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MD 1384 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 447... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1384 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Montana...southwestern North Dakota...far northwest South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447... Valid 202314Z - 210045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail will accompany ongoing supercells and multicells over the next few hours. Upscale growth into an MCS may eventually occur. Should this occur, conditions are favorable for bow-echo development with a high-end severe wind threat. DISCUSSION...A band of multicells and supercells continues to track eastward across far southeastern Montana, atop an unstable boundary layer and strong vertical wind shear. 22Z mesoanalysis and a special 2055Z ICECHIP sounding depict well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, with large, curved, and elongated hodographs supporting around or over 50 kts of effective bulk shear with 250+ effective SRH. Ahead of these storms, low-level moisture increases substantially, especially around central ND, where mesoanalysis depicts well over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. As such, the ongoing storms should continue eastward with a threat for severe wind and hail in the short-term. A tornado is also possible with any discrete supercells given strong low-level shear, especially after 01Z, when the storms are poised to move into better low-level moisture. It is unclear if and/or when these storms merge cold pools and grow upscale into a singular MCS. Surface observations and mesoanalysis depict multiple surface and/or low-level boundaries in place that may aid in upscale growth. However, a plethora of earlier and recent CAM guidance diverges in their solutions regarding later evolution of ongoing storms. Some members show storms remaining as supercells, with others depicting the development of an MCS. Should the later scenario occur, the very steep mid-level lapse rates and aforementioned vertical shear profile would highly support bow echo development with efficient severe wind production, including the possibility of multiple 75+ mph wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 45740496 46500520 46920516 47380457 47500387 47420204 46820095 45960068 45540137 45350236 45250333 45170388 45170431 45740496 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 1384 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 447... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1384 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Montana...southwestern North Dakota...far northwest South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447... Valid 202314Z - 210045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail will accompany ongoing supercells and multicells over the next few hours. Upscale growth into an MCS may eventually occur. Should this occur, conditions are favorable for bow-echo development with a high-end severe wind threat. DISCUSSION...A band of multicells and supercells continues to track eastward across far southeastern Montana, atop an unstable boundary layer and strong vertical wind shear. 22Z mesoanalysis and a special 2055Z ICECHIP sounding depict well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, with large, curved, and elongated hodographs supporting around or over 50 kts of effective bulk shear with 250+ effective SRH. Ahead of these storms, low-level moisture increases substantially, especially around central ND, where mesoanalysis depicts well over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. As such, the ongoing storms should continue eastward with a threat for severe wind and hail in the short-term. A tornado is also possible with any discrete supercells given strong low-level shear, especially after 01Z, when the storms are poised to move into better low-level moisture. It is unclear if and/or when these storms merge cold pools and grow upscale into a singular MCS. Surface observations and mesoanalysis depict multiple surface and/or low-level boundaries in place that may aid in upscale growth. However, a plethora of earlier and recent CAM guidance diverges in their solutions regarding later evolution of ongoing storms. Some members show storms remaining as supercells, with others depicting the development of an MCS. Should the later scenario occur, the very steep mid-level lapse rates and aforementioned vertical shear profile would highly support bow echo development with efficient severe wind production, including the possibility of multiple 75+ mph wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 45740496 46500520 46920516 47380457 47500387 47420204 46820095 45960068 45540137 45350236 45250333 45170388 45170431 45740496 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

Hoot–owl restrictions were in effect on the upper Madison River above Hebgen Lake, according to Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks. The hoot–owl restrictions prohibit fishing from 2 p.m. to midnight each day. These restrictions began Thursday, June 19, and will stay in effect until conditions improve. Daily Montanan (Helena, Mont.), June 20, 2025

The Poweshiek Water Association enacted mandatory water conservation orders at the start of March for Tama and Amana systems, just like in 2024. The water association planned to drill new wells in Tama and Amana in July Iowa Capital Dispatch (Des Moines, Iowa), June 18, 2025

