Aggregator

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough progressing through ND and southern SK/MB. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over far northwestern ON, with an attendant cold front arcing from this low through the MN arrowhead and back through south-central MN, northwest IA, eastern/south-central NE to another low in northwest KS. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along this frontal zone from northeast NE into southern MN. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue northeastward through far northwest ON throughout the day, with the primary surface low also tracking northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. Gradual eastward/southeastward progress of the cold front is anticipated, although its forward progression will slow with time, particularly from the Mid MO Valley southwestward into the southern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass exists ahead of this front, with temperatures expected to reach the mid 80s to low 90s amid dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. These conditions will result in strong buoyancy and little to no convective inhibition along much of the front by 21Z. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible, but persist low-level convergence should be enough to initiate deep convection, with numerous to widespread thunderstorms anticipated. The stronger deep-layer vertical shear will lag behind the front across much of the region, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample moisture should still result in sporadic damaging gusts. There will be better overlap between the shear and buoyancy from WI into MI, and there is some chance for one or more forward-propagating line segments in this area. Some isolated hail is possible within the more robust early-stage storms. Storm mergers could also result in updrafts briefly becoming strong enough to produce hail. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon amid persistent low-level convergence within the warm, moist, and weakly sheared airmass over the region. The lack of stronger shear will result in largely outflow-dominant storm structures. Given the high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, damaging gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northern ME... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum currently over northeastern ON is forecast progress eastward through southern QC and into the Canadian Maritimes during the period. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this vorticity max, with a few stronger storms potentially glancing northern ME this evening. Moderately low to mid-level westerly flow will support the threat for some damaging gusts as these storms move through the region. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous diurnally driven thunderstorm are expected across the region today. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular pulse mode anticipated. Given the ample moisture and likelihood of storm interactions, a few strong, water-loaded downbursts are possible. Limited coverage precludes the need for any severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough progressing through ND and southern SK/MB. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over far northwestern ON, with an attendant cold front arcing from this low through the MN arrowhead and back through south-central MN, northwest IA, eastern/south-central NE to another low in northwest KS. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along this frontal zone from northeast NE into southern MN. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue northeastward through far northwest ON throughout the day, with the primary surface low also tracking northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. Gradual eastward/southeastward progress of the cold front is anticipated, although its forward progression will slow with time, particularly from the Mid MO Valley southwestward into the southern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass exists ahead of this front, with temperatures expected to reach the mid 80s to low 90s amid dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. These conditions will result in strong buoyancy and little to no convective inhibition along much of the front by 21Z. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible, but persist low-level convergence should be enough to initiate deep convection, with numerous to widespread thunderstorms anticipated. The stronger deep-layer vertical shear will lag behind the front across much of the region, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample moisture should still result in sporadic damaging gusts. There will be better overlap between the shear and buoyancy from WI into MI, and there is some chance for one or more forward-propagating line segments in this area. Some isolated hail is possible within the more robust early-stage storms. Storm mergers could also result in updrafts briefly becoming strong enough to produce hail. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon amid persistent low-level convergence within the warm, moist, and weakly sheared airmass over the region. The lack of stronger shear will result in largely outflow-dominant storm structures. Given the high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, damaging gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northern ME... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum currently over northeastern ON is forecast progress eastward through southern QC and into the Canadian Maritimes during the period. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this vorticity max, with a few stronger storms potentially glancing northern ME this evening. Moderately low to mid-level westerly flow will support the threat for some damaging gusts as these storms move through the region. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous diurnally driven thunderstorm are expected across the region today. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular pulse mode anticipated. Given the ample moisture and likelihood of storm interactions, a few strong, water-loaded downbursts are possible. Limited coverage precludes the need for any severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough progressing through ND and southern SK/MB. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over far northwestern ON, with an attendant cold front arcing from this low through the MN arrowhead and back through south-central MN, northwest IA, eastern/south-central NE to another low in northwest KS. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along this frontal zone from northeast NE into southern MN. