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MD 1459 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1459 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465... Valid 262031Z - 262200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado will continue through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...A convective line has evolved across central into northern IA this afternoon, with other smaller clusters gradually becoming better organized into southwest IA. Deep-layer shear is rather weak, and weakens with southward extent, but unidirectional 25-35 kt southwest flow in the 1-3 km AGL layer (as noted in the KDMX VWP) could support some organized damaging-wind potential. There has been some tendency for outflow to advance ahead of the convective line, but any small bowing segments that become oriented more orthogonal to the southwesterly low/midlevel flow (such as the one across Butler/Grundy Counties, IA) could be more likely to produce localized swaths of wind damage through late afternoon. Modestly favorable effective SRH could also support a brief tornado threat. ..Dean.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 41959369 42729301 42999270 43139190 43139144 42909146 42509161 41979203 41589237 40919328 40799467 41569403 41959369 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0463 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 463 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE FRM TO 15 WNW LSE TO 25 ESE EAU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1461 ..SQUITIERI..06/26/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 463 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-037-067-089-131-191-262340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CHICKASAW FLOYD HOWARD MITCHELL WINNESHIEK MNC045-055-099-262340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FILLMORE HOUSTON MOWER WIC001-023-053-057-063-081-103-123-262340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD JACKSON Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1458 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 463... FOR PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST IA...SOUTHEAST MN...SOUTHWEST WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1458 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Areas affected...Parts of extreme northeast IA...southeast MN...southwest WI Concerning...Tornado Watch 463... Valid 261943Z - 262115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 463 continues. SUMMARY...Both an eastward-moving convective line and developing cells ahead of the line could pose a tornado threat this afternoon. Localized damaging wind is also possible. DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms has developed from southeast MN into north-central IA, with additional cells gradually developing east of the line into parts of southwest WI. MLCAPE has increased into the 1000-1500 J/kg along and immediately north of the warm front, with a more stable environment farther north, where clouds have persisted and temperatures are in the 60s F. The broken line moving across far southeast MN earlier produced a reported tornado in Freeborn County, and this portion of the line will continue to pose a tornado threat as it traverses the warm frontal zone, where low-level shear/SRH is locally enhanced (as noted in the KARX VWP). The developing cells east of the line could also begin to pose a tornado threat, especially if one or more of these cells can mature and take on more of a front-parallel motion, leading to increased residence time in the frontal zone. Cell mergers into the primary line could also result in locally increased tornado potential. Aside from the tornado potential, locally damaging wind will continue to be possible with the primary convective line as it moves eastward this afternoon. ..Dean.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 44179241 44209163 44109074 43979004 43689005 43209016 43369100 43449174 43479251 43659255 44179241 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1457 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Areas affected...portions of far northern Texas...western Oklahoma...into far southern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261911Z - 262115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms with potential for strong to severe wind possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is ongoing across far western Oklahoma this afternoon where daytime heating has allowed MLCIN to erode. Temperatures are now in the mid 80s to mid 90s with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg is noted in surface objective analysis. Though the background flow is generally weak, steep lapse rates around 8-8.5 C/km and moist profiles will support a few strong storms capable of strong to severe winds through the afternoon. Given the lack of shear for a more widespread and organized threat, a watch is unlikely to be needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34530051 35969985 37069920 37199805 37139710 36859680 36529672 36189673 35259736 34209807 34069885 34260004 34530051 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 465 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1459 ..DEAN..06/26/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ARX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-033-039-043- 049-051-053-055-065-069-071-073-075-077-079-083-095-099-107-113- 117-121-123-125-127-129-135-137-145-153-155-157-159-165-169-171- 173-175-179-181-185-187-195-197-262140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON BENTON BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CARROLL CASS CERRO GORDO CLARKE CLAYTON DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN FREMONT GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE HAMILTON HARDIN IOWA JASPER KEOKUK LINN LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MILLS MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SHELBY STORY TAMA TAYLOR Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more