Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 14:42:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 15:26:40 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 14:42:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 14:42:27 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291441 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 Convection has continued to become better organized this morning, with curved banding to the north of the low-level center. Recent infrared satellite imagery depicts that convection is bursting near the low-level center with cold cloud tops near -80C. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T2.5, from both TAFB and SAB. Using these estimates and the recent satellite trends, the intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory. Thus, the sixth named system in the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Flossie. Flossie is located within a favorable environment for strengthening with warm SSTs near 30C, moist mid-levels and low to moderate wind shear. As the system continues to become better organized, the latest NHC forecast now depicts steady strengthening, with the storm becoming a hurricane in about 36 h. While not explicitly forecast, there are some above normal SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) probabilities and there is potential for RI, which will have to be monitored in subsequent forecasts. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the higher end of the guidance envelope near the latest HCCA corrected consensus aids. The current motion is estimated to be westward around 280/8 kt, although as the inner core continues to develop there could be some short-term track adjustments. The storm is forecast to begin to move west-northwestward later today then northwestward around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. The latest track forecast is nudged slightly to the right, in between the simple consensus HCCA corrected consensus. Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A track even a little more to the right of the official forecast could bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco through early next week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep terrain. 2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for southwestern Mexico, and tropical storm warnings could be required later today or tonight for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 13.4N 99.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.1N 100.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 15.2N 102.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 16.3N 103.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 17.5N 105.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 19.8N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 21.7N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 23.9N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 291440 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 3(32) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 3(28) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 2(29) X(29) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 10(47) X(47) X(47) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 100W 34 29 15(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 100W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 14(47) X(47) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 921 WTPZ31 KNHC 291440 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 99.9W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 99.9 West. Flossie is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion should begin later today and continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early next week. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within the watch area late Monday and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Sun Jun 29 the center of Flossie was located near 13.4, -99.9 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.