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue northeastward through far northwest ON throughout the day, with the primary surface low also tracking northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. Gradual eastward/southeastward progress of the cold front is anticipated, although its forward progression will slow with time, particularly from the Mid MO Valley southwestward into the southern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass exists ahead of this front, with temperatures expected to reach the mid 80s to low 90s amid dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. These conditions will result in strong buoyancy and little to no convective inhibition along much of the front by 21Z. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible, but persist low-level convergence should be enough to initiate deep convection, with numerous to widespread thunderstorms anticipated. The stronger deep-layer vertical shear will lag behind the front across much of the region, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample moisture should still result in sporadic damaging gusts. There will be better overlap between the shear and buoyancy from WI into MI, and there is some chance for one or more forward-propagating line segments in this area. Some isolated hail is possible within the more robust early-stage storms. Storm mergers could also result in updrafts briefly becoming strong enough to produce hail. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon amid persistent low-level convergence within the warm, moist, and weakly sheared airmass over the region. The lack of stronger shear will result in largely outflow-dominant storm structures. Given the high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, damaging gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northern ME... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum currently over northeastern ON is forecast progress eastward through southern QC and into the Canadian Maritimes during the period. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this vorticity max, with a few stronger storms potentially glancing northern ME this evening. Moderately low to mid-level westerly flow will support the threat for some damaging gusts as these storms move through the region. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous diurnally driven thunderstorm are expected across the region today. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular pulse mode anticipated. Given the ample moisture and likelihood of storm interactions, a few strong, water-loaded downbursts are possible. Limited coverage precludes the need for any severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough progressing through ND and southern SK/MB. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over far northwestern ON, with an attendant cold front arcing from this low through the MN arrowhead and back through south-central MN, northwest IA, eastern/south-central NE to another low in northwest KS. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along this frontal zone from northeast NE into southern MN. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue northeastward through far northwest ON throughout the day, with the primary surface low also tracking northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. Gradual eastward/southeastward progress of the cold front is anticipated, although its forward progression will slow with time, particularly from the Mid MO Valley southwestward into the southern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass exists ahead of this front, with temperatures expected to reach the mid 80s to low 90s amid dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. These conditions will result in strong buoyancy and little to no convective inhibition along much of the front by 21Z. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible, but persist low-level convergence should be enough to initiate deep convection, with numerous to widespread thunderstorms anticipated. The stronger deep-layer vertical shear will lag behind the front across much of the region, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample moisture should still result in sporadic damaging gusts. There will be better overlap between the shear and buoyancy from WI into MI, and there is some chance for one or more forward-propagating line segments in this area. Some isolated hail is possible within the more robust early-stage storms. Storm mergers could also result in updrafts briefly becoming strong enough to produce hail. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon amid persistent low-level convergence within the warm, moist, and weakly sheared airmass over the region. The lack of stronger shear will result in largely outflow-dominant storm structures. Given the high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, damaging gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northern ME... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum currently over northeastern ON is forecast progress eastward through southern QC and into the Canadian Maritimes during the period. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this vorticity max, with a few stronger storms potentially glancing northern ME this evening. Moderately low to mid-level westerly flow will support the threat for some damaging gusts as these storms move through the region. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous diurnally driven thunderstorm are expected across the region today. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular pulse mode anticipated. Given the ample moisture and likelihood of storm interactions, a few strong, water-loaded downbursts are possible. Limited coverage precludes the need for any severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/23/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located a
few hundred miles offshore of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week or
over the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward
off the coast of southern Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
across portions of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, and
Guatemala through the early part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday: Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... An area of interest for severe-storm potential on Thursday resides from eastern IA/southeast MN into northern IL/southern WI. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is generally forecast to move across parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes during the afternoon, potentially accompanied by a frontal wave. While deep-layer flow will generally remain rather modest, rich low-level moisture and strong heating will support moderate to strong buoyancy along/south of the front. Strong to potentially severe storms may develop as the approaching shortwave trough impinges upon the favorable buoyancy. Uncertainty regarding frontal position and the sufficiency of deep-layer shear precludes higher confidence at this time. ...D5/Friday: Northern Plains... An area of interest for Friday resides across parts of the northern Great Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains, though considerable spread remains regarding the timing of this relatively low-amplitude shortwave and attendant cold front. The front may impinge upon strong instability across parts of the Dakotas, with scattered storm and eventual MCS development possible. Deep-layer shear may remain relatively modest, but the magnitude of instability will likely support some organized severe threat. ...D6/Saturday: Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Some continuation of severe-storm potential is possible into Saturday, potentially shifting eastward into the Upper Midwest. Spread in guidance becomes quite large at this range regarding placement of the warm sector Saturday afternoon, but strong instability and at least modest deep-layer shear could support severe storms along/east of the cold front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday: Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... An area of interest for severe-storm potential on Thursday resides from eastern IA/southeast MN into northern IL/southern WI. