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-031-039-069-073-075-087-095-115-121-123- 292140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD DENVER ELBERT LARIMER LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-292140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-033-047-071-081-093-102-103-292140- Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513. ..GRAMS..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-011-019-021-037-049-099-125-133-205-207-292140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON MOC009-011-039-043-057-077-085-097-109-119-145-167-185-209-213- 217-292140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE GREENE HICKORY JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON POLK ST. CLAIR STONE TANEY VERNON Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513. ..GRAMS..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-011-019-021-037-049-099-125-133-205-207-292140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON MOC009-011-039-043-057-077-085-097-109-119-145-167-185-209-213- 217-292140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE GREENE HICKORY JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON POLK ST. CLAIR STONE TANEY VERNON Read more

MD 1509 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN WY...THE NE PANHANDLE ...SOUTHWEST SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1509 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...eastern WY...the NE Panhandle ...southwest SD Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 291828Z - 292030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated large hail and severe gusts are likely, with scattered coverage possible by late afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is expected. DISCUSSION...Initial, lower-topped convection has formed across far southeast MT towards the Black Hills. This activity is expected to strengthen over the next couple hours amid modest MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear around 40 kts. While the parameter space is a step-down from yesterday, which should mitigate overall intensity, the coverage of storms should be greater by peak heating. Additional storms should develop within the weak upslope flow regime across southeast WY. Both areas may eventually converge in the NE Panhandle to far southwest SD vicinity by early evening. A few supercells with large hail are most likely in the northern regime surrounding the Black Hills. Severe gusts may be the primary hazard farther south where multicell clustering dominates. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 45350502 44520346 43690208 42970166 42050152 41470218 41160293 41120431 41070513 42440530 43820586 44550635 45350502 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE VOK TO 30 S ESC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512. ..MARSH..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-009-015-021-023-025-027-029-039-043-045-047-049-057-061- 065-071-077-081-083-087-097-103-111-115-123-135-137-139- 292140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALUMET COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DANE DODGE DOOR FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA JUNEAU KEWAUNEE LAFAYETTE MANITOWOC MARQUETTE MONROE OCONTO OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE RICHLAND SAUK SHAWANO VERNON WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO LMZ521-522-541-542-543-292140- CW Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE VOK TO 30 S ESC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512. ..MARSH..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-009-015-021-023-025-027-029-039-043-045-047-049-057-061- 065-071-077-081-083-087-097-103-111-115-123-135-137-139- 292140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALUMET COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DANE DODGE DOOR FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA JUNEAU KEWAUNEE LAFAYETTE MANITOWOC MARQUETTE MONROE OCONTO OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE RICHLAND SAUK SHAWANO VERNON WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO LMZ521-522-541-542-543-292140- CW Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...20Z Update... The Slight risk was expanded southeastward from parts of the central Plains into the Middle MS Valley, where a cluster of thunderstorms is intensifying as it impinges on a strongly unstable air mass. The primary concern with this activity is damaging wind gusts. For information on the severe risk here, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. Additionally, 2-percent tornado probabilities were added along this corridor and westward into southeast/south-central KS and far northeast/north-central OK. Here, antecedent outflow is diurnally destabilizing amid rich boundary-layer moisture. Clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will support a localized tornado risk with any cells that can develop in this corridor. Farther west, significant-wind probabilities were added over northwest KS, southwest NE, and far eastern CO. Any thunderstorm clusters that evolve out of CO and move through this area will have the potential of producing gusts upward of 75 mph -- aided by steep deep-layer lapse rates and sufficiently elongated hodographs. Additionally, visible satellite imagery shows a shallow boundary-layer cumulus field along a surface wind shift in this general area. As storms move into this area of enhanced moisture and steep lapse rates, a brief tornado will be possible. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 and MCD 1508 for the severe risk in the Upper Midwest, and MCDs 1509 and 1510 for the High Plains severe risk. ..Weinman.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...20Z Update... The Slight risk was expanded southeastward from parts of the central Plains into the Middle MS Valley, where a cluster of thunderstorms is intensifying as it impinges on a strongly unstable air mass. The primary concern with this activity is damaging wind gusts. For information on the severe risk here, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. Additionally, 2-percent tornado probabilities were added along this corridor and westward into southeast/south-central KS and far northeast/north-central OK. Here, antecedent outflow is diurnally destabilizing amid rich boundary-layer moisture. Clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will support a localized tornado risk with any cells that can develop in this corridor. Farther west, significant-wind probabilities were added over northwest KS, southwest NE, and far eastern CO. Any thunderstorm clusters that evolve out of CO and move through this area will have the potential of producing gusts upward of 75 mph -- aided by steep deep-layer lapse rates and sufficiently elongated hodographs. Additionally, visible satellite imagery shows a shallow boundary-layer cumulus field along a surface wind shift in this general area. As storms move into this area of enhanced moisture and steep lapse rates, a brief tornado will be possible. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 and MCD 1508 for the severe risk in the Upper Midwest, and MCDs 1509 and 1510 for the High Plains severe risk. ..Weinman.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...20Z Update... The Slight risk was expanded southeastward from parts of the central Plains into the Middle MS Valley, where a cluster of thunderstorms is intensifying as it impinges on a strongly unstable air mass. The primary concern with this activity is damaging wind gusts. For information on the severe risk here, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. Additionally, 2-percent tornado probabilities were added along this corridor and westward into southeast/south-central KS and far northeast/north-central OK. Here, antecedent outflow is diurnally destabilizing amid rich boundary-layer moisture. Clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will support a localized tornado risk with any cells that can develop in this corridor. Farther west, significant-wind probabilities were added over northwest KS, southwest NE, and far eastern CO. Any thunderstorm clusters that evolve out of CO and move through this area will have the potential of producing gusts upward of 75 mph -- aided by steep deep-layer lapse rates and sufficiently elongated hodographs. Additionally, visible satellite imagery shows a shallow boundary-layer cumulus field along a surface wind shift in this general area. As storms move into this area of enhanced moisture and steep lapse rates, a brief tornado will be possible. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 and MCD 1508 for the severe risk in the Upper Midwest, and MCDs 1509 and 1510 for the High Plains severe risk. ..Weinman.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...20Z Update... The Slight risk was expanded southeastward from parts of the central Plains into the Middle MS Valley, where a cluster of thunderstorms is intensifying as it impinges on a strongly unstable air mass. The primary concern with this activity is damaging wind gusts. For information on the severe risk here, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. Additionally, 2-percent tornado probabilities were added along this corridor and westward into southeast/south-central KS and far northeast/north-central OK. Here, antecedent outflow is diurnally destabilizing amid rich boundary-layer moisture. Clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will support a localized tornado risk with any cells that can develop in this corridor. Farther west, significant-wind probabilities were added over northwest KS, southwest NE, and far eastern CO. Any thunderstorm clusters that evolve out of CO and move through this area will have the potential of producing gusts upward of 75 mph -- aided by steep deep-layer lapse rates and sufficiently elongated hodographs. Additionally, visible satellite imagery shows a shallow boundary-layer cumulus field along a surface wind shift in this general area. As storms move into this area of enhanced moisture and steep lapse rates, a brief tornado will be possible. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 and MCD 1508 for the severe risk in the Upper Midwest, and MCDs 1509 and 1510 for the High Plains severe risk. ..Weinman.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...20Z Update... The Slight risk was expanded southeastward from parts of the central Plains into the Middle MS Valley, where a cluster of thunderstorms is intensifying as it impinges on a strongly unstable air mass. The primary concern with this activity is damaging wind gusts. For information on the severe risk here, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. Additionally, 2-percent tornado probabilities were added along this corridor and westward into southeast/south-central KS and far northeast/north-central OK. Here, antecedent outflow is diurnally destabilizing amid rich boundary-layer moisture. Clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will support a localized tornado risk with any cells that can develop in this corridor. Farther west, significant-wind probabilities were added over northwest KS, southwest NE, and far eastern CO. Any thunderstorm clusters that evolve out of CO and move through this area will have the potential of producing gusts upward of 75 mph -- aided by steep deep-layer lapse rates and sufficiently elongated hodographs. Additionally, visible satellite imagery shows a shallow boundary-layer cumulus field along a surface wind shift in this general area. As storms move into this area of enhanced moisture and steep lapse rates, a brief tornado will be possible. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 and MCD 1508 for the severe risk in the Upper Midwest, and MCDs 1509 and 1510 for the High Plains severe risk. ..Weinman.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...20Z Update... The Slight risk was expanded southeastward from parts of the central Plains into the Middle MS Valley, where a cluster of thunderstorms is intensifying as it impinges on a strongly unstable air mass. The primary concern with this activity is damaging wind gusts. For information on the severe risk here, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. Additionally, 2-percent tornado probabilities were added along this corridor and westward into southeast/south-central KS and far northeast/north-central OK. Here, antecedent outflow is diurnally destabilizing amid rich boundary-layer moisture. Clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will support a localized tornado risk with any cells that can develop in this corridor. Farther west, significant-wind probabilities were added over northwest KS, southwest NE, and far eastern CO. Any thunderstorm clusters that evolve out of CO and move through this area will have the potential of producing gusts upward of 75 mph -- aided by steep deep-layer lapse rates and sufficiently elongated hodographs. Additionally, visible satellite imagery shows a shallow boundary-layer cumulus field along a surface wind shift in this general area. As storms move into this area of enhanced moisture and steep lapse rates, a brief tornado will be possible. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 and MCD 1508 for the severe risk in the Upper Midwest, and MCDs 1509 and 1510 for the High Plains severe risk. ..Weinman.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more