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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Another day of elevated fire weather conditions is expected for parts of the intermountain West on Tuesday. An upper trough currently settling into the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley is expected to stall and slowly de-amplify over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a belt of modest mid-level flow over parts of the eastern Great Basin/western Four Corners region. Although pressure gradient winds will generally be in the mid/upper teens, diurnal heating and deep mixing of a dry air mass will promote frequent gusts between 20-35 mph across the region - especially from northern AZ into eastern UT and southern WY under a belt of somewhat stronger 700-500 mb flow. Afternoon RH minimums in the low to mid teens are expected, and coupled with dry fuels, will help support another day of elevated fire weather conditions (though transient periods of critical conditions are anticipated where stronger gusts can occur). ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday afternoon across portions of northeastern Nevada under the upper-level low. Cold temperatures aloft combined with modest mid-level moisture and strong low-level heating will support thermodynamic profiles adequate for weak convection, but perhaps limited precipitation. Given dry fuels across the region, some dry-thunderstorm risk is expected. The primary limiting factor to a more substantial dry-thunderstorm concern is slow storm motions (less than 10 knots), which should increase the probability of wetting rainfall under the convective cores. ..Moore.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Another day of elevated fire weather conditions is expected for parts of the intermountain West on Tuesday. An upper trough currently settling into the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley is expected to stall and slowly de-amplify over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a belt of modest mid-level flow over parts of the eastern Great Basin/western Four Corners region. Although pressure gradient winds will generally be in the mid/upper teens, diurnal heating and deep mixing of a dry air mass will promote frequent gusts between 20-35 mph across the region - especially from northern AZ into eastern UT and southern WY under a belt of somewhat stronger 700-500 mb flow. Afternoon RH minimums in the low to mid teens are expected, and coupled with dry fuels, will help support another day of elevated fire weather conditions (though transient periods of critical conditions are anticipated where stronger gusts can occur). ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday afternoon across portions of northeastern Nevada under the upper-level low. Cold temperatures aloft combined with modest mid-level moisture and strong low-level heating will support thermodynamic profiles adequate for weak convection, but perhaps limited precipitation. Given dry fuels across the region, some dry-thunderstorm risk is expected. The primary limiting factor to a more substantial dry-thunderstorm concern is slow storm motions (less than 10 knots), which should increase the probability of wetting rainfall under the convective cores. ..Moore.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Another day of elevated fire weather conditions is expected for parts of the intermountain West on Tuesday. An upper trough currently settling into the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley is expected to stall and slowly de-amplify over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a belt of modest mid-level flow over parts of the eastern Great Basin/western Four Corners region. Although pressure gradient winds will generally be in the mid/upper teens, diurnal heating and deep mixing of a dry air mass will promote frequent gusts between 20-35 mph across the region - especially from northern AZ into eastern UT and southern WY under a belt of somewhat stronger 700-500 mb flow. Afternoon RH minimums in the low to mid teens are expected, and coupled with dry fuels, will help support another day of elevated fire weather conditions (though transient periods of critical conditions are anticipated where stronger gusts can occur). ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday afternoon across portions of northeastern Nevada under the upper-level low. Cold temperatures aloft combined with modest mid-level moisture and strong low-level heating will support thermodynamic profiles adequate for weak convection, but perhaps limited precipitation. Given dry fuels across the region, some dry-thunderstorm risk is expected. The primary limiting factor to a more substantial dry-thunderstorm concern is slow storm motions (less than 10 knots), which should increase the probability of wetting rainfall under the convective cores. ..Moore.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Another day of elevated fire weather conditions is expected for parts of the intermountain West on Tuesday. An upper trough currently settling into the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley is expected to stall and slowly de-amplify over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a belt of modest mid-level flow over parts of the eastern Great Basin/western Four Corners region. Although pressure gradient winds will generally be in the mid/upper teens, diurnal heating and deep mixing of a dry air mass will promote frequent gusts between 20-35 mph across the region - especially from northern AZ into eastern UT and southern WY under a belt of somewhat stronger 700-500 mb flow. Afternoon RH minimums in the low to mid teens are expected, and coupled with dry fuels, will help support another day of elevated fire weather conditions (though transient periods of critical conditions are anticipated where stronger gusts can occur). ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday afternoon across portions of northeastern Nevada under the upper-level low. Cold temperatures aloft combined with modest mid-level moisture and strong low-level heating will support thermodynamic profiles adequate for weak convection, but perhaps limited precipitation. Given dry fuels across the region, some dry-thunderstorm risk is expected. The primary limiting factor to a more substantial dry-thunderstorm concern is slow storm motions (less than 10 knots), which should increase the probability of wetting rainfall under the convective cores. ..Moore.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather concerns will persist across the greater southern Great Basin and Four Corners region today as breezy conditions continue within a dry air mass. Low to mid-level flow over the Intermountain West is expect to weaken over the next 24 hours as a leading shortwave impulse ejects northward into the Canadian Prairies. A secondary, weaker shortwave will settle into the lower CO Valley through today, which will maintain southwesterly flow across the southern Great Basin and into the Four Corners region. Diurnal heating of a very dry air mass (as sampled by regional 00z RAOBs) will promote wind gusts between 20-35 mph by late afternoon, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest that sustained winds will most likely remain between 15-20 mph for most locations. Regardless, increasing rainfall deficits and antecedent dry fuels/ongoing fires will support another day of at least low-end fire weather concerns as dry/breezy conditions become more prevalent through the afternoon. ..Moore.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather concerns will persist across the greater southern Great Basin and Four Corners region today as breezy conditions continue within a dry air mass. Low to mid-level flow over the Intermountain West is expect to weaken over the next 24 hours as a leading shortwave impulse ejects northward into the Canadian Prairies. A secondary, weaker shortwave will settle into the lower CO Valley through today, which will maintain southwesterly flow across the southern Great Basin and into the Four Corners region. Diurnal heating of a very dry air mass (as sampled by regional 00z RAOBs) will promote wind gusts between 20-35 mph by late afternoon, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest that sustained winds will most likely remain between 15-20 mph for most locations. Regardless, increasing rainfall deficits and antecedent dry fuels/ongoing fires will support another day of at least low-end fire weather concerns as dry/breezy conditions become more prevalent through the afternoon. ..Moore.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather concerns will persist across the greater southern Great Basin and Four Corners region today as breezy conditions continue within a dry air mass. Low to mid-level flow over the Intermountain West is expect to weaken over the next 24 hours as a leading shortwave impulse ejects northward into the Canadian Prairies. A secondary, weaker shortwave will settle into the lower CO Valley through today, which will maintain southwesterly flow across the southern Great Basin and into the Four Corners region. Diurnal heating of a very dry air mass (as sampled by regional 00z RAOBs) will promote wind gusts between 20-35 mph by late afternoon, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest that sustained winds will most likely remain between 15-20 mph for most locations. Regardless, increasing rainfall deficits and antecedent dry fuels/ongoing fires will support another day of at least low-end fire weather concerns as dry/breezy conditions become more prevalent through the afternoon. ..Moore.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather concerns will persist across the greater southern Great Basin and Four Corners region today as breezy conditions continue within a dry air mass. Low to mid-level flow over the Intermountain West is expect to weaken over the next 24 hours as a leading shortwave impulse ejects northward into the Canadian Prairies. A secondary, weaker shortwave will settle into the lower CO Valley through today, which will maintain southwesterly flow across the southern Great Basin and into the Four Corners region. Diurnal heating of a very dry air mass (as sampled by regional 00z RAOBs) will promote wind gusts between 20-35 mph by late afternoon, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest that sustained winds will most likely remain between 15-20 mph for most locations. Regardless, increasing rainfall deficits and antecedent dry fuels/ongoing fires will support another day of at least low-end fire weather concerns as dry/breezy conditions become more prevalent through the afternoon. ..Moore.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather concerns will persist across the greater southern Great Basin and Four Corners region today as breezy conditions continue within a dry air mass. Low to mid-level flow over the Intermountain West is expect to weaken over the next 24 hours as a leading shortwave impulse ejects northward into the Canadian Prairies. A secondary, weaker shortwave will settle into the lower CO Valley through today, which will maintain southwesterly flow across the southern Great Basin and into the Four Corners region. Diurnal heating of a very dry air mass (as sampled by regional 00z RAOBs) will promote wind gusts between 20-35 mph by late afternoon, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest that sustained winds will most likely remain between 15-20 mph for most locations. Regardless, increasing rainfall deficits and antecedent dry fuels/ongoing fires will support another day of at least low-end fire weather concerns as dry/breezy conditions become more prevalent through the afternoon. ..Moore.