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is generally forecast to move across parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes during the afternoon, potentially accompanied by a frontal wave. While deep-layer flow will generally remain rather modest, rich low-level moisture and strong heating will support moderate to strong buoyancy along/south of the front. Strong to potentially severe storms may develop as the approaching shortwave trough impinges upon the favorable buoyancy. Uncertainty regarding frontal position and the sufficiency of deep-layer shear precludes higher confidence at this time. ...D5/Friday: Northern Plains... An area of interest for Friday resides across parts of the northern Great Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains, though considerable spread remains regarding the timing of this relatively low-amplitude shortwave and attendant cold front. The front may impinge upon strong instability across parts of the Dakotas, with scattered storm and eventual MCS development possible. Deep-layer shear may remain relatively modest, but the magnitude of instability will likely support some organized severe threat. ...D6/Saturday: Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Some continuation of severe-storm potential is possible into Saturday, potentially shifting eastward into the Upper Midwest. Spread in guidance becomes quite large at this range regarding placement of the warm sector Saturday afternoon, but strong instability and at least modest deep-layer shear could support severe storms along/east of the cold front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday: Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... An area of interest for severe-storm potential on Thursday resides from eastern IA/southeast MN into northern IL/southern WI. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is generally forecast to move across parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes during the afternoon, potentially accompanied by a frontal wave. While deep-layer flow will generally remain rather modest, rich low-level moisture and strong heating will support moderate to strong buoyancy along/south of the front. Strong to potentially severe storms may develop as the approaching shortwave trough impinges upon the favorable buoyancy. Uncertainty regarding frontal position and the sufficiency of deep-layer shear precludes higher confidence at this time. ...D5/Friday: Northern Plains... An area of interest for Friday resides across parts of the northern Great Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains, though considerable spread remains regarding the timing of this relatively low-amplitude shortwave and attendant cold front. The front may impinge upon strong instability across parts of the Dakotas, with scattered storm and eventual MCS development possible. Deep-layer shear may remain relatively modest, but the magnitude of instability will likely support some organized severe threat. ...D6/Saturday: Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Some continuation of severe-storm potential is possible into Saturday, potentially shifting eastward into the Upper Midwest. Spread in guidance becomes quite large at this range regarding placement of the warm sector Saturday afternoon, but strong instability and at least modest deep-layer shear could support severe storms along/east of the cold front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday: Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... An area of interest for severe-storm potential on Thursday resides from eastern IA/southeast MN into northern IL/southern WI. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is generally forecast to move across parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes during the afternoon, potentially accompanied by a frontal wave. While deep-layer flow will generally remain rather modest, rich low-level moisture and strong heating will support moderate to strong buoyancy along/south of the front. Strong to potentially severe storms may develop as the approaching shortwave trough impinges upon the favorable buoyancy. Uncertainty regarding frontal position and the sufficiency of deep-layer shear precludes higher confidence at this time. ...D5/Friday: Northern Plains... An area of interest for Friday resides across parts of the northern Great Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains, though considerable spread remains regarding the timing of this relatively low-amplitude shortwave and attendant cold front. The front may impinge upon strong instability across parts of the Dakotas, with scattered storm and eventual MCS development possible. Deep-layer shear may remain relatively modest, but the magnitude of instability will likely support some organized severe threat. ...D6/Saturday: Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Some continuation of severe-storm potential is possible into Saturday, potentially shifting eastward into the Upper Midwest. Spread in guidance becomes quite large at this range regarding placement of the warm sector Saturday afternoon, but strong instability and at least modest deep-layer shear could support severe storms along/east of the cold front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday: Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... An area of interest for severe-storm potential on Thursday resides from eastern IA/southeast MN into northern IL/southern WI. