Aggregator

995
ABPZ20 KNHC 210503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves
west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America and southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ABR TO 45 S JMS TO 60 ENE MOT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1392 ..SQUITIERI..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-051-069-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-155-167-210540- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY GRANT KITTSON MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE TRAVERSE WILKIN NDC003-005-017-019-021-027-031-035-039-045-063-067-071-073-077- 081-091-093-095-097-099-210540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BENSON CASS CAVALIER DICKEY EDDY FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRIGGS LAMOURE NELSON PEMBINA RAMSEY RANSOM RICHLAND Read more

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ABR TO 45 S JMS TO 60 ENE MOT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1392 ..SQUITIERI..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-051-069-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-155-167-210540- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY GRANT KITTSON MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE TRAVERSE WILKIN NDC003-005-017-019-021-027-031-035-039-045-063-067-071-073-077- 081-091-093-095-097-099-210540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BENSON CASS CAVALIER DICKEY EDDY FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRIGGS LAMOURE NELSON PEMBINA RAMSEY RANSOM RICHLAND Read more

MD 1390 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 448... FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 448... Valid 210308Z - 210445Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 448 continues. SUMMARY...A pair of long-lived supercells will reside within a favorable tornado environment for at least the next 1-2 hours before merging with an approaching MCS. DISCUSSION...Over the past two hours, a pair of long-lived supercells (one of which has a history of producing 2-3 inch hail and multiple tornadoes) have meandered slowly east/southeastward along the I-94 corridor and are moving towards a regional buoyancy maximum (MLCAPE estimated to be around 4000 J/kg) driven by rich low-level moisture (dewpoints in the low 70s). This rich moisture will help modulate the influence of nocturnal low-level stabilization and help maintain very buoyant near-surface parcels. Additionally, the approach of a mid-level perturbation from the west is inducing a low-level mass response that is resulting in a strengthening of the low-level jet - and consequently increasing low-level SRH - as sampled by recent KABR VWP observations. These trends suggest that the downstream environment may become increasingly supportive of tornadic supercells in the short term. Given this environment and velocity imagery from KMVX, it is estimated that strong (EF-2 to EF-3) tornadoes will remain possible. With time, these supercells will eventually merge with the approaching MCS from the west. Based on recent storm tracks, this appears most probable during the 04-05 UTC time frame, at which point the primary threat will become widespread severe winds. ..Moore.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 46269797 46399824 46629828 47089808 47249737 47259699 47159681 46799671 46579670 46429676 46239687 46159699 46099718 46269797 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 1389 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 448... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1389 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 448... Valid 210304Z - 210430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 448 continues. SUMMARY...A derecho should continue over the next few hours. 75-100 mph winds remain a concern, and a few mesovortex-generated tornadoes are possible. DISCUSSION...A mature, intense bow echo is rapidly propagating eastward across central ND at around 70 kts, and is traversing a baroclinic boundary, where over 4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 60-80 kts of effective bulk shear is present. Furthermore, these shear vectors are oriented normal to the bow echo. Several measured 75-100 mph gusts have occurred, and given the preceding ambient conditions and baroclinic boundary, this bow echo will likely continue producing significant-severe gusts over the next few hours. A derecho is in progress, so 60+ mph winds should also be occurring on a more widespread basis, as suggested by many surface observations. The best chance for scattered significant-severe gusts will be in close proximity to mesovortices, specifically where mesovortex winds align with the rear-inflow jet. A few tornadoes also cannot be ruled out with the mesovortices. ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 46389845 46149901 46040034 46120087 46290087 46610063 46870055 47180077 47610056 47780014 47659877 47309829 46879827 46389845 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...95-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0449 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0449 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0449 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0449 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E Y22 TO 25 SW BIS TO 15 W N60. WW 447 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC059-065-085-210300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORTON OLIVER SIOUX SDC031-210300- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CORSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E Y22 TO 25 SW BIS TO 15 W N60. WW 447 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC059-065-085-210300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORTON OLIVER SIOUX SDC031-210300- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CORSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E Y22 TO 25 SW BIS TO 15 W N60. WW 447 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC059-065-085-210300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORTON OLIVER SIOUX SDC031-210300- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CORSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E Y22 TO 25 SW BIS TO 15 W N60. WW 447 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC059-065-085-210300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORTON OLIVER SIOUX SDC031-210300- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CORSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E Y22 TO 25 SW BIS TO 15 W N60. WW 447 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC059-065-085-210300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORTON OLIVER SIOUX SDC031-210300- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CORSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1387 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 447...448... FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1387 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0831 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Areas affected...portions of extreme northern South Dakota into central North Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 447...448... Valid 210131Z - 210300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 447, 448 continues. SUMMARY...A mature MCS is evolving into a bow-echo, and a derecho is expected. DISCUSSION...An intense MCS, with a history of several severe gusts (including a recently measured gust at 94 mph in Grant County, ND), is in progress across western ND into far northern SD. This MCS is rapidly propagating eastward, and is demonstrating signs of a progressive cold pool and a rear-inflow jet. This MCS is morphing into an even more organized, bow-echo structure. As the bow-echo progresses eastward, it will encounter low 70s F surface dewpoints and resultant 3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE, as noted by the 01Z mesoanalysis. As such, a derecho will likely ensue as the MCS moves into this greater instability, with widespread severe winds expected to accompany this MCS, including multiple 75-100 mph burst swaths. ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 47320290 47760120 47700065 47340026 46749998 45809986 45510083 45350175 45340229 45480273 45620285 47320290 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...95-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1386 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 448... FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1386 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0815 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 448... Valid 210115Z - 210315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 448 continues. SUMMARY...A localized corridor of higher tornado and very large hail (2-3 inches) potential may be emerging across eastern North Dakota. DISCUSSION...Over the past 30-60 minutes, a lone supercell has shown signs of steady intensification and organization based on reflectivity/velocity imagery, live web feeds, and a recent report of golf ball-sized hail. Additionally, 1-minute GOES IR imagery shows additional convective towers beginning to deepen to the southwest of the initial cell within a zone of pronounced isentropic ascent. Given the extremely buoyant and strongly sheared environment, continued storm intensification appears probable over the next 1-2 hours as storms migrate north/northeast towards the Red River. Although storms may be slightly elevated at the moment given their initiation zone atop a stable stratus deck, strengthening low-level pressure perturbations will likely lead to storms becoming surface-based within the next hour or so. As this occurs, storms will likely begin ingesting the strong low-level SRH within the frontal zone (as hinted at by recent RAP soundings and a modified 00z BIS sounding), and will pose an increasing tornado threat, including the potential for a strong tornado. An increase in the low-level jet through the evening will likely bolster low-level shear with an attendant increase in the tornado risk. Additionally, the kinematic environment should be conducive for very large (2-3 inch) hail stones. This threat should remain fairly localized across east-central ND given the relatively focused initiation zone/mechanism. ..Moore.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 46429912 46729921 47089890 47589807 47679768 47639727 47569698 47449683 47229681 47039687 46859700 46709710 46559736 46409799 46359868 46359897 46429912 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 1385 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0708 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 210008Z - 210245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Watch issuance is expected this evening across eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. However, timing remains uncertain given the potential for isolated supercells ahead of a more widespread convective complex moving out of southwest North Dakota. Additionally, an upgrade to a wind-driven Moderate risk is forthcoming in the 01z Day 1 Convective Outlook for portions of the region. DISCUSSION...Discrete to semi-discrete cells developing across southwest ND are expected to spread east into eastern ND though the evening hours. As this occurs, they will encounter an increasingly moist/buoyant air mass that is currently in place across southeast ND (evident by dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s). This will promote convective intensification as the band of cells undergoes upscale growth into an organized line and begins to pose a more widespread severe wind threat, including the potential for significant wind gusts upwards of 80-90 mph. Ahead of this band, more isolated discrete supercells appear possible across southeast ND. Surface observations across the western and central Dakotas are reporting surface pressure falls on the order of 1-2 mb over the past hour, indicative of increasing broad scale ascent over the region. This ascent is also manifesting as mid-level stratus along the ND/SD border, which is coincident with a maximum in low-level theta-e advection. The stable nature of the stratus suggests that some MLCIN remains in place, but this should continue to diminish over the next couple of hours as ascent continues to spread east in tandem with a mid-level perturbation currently upstream across western ND. Latest high-res guidance suggests initiation within this regime is possible between 00-02 UTC, and any storms that can develop will likely become robust supercells given the very favorable parameter space (MLCAPE estimates between 3000-4000 J/kg and 50-60 knots of effective bulk shear). In addition to the potential for very large hail, strong low-level SRH within the warm frontal zone will also promote a tornado risk with any supercells that can develop. However, there remains some uncertainty regarding convective coverage and timing within this area given the residual capping and comparatively weaker forcing for ascent. Regardless, watch issuance is expected within the next few hours as either 1) initiation within the warm frontal zone becomes more apparent, or 2) as the convective band across western ND spreads east and intensifies. ..Moore/Smith.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45849697 45859844 45960034 46170107 46710114 47180101 47440080 47620059 48249962 48709844 48899764 48889712 48749663 48299597 47769578 47119578 46559595 46089626 45869660 45849697 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 1388 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 447... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1388 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0845 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447... Valid 210145Z - 210215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of focused, but destructive burst-swaths are possible with the apex of a bow-echo with embedded mesovortices. Gusts could exceed 100 mph, especially if the two ongoing burst swaths merge. DISCUSSION...KBIS NEXRAD data shows intense inbound velocities at the bow-echo apex, likely driven by mesovortices. In Morton County, ND, there is evidence of rear-inflow jet winds coinciding with the rotational component of flow around a leading-line/system-scale mesovortex, and it is here where the most intense winds may occur. Inbound velocities are approaching 110 kts about 2000 ft above the ground, and a 94 mph measured gust had occurred earlier. Current thinking is that two ongoing burst swaths in this area may merge. Should this occur, gusts could briefly exceed 100 mph. Furthermore, if any mesovortex circulations can intensify, a tornado is also possible. ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 46970197 47020123 46930083 46670067 46490091 46480119 46570169 46970197 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...95-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N RAP TO 30 N Y22 TO 40 WNW N60. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387 ..MOORE..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC037-057-059-065-085-210240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRANT MERCER MORTON OLIVER SIOUX SDC031-105-210240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CORSON PERKINS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N RAP TO 30 N Y22 TO 40 WNW N60. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387 ..MOORE..06/21/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC037-057-059-065-085-210240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRANT MERCER MORTON OLIVER SIOUX SDC031-105-210240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CORSON PERKINS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more