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather concerns will persist across the greater southern Great Basin and Four Corners region today as breezy conditions continue within a dry air mass. Low to mid-level flow over the Intermountain West is expect to weaken over the next 24 hours as a leading shortwave impulse ejects northward into the Canadian Prairies. A secondary, weaker shortwave will settle into the lower CO Valley through today, which will maintain southwesterly flow across the southern Great Basin and into the Four Corners region. Diurnal heating of a very dry air mass (as sampled by regional 00z RAOBs) will promote wind gusts between 20-35 mph by late afternoon, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest that sustained winds will most likely remain between 15-20 mph for most locations. Regardless, increasing rainfall deficits and antecedent dry fuels/ongoing fires will support another day of at least low-end fire weather concerns as dry/breezy conditions become more prevalent through the afternoon. ..Moore.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN WY...NORTHEAST CO...AND PARTS OF WESTERN NE/SD... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Southwest into the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Downstream, a strong mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of Ontario and Quebec, resulting in some dampening of the persistent upper ridge over the East. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across parts of the central Plains, while the eastern portion of the front will be draped somewhere from the Midwest into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. A cold front will move southward across parts of the northern Great Lakes and Northeast/New England. ...WY/CO into western NE/SD... Increasing low-level moisture beneath generally steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization across parts of eastern WY into northeast CO. Veering wind profiles will support organized storms, and isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop from late afternoon into the evening. Large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado are all possible. Some upscale growth will be possible through the evening, which could spread at least an isolated severe threat into parts of western NE/SD. The longevity of the severe threat into Tuesday night is uncertain, due to increasing low-level stability. ...Lower MO River Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes... In the wake of morning convection, strong heating/destabilization will support development of strong to potentially severe storms from parts of eastern KS/southeast NE into the Midwest and Great Lakes, along the periphery of the upper ridge. Development will likely be focused near an outflow-influenced front, and potentially near any remnant MCVs. Deep-layer shear is expected to be relatively weak along/ahead of the front, but unidirectional southwesterly flow will support potential for outflow-driven clusters capable of locally damaging wind. Corridors of greater severe threat may eventually evolve within the broad Marginal Risk across this region, but confidence in the placement of the front and any MCVs or other vorticity maxima precludes higher probabilities at this time. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but relatively strong heating will support moderate buoyancy by afternoon across parts of the Northeast, along and ahead of the cold front. Stronger ascent and deep-layer flow will remain north of the front, but sufficient flow and steepening of low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging gusts with any strong storms across the region. Storm coverage is uncertain, but greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm development during the afternoon and evening. ...Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic... A remnant EML will gradually move southwestward along the periphery of the upper ridge across parts of the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and Southeast on Tuesday. While this will support strong buoyancy, there is a considerable amount of spread regarding storm coverage across this region Tuesday. At this time, the highest confidence in storm development is over the southern Appalachians, where deep-layer shear will be negligible underneath the upper ridge. If confidence in storm coverage increases where slightly stronger flow aloft will be present, severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN WY...NORTHEAST CO...AND PARTS OF WESTERN NE/SD... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Southwest into the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Downstream, a strong mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of Ontario and Quebec, resulting in some dampening of the persistent upper ridge over the East. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across parts of the central Plains, while the eastern portion of the front will be draped somewhere from the Midwest into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. A cold front will move southward across parts of the northern Great Lakes and Northeast/New England. ...WY/CO into western NE/SD... Increasing low-level moisture beneath generally steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization across parts of eastern WY into northeast CO. Veering wind profiles will support organized storms, and isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop from late afternoon into the evening. Large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado are all possible. Some upscale growth will be possible through the evening, which could spread at least an isolated severe threat into parts of western NE/SD. The longevity of the severe threat into Tuesday night is uncertain, due to increasing low-level stability. ...Lower MO River Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes... In the wake of morning convection, strong heating/destabilization will support development of strong to potentially severe storms from parts of eastern KS/southeast NE into the Midwest and Great Lakes, along the periphery of the upper ridge. Development will likely be focused near an outflow-influenced front, and potentially near any remnant MCVs. Deep-layer shear is expected to be relatively weak along/ahead of the front, but unidirectional southwesterly flow will support potential for outflow-driven clusters capable of locally damaging wind. Corridors of greater severe threat may eventually evolve within the broad Marginal Risk across this region, but confidence in the placement of the front and any MCVs or other vorticity maxima precludes higher probabilities at this time. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but relatively strong heating will support moderate buoyancy by afternoon across parts of the Northeast, along and ahead of the cold front. Stronger ascent and deep-layer flow will remain north of the front, but sufficient flow and steepening of low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging gusts with any strong storms across the region. Storm coverage is uncertain, but greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm development during the afternoon and evening. ...Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic... A remnant EML will gradually move southwestward along the periphery of the upper ridge across parts of the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and Southeast on Tuesday. While this will support strong buoyancy, there is a considerable amount of spread regarding storm coverage across this region Tuesday. At this time, the highest confidence in storm development is over the southern Appalachians, where deep-layer shear will be negligible underneath the upper ridge. If confidence in storm coverage increases where slightly stronger flow aloft will be present, severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN WY...NORTHEAST CO...AND PARTS OF WESTERN NE/SD... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Southwest into the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Downstream, a strong mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of Ontario and Quebec, resulting in some dampening of the persistent upper ridge over the East. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across parts of the central Plains, while the eastern portion of the front will be draped somewhere from the Midwest into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. A cold front will move southward across parts of the northern Great Lakes and Northeast/New England. ...WY/CO into western NE/SD... Increasing low-level moisture beneath generally steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization across parts of eastern WY into northeast CO. Veering wind profiles will support organized storms, and isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop from late afternoon into the evening. Large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado are all possible. Some upscale growth will be possible through the evening, which could spread at least an isolated severe threat into parts of western NE/SD. The longevity of the severe threat into Tuesday night is uncertain, due to increasing low-level stability. ...Lower MO River Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes... In the wake of morning convection, strong heating/destabilization will support development of strong to potentially severe storms from parts of eastern KS/southeast NE into the Midwest and Great Lakes, along the periphery of the upper ridge. Development will likely be focused near an outflow-influenced front, and potentially near any remnant MCVs. Deep-layer shear is expected to be relatively weak along/ahead of the front, but unidirectional southwesterly flow will support potential for outflow-driven clusters capable of locally damaging wind. Corridors of greater severe threat may eventually evolve within the broad Marginal Risk across this region, but confidence in the placement of the front and any MCVs or other vorticity maxima precludes higher probabilities at this time. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but relatively strong heating will support moderate buoyancy by afternoon across parts of the Northeast, along and ahead of the cold front. Stronger ascent and deep-layer flow will remain north of the front, but sufficient flow and steepening of low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging gusts with any strong storms across the region. Storm coverage is uncertain, but greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm development during the afternoon and evening. ...Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic... A remnant EML will gradually move southwestward along the periphery of the upper ridge across parts of the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and Southeast on Tuesday. While this will support strong buoyancy, there is a considerable amount of spread regarding storm coverage across this region Tuesday. At this time, the highest confidence in storm development is over the southern Appalachians, where deep-layer shear will be negligible underneath the upper ridge. If confidence in storm coverage increases where slightly stronger flow aloft will be present, severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN WY...NORTHEAST CO...AND PARTS OF WESTERN NE/SD... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Southwest into the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Downstream, a strong mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of Ontario and Quebec, resulting in some dampening of the persistent upper ridge over the East. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across parts of the central Plains, while the eastern portion of the front will be draped somewhere from the Midwest into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. A cold front will move southward across parts of the northern Great Lakes and Northeast/New England. ...WY/CO into western NE/SD... Increasing low-level moisture beneath generally steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization across parts of eastern WY into northeast CO. Veering wind profiles will support organized storms, and isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop from late afternoon into the evening. Large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado are all possible. Some upscale growth will be possible through the evening, which could spread at least an isolated severe threat into parts of western NE/SD. The longevity of the severe threat into Tuesday night is uncertain, due to increasing low-level stability. ...Lower MO River Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes... In the wake of morning convection, strong heating/destabilization will support development of strong to potentially severe storms from parts of eastern KS/southeast NE into the Midwest and Great Lakes, along the periphery of the upper ridge. Development will likely be focused near an outflow-influenced front, and potentially near any remnant MCVs. Deep-layer shear is expected to be relatively weak along/ahead of the front, but unidirectional southwesterly flow will support potential for outflow-driven clusters capable of locally damaging wind. Corridors of greater severe threat may eventually evolve within the broad Marginal Risk across this region, but confidence in the placement of the front and any MCVs or other vorticity maxima precludes higher probabilities at this time. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but relatively strong heating will support moderate buoyancy by afternoon across parts of the Northeast, along and ahead of the cold front. Stronger ascent and deep-layer flow will remain north of the front, but sufficient flow and steepening of low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging gusts with any strong storms across the region. Storm coverage is uncertain, but greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm development during the afternoon and evening. ...Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic... A remnant EML will gradually move southwestward along the periphery of the upper ridge across parts of the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and Southeast on Tuesday. While this will support strong buoyancy, there is a considerable amount of spread regarding storm coverage across this region Tuesday. At this time, the highest confidence in storm development is over the southern Appalachians, where deep-layer shear will be negligible underneath the upper ridge. If confidence in storm coverage increases where slightly stronger flow aloft will be present, severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN WY...NORTHEAST CO...AND PARTS OF WESTERN NE/SD... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Southwest into the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Downstream, a strong mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of Ontario and Quebec, resulting in some dampening of the persistent upper ridge over the East. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across parts of the central Plains, while the eastern portion of the front will be draped somewhere from the Midwest into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. A cold front will move southward across parts of the northern Great Lakes and Northeast/New England. ...WY/CO into western NE/SD... Increasing low-level moisture beneath generally steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization across parts of eastern WY into northeast CO. Veering wind profiles will support organized storms, and isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop from late afternoon into the evening. Large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado are all possible. Some upscale growth will be possible through the evening, which could spread at least an isolated severe threat into parts of western NE/SD. The longevity of the severe threat into Tuesday night is uncertain, due to increasing low-level stability. ...Lower MO River Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes... In the wake of morning convection, strong heating/destabilization will support development of strong to potentially severe storms from parts of eastern KS/southeast NE into the Midwest and Great Lakes, along the periphery of the upper ridge. Development will likely be focused near an outflow-influenced front, and potentially near any remnant MCVs. Deep-layer shear is expected to be relatively weak along/ahead of the front, but unidirectional southwesterly flow will support potential for outflow-driven clusters capable of locally damaging wind. Corridors of greater severe threat may eventually evolve within the broad Marginal Risk across this region, but confidence in the placement of the front and any MCVs or other vorticity maxima precludes higher probabilities at this time. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but relatively strong heating will support moderate buoyancy by afternoon across parts of the Northeast, along and ahead of the cold front. Stronger ascent and deep-layer flow will remain north of the front, but sufficient flow and steepening of low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging gusts with any strong storms across the region. Storm coverage is uncertain, but greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm development during the afternoon and evening. ...Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic... A remnant EML will gradually move southwestward along the periphery of the upper ridge across parts of the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and Southeast on Tuesday. While this will support strong buoyancy, there is a considerable amount of spread regarding storm coverage across this region Tuesday. At this time, the highest confidence in storm development is over the southern Appalachians, where deep-layer shear will be negligible underneath the upper ridge. If confidence in storm coverage increases where slightly stronger flow aloft will be present, severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN WY...NORTHEAST CO...AND PARTS OF WESTERN NE/SD... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Southwest into the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Downstream, a strong mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of Ontario and Quebec, resulting in some dampening of the persistent upper ridge over the East. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across parts of the central Plains, while the eastern portion of the front will be draped somewhere from the Midwest into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. A cold front will move southward across parts of the northern Great Lakes and Northeast/New England. ...WY/CO into western NE/SD... Increasing low-level moisture beneath generally steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization across parts of eastern WY into northeast CO. Veering wind profiles will support organized storms, and isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop from late afternoon into the evening. Large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado are all possible. Some upscale growth will be possible through the evening, which could spread at least an isolated severe threat into parts of western NE/SD. The longevity of the severe threat into Tuesday night is uncertain, due to increasing low-level stability. ...Lower MO River Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes... In the wake of morning convection, strong heating/destabilization will support development of strong to potentially severe storms from parts of eastern KS/southeast NE into the Midwest and Great Lakes, along the periphery of the upper ridge. Development will likely be focused near an outflow-influenced front, and potentially near any remnant MCVs. Deep-layer shear is expected to be relatively weak along/ahead of the front, but unidirectional southwesterly flow will support potential for outflow-driven clusters capable of locally damaging wind. Corridors of greater severe threat may eventually evolve within the broad Marginal Risk across this region, but confidence in the placement of the front and any MCVs or other vorticity maxima precludes higher probabilities at this time. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but relatively strong heating will support moderate buoyancy by afternoon across parts of the Northeast, along and ahead of the cold front. Stronger ascent and deep-layer flow will remain north of the front, but sufficient flow and steepening of low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging gusts with any strong storms across the region. Storm coverage is uncertain, but greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm development during the afternoon and evening. ...Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic... A remnant EML will gradually move southwestward along the periphery of the upper ridge across parts of the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and Southeast on Tuesday. While this will support strong buoyancy, there is a considerable amount of spread regarding storm coverage across this region Tuesday. At this time, the highest confidence in storm development is over the southern Appalachians, where deep-layer shear will be negligible underneath the upper ridge. If confidence in storm coverage increases where slightly stronger flow aloft will be present, severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN WY...NORTHEAST CO...AND PARTS OF WESTERN NE/SD... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Southwest into the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Downstream, a strong mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of Ontario and Quebec, resulting in some dampening of the persistent upper ridge over the East. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across parts of the central Plains, while the eastern portion of the front will be draped somewhere from the Midwest into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. A cold front will move southward across parts of the northern Great Lakes and Northeast/New England. ...WY/CO into western NE/SD... Increasing low-level moisture beneath generally steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization across parts of eastern WY into northeast CO. Veering wind profiles will support organized storms, and isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop from late afternoon into the evening. Large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado are all possible. Some upscale growth will be possible through the evening, which could spread at least an isolated severe threat into parts of western NE/SD. The longevity of the severe threat into Tuesday night is uncertain, due to increasing low-level stability. ...Lower MO River Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes... In the wake of morning convection, strong heating/destabilization will support development of strong to potentially severe storms from parts of eastern KS/southeast NE into the Midwest and Great Lakes, along the periphery of the upper ridge. Development will likely be focused near an outflow-influenced front, and potentially near any remnant MCVs. Deep-layer shear is expected to be relatively weak along/ahead of the front, but unidirectional southwesterly flow will support potential for outflow-driven clusters capable of locally damaging wind. Corridors of greater severe threat may eventually evolve within the broad Marginal Risk across this region, but confidence in the placement of the front and any MCVs or other vorticity maxima precludes higher probabilities at this time. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but relatively strong heating will support moderate buoyancy by afternoon across parts of the Northeast, along and ahead of the cold front. Stronger ascent and deep-layer flow will remain north of the front, but sufficient flow and steepening of low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging gusts with any strong storms across the region. Storm coverage is uncertain, but greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm development during the afternoon and evening. ...Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic... A remnant EML will gradually move southwestward along the periphery of the upper ridge across parts of the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and Southeast on Tuesday. While this will support strong buoyancy, there is a considerable amount of spread regarding storm coverage across this region Tuesday. At this time, the highest confidence in storm development is over the southern Appalachians, where deep-layer shear will be negligible underneath the upper ridge. If confidence in storm coverage increases where slightly stronger flow aloft will be present, severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... At mid-levels, an anticyclone will remain over much of the eastern U.S. today, as southwesterly flow remains over the north-central states. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys extending southwestward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization during the day. As low-level convergence increases along the front, somewhat widely spaced convection is expected to initiate. From this convection, several clusters of storms are expected to move eastward toward an axis of instability. Along and near the instability axis from northeast Kansas into southern Wisconsin, deep-layer shear is expected to be modest. However, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the afternoon, which could support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to be strongly diurnal, with the greatest threat occurring in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place today across much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central High Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability will develop ahead of the front from eastern New Mexico into southwest Kansas. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak along this corridor, the moderate instability combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat. ...Northern Maine... At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place today across northern New England, where heights will rise substantially. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across much of the Northeast, where surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 60s to the lower 70S F. As surface temperatures warm today, isolated convection initiation may occur along an axis of low-level convergence in northern Maine. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear will be in place. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the early to mid afternoon. ..Broyles/Moore.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... At mid-levels, an anticyclone will remain over much of the eastern U.S. today, as southwesterly flow remains over the north-central states. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys extending southwestward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization during the day. As low-level convergence increases along the front, somewhat widely spaced convection is expected to initiate. From this convection, several clusters of storms are expected to move eastward toward an axis of instability. Along and near the instability axis from northeast Kansas into southern Wisconsin, deep-layer shear is expected to be modest. However, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the afternoon, which could support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to be strongly diurnal, with the greatest threat occurring in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place today across much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central High Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability will develop ahead of the front from eastern New Mexico into southwest Kansas. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak along this corridor, the moderate instability combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat. ...Northern Maine... At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place today across northern New England, where heights will rise substantially. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across much of the Northeast, where surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 60s to the lower 70S F. As surface temperatures warm today, isolated convection initiation may occur along an axis of low-level convergence in northern Maine. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear will be in place. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the early to mid afternoon. ..Broyles/Moore.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... At mid-levels, an anticyclone will remain over much of the eastern U.S. today, as southwesterly flow remains over the north-central states. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys extending southwestward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization during the day. As low-level convergence increases along the front, somewhat widely spaced convection is expected to initiate. From this convection, several clusters of storms are expected to move eastward toward an axis of instability. Along and near the instability axis from northeast Kansas into southern Wisconsin, deep-layer shear is expected to be modest. However, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the afternoon, which could support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to be strongly diurnal, with the greatest threat occurring in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place today across much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central High Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability will develop ahead of the front from eastern New Mexico into southwest Kansas. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak along this corridor, the moderate instability combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat. ...Northern Maine... At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place today across northern New England, where heights will rise substantially. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across much of the Northeast, where surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 60s to the lower 70S F. As surface temperatures warm today, isolated convection initiation may occur along an axis of low-level convergence in northern Maine. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear will be in place. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the early to mid afternoon. ..Broyles/Moore.. 06/23/2025 Read more