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is generally forecast to move across parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes during the afternoon, potentially accompanied by a frontal wave. While deep-layer flow will generally remain rather modest, rich low-level moisture and strong heating will support moderate to strong buoyancy along/south of the front. Strong to potentially severe storms may develop as the approaching shortwave trough impinges upon the favorable buoyancy. Uncertainty regarding frontal position and the sufficiency of deep-layer shear precludes higher confidence at this time. ...D5/Friday: Northern Plains... An area of interest for Friday resides across parts of the northern Great Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains, though considerable spread remains regarding the timing of this relatively low-amplitude shortwave and attendant cold front. The front may impinge upon strong instability across parts of the Dakotas, with scattered storm and eventual MCS development possible. Deep-layer shear may remain relatively modest, but the magnitude of instability will likely support some organized severe threat. ...D6/Saturday: Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Some continuation of severe-storm potential is possible into Saturday, potentially shifting eastward into the Upper Midwest. Spread in guidance becomes quite large at this range regarding placement of the warm sector Saturday afternoon, but strong instability and at least modest deep-layer shear could support severe storms along/east of the cold front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday: Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... An area of interest for severe-storm potential on Thursday resides from eastern IA/southeast MN into northern IL/southern WI. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is generally forecast to move across parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes during the afternoon, potentially accompanied by a frontal wave. While deep-layer flow will generally remain rather modest, rich low-level moisture and strong heating will support moderate to strong buoyancy along/south of the front. Strong to potentially severe storms may develop as the approaching shortwave trough impinges upon the favorable buoyancy. Uncertainty regarding frontal position and the sufficiency of deep-layer shear precludes higher confidence at this time. ...D5/Friday: Northern Plains... An area of interest for Friday resides across parts of the northern Great Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains, though considerable spread remains regarding the timing of this relatively low-amplitude shortwave and attendant cold front. The front may impinge upon strong instability across parts of the Dakotas, with scattered storm and eventual MCS development possible. Deep-layer shear may remain relatively modest, but the magnitude of instability will likely support some organized severe threat. ...D6/Saturday: Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Some continuation of severe-storm potential is possible into Saturday, potentially shifting eastward into the Upper Midwest. Spread in guidance becomes quite large at this range regarding placement of the warm sector Saturday afternoon, but strong instability and at least modest deep-layer shear could support severe storms along/east of the cold front. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Wednesday in a corridor from the northern High Plains into the Midwest and Northeast, and also across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge is forecast to persist across parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast on Wednesday, with some gradual weakening of the ridge expected through the forecast period. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the western and northern periphery of the ridge, from the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a slow-moving mid/upper-level low will is forecast to approach Florida from the Bahamas. ...Parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing somewhere from the north-central Plains into parts of southern MN/northern IA Wednesday morning. This system is currently expected to gradually diminish with time as the nocturnal low-level jet weakens. A localized severe could accompany this remnant MCS through part of the morning. In the wake of this MCS, diurnal heating of a richly moist environment will support strong destabilization near an outflow-reinforced front. Storm development will be possible along this front/outflow by late afternoon, with MLCAPE potentially in excess of 3000 J/kg supporting vigorous updrafts. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, though locally backed winds near the boundary could support initial supercell development, before storm clustering becomes more prominent with time. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado could accompany the strongest afternoon/evening storms. A corridor of greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the evolution of morning convection and placement of remnant surface boundaries. Farther west, a relatively moist post-frontal regime could again support strong to potentially severe storms across parts of the central/northern High Plains. There is some potential for this region to be in the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough during the afternoon and evening, making diurnal storm coverage uncertain. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for at least an isolated severe threat in the region during the afternoon and evening. ...Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered storm development will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of the lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, along/south of a cold front. While temperatures aloft will be rather warm, diurnal heating will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy. Deep-layer flow/shear is forecast to be relatively weak, but unidirectional west-northwesterly flow could support outflow-dominant clusters capable of at least isolated wind damage. ...Parts of the Southeast/Carolinas... A pocket of steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas on Wednesday. The favorable lapse rates combined with strong diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in development of strong to extreme instability by afternoon. With some further weakening of the upper ridge, storm coverage may increase compared to previous days. 20-30 kt of northeasterly flow aloft will also develop across parts of the region, to the northwest of the offshore upper low. This modestly enhanced flow could support at least transient storm organization within the very unstable environment. Damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible within this regime. Any loosely organized clustering could result in localized corridors of more concentrated wind damage. ..Dean.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Wednesday in a corridor from the northern High Plains into the Midwest and Northeast, and also across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge is forecast to persist across parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast on Wednesday, with some gradual weakening of the ridge expected through the forecast period. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the western and northern periphery of the ridge, from the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a slow-moving mid/upper-level low will is forecast to approach Florida from the Bahamas. ...Parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing somewhere from the north-central Plains into parts of southern MN/northern IA Wednesday morning. This system is currently expected to gradually diminish with time as the nocturnal low-level jet weakens. A localized severe could accompany this remnant MCS through part of the morning. In the wake of this MCS, diurnal heating of a richly moist environment will support strong destabilization near an outflow-reinforced front. Storm development will be possible along this front/outflow by late afternoon, with MLCAPE potentially in excess of 3000 J/kg supporting vigorous updrafts. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, though locally backed winds near the boundary could support initial supercell development, before storm clustering becomes more prominent with time. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado could accompany the strongest afternoon/evening storms. A corridor of greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the evolution of morning convection and placement of remnant surface boundaries. Farther west, a relatively moist post-frontal regime could again support strong to potentially severe storms across parts of the central/northern High Plains. There is some potential for this region to be in the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough during the afternoon and evening, making diurnal storm coverage uncertain. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for at least an isolated severe threat in the region during the afternoon and evening. ...Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered storm development will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of the lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, along/south of a cold front. While temperatures aloft will be rather warm, diurnal heating will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy. Deep-layer flow/shear is forecast to be relatively weak, but unidirectional west-northwesterly flow could support outflow-dominant clusters capable of at least isolated wind damage. ...Parts of the Southeast/Carolinas... A pocket of steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas on Wednesday. The favorable lapse rates combined with strong diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in development of strong to extreme instability by afternoon. With some further weakening of the upper ridge, storm coverage may increase compared to previous days. 20-30 kt of northeasterly flow aloft will also develop across parts of the region, to the northwest of the offshore upper low. This modestly enhanced flow could support at least transient storm organization within the very unstable environment. Damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible within this regime. Any loosely organized clustering could result in localized corridors of more concentrated wind damage. ..Dean.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Wednesday in a corridor from the northern High Plains into the Midwest and Northeast, and also across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge is forecast to persist across parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast on Wednesday, with some gradual weakening of the ridge expected through the forecast period. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the western and northern periphery of the ridge, from the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a slow-moving mid/upper-level low will is forecast to approach Florida from the Bahamas. ...Parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing somewhere from the north-central Plains into parts of southern MN/northern IA Wednesday morning. This system is currently expected to gradually diminish with time as the nocturnal low-level jet weakens. A localized severe could accompany this remnant MCS through part of the morning. In the wake of this MCS, diurnal heating of a richly moist environment will support strong destabilization near an outflow-reinforced front. Storm development will be possible along this front/outflow by late afternoon, with MLCAPE potentially in excess of 3000 J/kg supporting vigorous updrafts. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, though locally backed winds near the boundary could support initial supercell development, before storm clustering becomes more prominent with time. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado could accompany the strongest afternoon/evening storms. A corridor of greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the evolution of morning convection and placement of remnant surface boundaries. Farther west, a relatively moist post-frontal regime could again support strong to potentially severe storms across parts of the central/northern High Plains. There is some potential for this region to be in the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough during the afternoon and evening, making diurnal storm coverage uncertain. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for at least an isolated severe threat in the region during the afternoon and evening. ...Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered storm development will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of the lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, along/south of a cold front. While temperatures aloft will be rather warm, diurnal heating will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy. Deep-layer flow/shear is forecast to be relatively weak, but unidirectional west-northwesterly flow could support outflow-dominant clusters capable of at least isolated wind damage. ...Parts of the Southeast/Carolinas... A pocket of steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas on Wednesday. The favorable lapse rates combined with strong diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in development of strong to extreme instability by afternoon. With some further weakening of the upper ridge, storm coverage may increase compared to previous days. 20-30 kt of northeasterly flow aloft will also develop across parts of the region, to the northwest of the offshore upper low. This modestly enhanced flow could support at least transient storm organization within the very unstable environment. Damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible within this regime. Any loosely organized clustering could result in localized corridors of more concentrated wind damage. ..Dean.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Wednesday in a corridor from the northern High Plains into the Midwest and Northeast, and also across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge is forecast to persist across parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast on Wednesday, with some gradual weakening of the ridge expected through the forecast period. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the western and northern periphery of the ridge, from the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a slow-moving mid/upper-level low will is forecast to approach Florida from the Bahamas. ...Parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing somewhere from the north-central Plains into parts of southern MN/northern IA Wednesday morning. This system is currently expected to gradually diminish with time as the nocturnal low-level jet weakens. A localized severe could accompany this remnant MCS through part of the morning. In the wake of this MCS, diurnal heating of a richly moist environment will support strong destabilization near an outflow-reinforced front. Storm development will be possible along this front/outflow by late afternoon, with MLCAPE potentially in excess of 3000 J/kg supporting vigorous updrafts. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, though locally backed winds near the boundary could support initial supercell development, before storm clustering becomes more prominent with time. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado could accompany the strongest afternoon/evening storms. A corridor of greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the evolution of morning convection and placement of remnant surface boundaries. Farther west, a relatively moist post-frontal regime could again support strong to potentially severe storms across parts of the central/northern High Plains. There is some potential for this region to be in the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough during the afternoon and evening, making diurnal storm coverage uncertain. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for at least an isolated severe threat in the region during the afternoon and evening. ...Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered storm development will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of the lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, along/south of a cold front. While temperatures aloft will be rather warm, diurnal heating will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy. Deep-layer flow/shear is forecast to be relatively weak, but unidirectional west-northwesterly flow could support outflow-dominant clusters capable of at least isolated wind damage. ...Parts of the Southeast/Carolinas... A pocket of steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas on Wednesday. The favorable lapse rates combined with strong diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in development of strong to extreme instability by afternoon. With some further weakening of the upper ridge, storm coverage may increase compared to previous days. 20-30 kt of northeasterly flow aloft will also develop across parts of the region, to the northwest of the offshore upper low. This modestly enhanced flow could support at least transient storm organization within the very unstable environment. Damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible within this regime. Any loosely organized clustering could result in localized corridors of more concentrated wind damage. ..Dean.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Wednesday in a corridor from the northern High Plains into the Midwest and Northeast, and also across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge is forecast to persist across parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast on Wednesday, with some gradual weakening of the ridge expected through the forecast period. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the western and northern periphery of the ridge, from the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a slow-moving mid/upper-level low will is forecast to approach Florida from the Bahamas. ...Parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing somewhere from the north-central Plains into parts of southern MN/northern IA Wednesday morning. This system is currently expected to gradually diminish with time as the nocturnal low-level jet weakens. A localized severe could accompany this remnant MCS through part of the morning. In the wake of this MCS, diurnal heating of a richly moist environment will support strong destabilization near an outflow-reinforced front. Storm development will be possible along this front/outflow by late afternoon, with MLCAPE potentially in excess of 3000 J/kg supporting vigorous updrafts. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, though locally backed winds near the boundary could support initial supercell development, before storm clustering becomes more prominent with time. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado could accompany the strongest afternoon/evening storms. A corridor of greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the evolution of morning convection and placement of remnant surface boundaries. Farther west, a relatively moist post-frontal regime could again support strong to potentially severe storms across parts of the central/northern High Plains. There is some potential for this region to be in the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough during the afternoon and evening, making diurnal storm coverage uncertain. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for at least an isolated severe threat in the region during the afternoon and evening. ...Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered storm development will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of the lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, along/south of a cold front. While temperatures aloft will be rather warm, diurnal heating will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy. Deep-layer flow/shear is forecast to be relatively weak, but unidirectional west-northwesterly flow could support outflow-dominant clusters capable of at least isolated wind damage. ...Parts of the Southeast/Carolinas... A pocket of steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas on Wednesday. The favorable lapse rates combined with strong diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in development of strong to extreme instability by afternoon. With some further weakening of the upper ridge, storm coverage may increase compared to previous days. 20-30 kt of northeasterly flow aloft will also develop across parts of the region, to the northwest of the offshore upper low. This modestly enhanced flow could support at least transient storm organization within the very unstable environment. Damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible within this regime. Any loosely organized clustering could result in localized corridors of more concentrated wind damage. ..Dean.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Wednesday in a corridor from the northern High Plains into the Midwest and Northeast, and also across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge is forecast to persist across parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast on Wednesday, with some gradual weakening of the ridge expected through the forecast period. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the western and northern periphery of the ridge, from the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a slow-moving mid/upper-level low will is forecast to approach Florida from the Bahamas. ...Parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing somewhere from the north-central Plains into parts of southern MN/northern IA Wednesday morning. This system is currently expected to gradually diminish with time as the nocturnal low-level jet weakens. A localized severe could accompany this remnant MCS through part of the morning. In the wake of this MCS, diurnal heating of a richly moist environment will support strong destabilization near an outflow-reinforced front. Storm development will be possible along this front/outflow by late afternoon, with MLCAPE potentially in excess of 3000 J/kg supporting vigorous updrafts. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, though locally backed winds near the boundary could support initial supercell development, before storm clustering becomes more prominent with time. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado could accompany the strongest afternoon/evening storms. A corridor of greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the evolution of morning convection and placement of remnant surface boundaries. Farther west, a relatively moist post-frontal regime could again support strong to potentially severe storms across parts of the central/northern High Plains. There is some potential for this region to be in the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough during the afternoon and evening, making diurnal storm coverage uncertain. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for at least an isolated severe threat in the region during the afternoon and evening. ...Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered storm development will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of the lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, along/south of a cold front. While temperatures aloft will be rather warm, diurnal heating will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy. Deep-layer flow/shear is forecast to be relatively weak, but unidirectional west-northwesterly flow could support outflow-dominant clusters capable of at least isolated wind damage. ...Parts of the Southeast/Carolinas... A pocket of steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas on Wednesday. The favorable lapse rates combined with strong diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in development of strong to extreme instability by afternoon. With some further weakening of the upper ridge, storm coverage may increase compared to previous days. 20-30 kt of northeasterly flow aloft will also develop across parts of the region, to the northwest of the offshore upper low. This modestly enhanced flow could support at least transient storm organization within the very unstable environment. Damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible within this regime. Any loosely organized clustering could result in localized corridors of more concentrated wind damage. ..Dean.. 06/23/2025 Read more

MD 1415 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1415 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Areas affected...northeast MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 230723Z - 230900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds and marginal hail over the next few hours across parts of northeast Minnesota. DISCUSSION...A cluster of elevated storms has become somewhat better organized recently as the clusters move northeast along an instability gradient and within moderate vertical shear on the western periphery of a low-level jet. Regional 00z RAOBs and latest SPC Mesoanalysis indicated steep lapse rates are present over the region downstream from the ongoing cluster. Sporadic strong gusts and isolated marginal hail may occur with this activity. However, overall severe potential is expected to remain limited/transient and a watch is not currently expected, though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... LAT...LON 46679459 48299322 48419218 47949112 46539188 45849297 45619396 45589453 45949484 46679459 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Another day of elevated fire weather conditions is expected for parts of the intermountain West on Tuesday. An upper trough currently settling into the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley is expected to stall and slowly de-amplify over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a belt of modest mid-level flow over parts of the eastern Great Basin/western Four Corners region. Although pressure gradient winds will generally be in the mid/upper teens, diurnal heating and deep mixing of a dry air mass will promote frequent gusts between 20-35 mph across the region - especially from northern AZ into eastern UT and southern WY under a belt of somewhat stronger 700-500 mb flow. Afternoon RH minimums in the low to mid teens are expected, and coupled with dry fuels, will help support another day of elevated fire weather conditions (though transient periods of critical conditions are anticipated where stronger gusts can occur). ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday afternoon across portions of northeastern Nevada under the upper-level low. Cold temperatures aloft combined with modest mid-level moisture and strong low-level heating will support thermodynamic profiles adequate for weak convection, but perhaps limited precipitation. Given dry fuels across the region, some dry-thunderstorm risk is expected. The primary limiting factor to a more substantial dry-thunderstorm concern is slow storm motions (less than 10 knots), which should increase the probability of wetting rainfall under the convective cores. ..Moore.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Another day of elevated fire weather conditions is expected for parts of the intermountain West on Tuesday. An upper trough currently settling into the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley is expected to stall and slowly de-amplify over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a belt of modest mid-level flow over parts of the eastern Great Basin/western Four Corners region. Although pressure gradient winds will generally be in the mid/upper teens, diurnal heating and deep mixing of a dry air mass will promote frequent gusts between 20-35 mph across the region - especially from northern AZ into eastern UT and southern WY under a belt of somewhat stronger 700-500 mb flow. Afternoon RH minimums in the low to mid teens are expected, and coupled with dry fuels, will help support another day of elevated fire weather conditions (though transient periods of critical conditions are anticipated where stronger gusts can occur). ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday afternoon across portions of northeastern Nevada under the upper-level low. Cold temperatures aloft combined with modest mid-level moisture and strong low-level heating will support thermodynamic profiles adequate for weak convection, but perhaps limited precipitation. Given dry fuels across the region, some dry-thunderstorm risk is expected. The primary limiting factor to a more substantial dry-thunderstorm concern is slow storm motions (less than 10 knots), which should increase the probability of wetting rainfall under the convective cores. ..Moore.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more