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves
west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America and southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE 4BQ TO 25 WSW BHK TO 20 E GDV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384 ..SQUITIERI..06/20/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-025-109-210040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER FALLON WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-025-033-037-041-057-059-065-085-087-089-210040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER MERCER MORTON OLIVER SIOUX SLOPE STARK SDC031-063-105-210040- SD Read more

WW 447 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD 202050Z - 210300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 447 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Fri Jun 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Southwest North Dakota Northwest South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop this afternoon over southeast Montana and track eastward through the early evening. Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds appear to be the main concern. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Broadus MT to 85 miles northeast of Lemmon SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

The city of Ellensburg has temporarily ceded some of its water rights to support emergency drought relief efforts in the Yakima River Basin. Ecology will compensate Ellensburg $258,000 for using no more than 43% of the water right. GoSkagit (Mount Vernon, Wash.), June 18, 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 20 22:34:09 UTC 2025.

MD 1383 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1383 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Areas affected...far eastern Montana and northwest South Dakota into central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 202024Z - 202230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to initiate over southeast Montana by 22Z, eventually organizing into a cluster or MCS as it travels into ND. Significant damaging gusts as well as large hail are forecast. DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues over the region as low pressure deepens from southeast MT into western SD. Moist low-level trajectories extend from the eastern Dakotas westward (north of the low) and into far eastern MT, where visible imagery indicates increase CU fields. Meanwhile, an impressive surge of heated air is spreading into the area from the southwest, with many sites seeing a large jump in temperatures and wind speeds. While some warming aloft is indicated as well, the continued westward influx of moisture and surface heating will result in an uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with initiation likely by late afternoon. Indications are that convection over southeast MT will grow over the next few hours, with cells producing hail and gusty winds. With time, this activity should develop into a severe MCS, with increasing threat of significant wind gusts as well as continued threat of hail. As such, a watch will likely be needed soon. ..Jewell/Hart.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 45240386 45330514 45750548 46240538 46520474 46800280 47770036 47779970 47499932 47059911 46359928 45880017 45430155 45260277 45240386 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Several periods of Elevated to near Critical fire weather conditions are possible as weak troughing remains across the western US through the period. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Sunday... A cold front will move in across the Southwest and usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity across much of the Great Basin on Day 3/Sunday. As a result, fire weather concerns will shift eastward into the Four Corners region. Farther west, dry northerly flow in the wake of a cold front will continue to support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the California Central Valley and into portions of the Sierra Madre and San Rafael Mountains D3/Sunday. ...Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western U.S. early next week, with occasional daytime elevated winds across portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona. Dry and breezy conditions will persist, with dry fuels aiding in increased wildfire spread potential. Moisture will steadily increase into western New Mexico and southern Arizona as early as Day 4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. ...Day 6-8/Wednesday-Friday... The upper-level will weaken by mid-week with primarily weak mid and upper-level flow, leading to more localized terrain driven breezes. A shortwave late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. Monsoonal moisture will steadily increase across New Mexico. Dry thunderstorm threats may increase on the periphery of this deep moisture but confidence remains low, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Several periods of Elevated to near Critical fire weather conditions are possible as weak troughing remains across the western US through the period. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Sunday... A cold front will move in across the Southwest and usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity across much of the Great Basin on Day 3/Sunday. As a result, fire weather concerns will shift eastward into the Four Corners region. Farther west, dry northerly flow in the wake of a cold front will continue to support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the California Central Valley and into portions of the Sierra Madre and San Rafael Mountains D3/Sunday. ...Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western U.S. early next week, with occasional daytime elevated winds across portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona. Dry and breezy conditions will persist, with dry fuels aiding in increased wildfire spread potential. Moisture will steadily increase into western New Mexico and southern Arizona as early as Day 4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. ...Day 6-8/Wednesday-Friday... The upper-level will weaken by mid-week with primarily weak mid and upper-level flow, leading to more localized terrain driven breezes. A shortwave late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. Monsoonal moisture will steadily increase across New Mexico. Dry thunderstorm threats may increase on the periphery of this deep moisture but confidence remains low, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Several periods of Elevated to near Critical fire weather conditions are possible as weak troughing remains across the western US through the period. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Sunday... A cold front will move in across the Southwest and usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity across much of the Great Basin on Day 3/Sunday. As a result, fire weather concerns will shift eastward into the Four Corners region. Farther west, dry northerly flow in the wake of a cold front will continue to support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the California Central Valley and into portions of the Sierra Madre and San Rafael Mountains D3/Sunday. ...Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western U.S. early next week, with occasional daytime elevated winds across portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona. Dry and breezy conditions will persist, with dry fuels aiding in increased wildfire spread potential. Moisture will steadily increase into western New Mexico and southern Arizona as early as Day 4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. ...Day 6-8/Wednesday-Friday... The upper-level will weaken by mid-week with primarily weak mid and upper-level flow, leading to more localized terrain driven breezes. A shortwave late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. Monsoonal moisture will steadily increase across New Mexico. Dry thunderstorm threats may increase on the periphery of this deep moisture but confidence remains low, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Several periods of Elevated to near Critical fire weather conditions are possible as weak troughing remains across the western US through the period. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Sunday... A cold front will move in across the Southwest and usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity across much of the Great Basin on Day 3/Sunday. As a result, fire weather concerns will shift eastward into the Four Corners region. Farther west, dry northerly flow in the wake of a cold front will continue to support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the California Central Valley and into portions of the Sierra Madre and San Rafael Mountains D3/Sunday. ...Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western U.S. early next week, with occasional daytime elevated winds across portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona. Dry and breezy conditions will persist, with dry fuels aiding in increased wildfire spread potential. Moisture will steadily increase into western New Mexico and southern Arizona as early as Day 4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. ...Day 6-8/Wednesday-Friday... The upper-level will weaken by mid-week with primarily weak mid and upper-level flow, leading to more localized terrain driven breezes. A shortwave late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. Monsoonal moisture will steadily increase across New Mexico. Dry thunderstorm threats may increase on the periphery of this deep moisture but confidence remains low, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Several periods of Elevated to near Critical fire weather conditions are possible as weak troughing remains across the western US through the period. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Sunday... A cold front will move in across the Southwest and usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity across much of the Great Basin on Day 3/Sunday. As a result, fire weather concerns will shift eastward into the Four Corners region. Farther west, dry northerly flow in the wake of a cold front will continue to support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the California Central Valley and into portions of the Sierra Madre and San Rafael Mountains D3/Sunday. ...Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western U.S. early next week, with occasional daytime elevated winds across portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona. Dry and breezy conditions will persist, with dry fuels aiding in increased wildfire spread potential. Moisture will steadily increase into western New Mexico and southern Arizona as early as Day 4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. ...Day 6-8/Wednesday-Friday... The upper-level will weaken by mid-week with primarily weak mid and upper-level flow, leading to more localized terrain driven breezes. A shortwave late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. Monsoonal moisture will steadily increase across New Mexico. Dry thunderstorm threats may increase on the periphery of this deep moisture but confidence remains low, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Several periods of Elevated to near Critical fire weather conditions are possible as weak troughing remains across the western US through the period. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Sunday... A cold front will move in across the Southwest and usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity across much of the Great Basin on Day 3/Sunday. As a result, fire weather concerns will shift eastward into the Four Corners region. Farther west, dry northerly flow in the wake of a cold front will continue to support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the California Central Valley and into portions of the Sierra Madre and San Rafael Mountains D3/Sunday. ...Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western U.S. early next week, with occasional daytime elevated winds across portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona. Dry and breezy conditions will persist, with dry fuels aiding in increased wildfire spread potential. Moisture will steadily increase into western New Mexico and southern Arizona as early as Day 4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. ...Day 6-8/Wednesday-Friday... The upper-level will weaken by mid-week with primarily weak mid and upper-level flow, leading to more localized terrain driven breezes. A shortwave late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. Monsoonal moisture will steadily increase across New Mexico. Dry thunderstorm threats may increase on the periphery of this deep moisture but confidence remains low, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Several periods of Elevated to near Critical fire weather conditions are possible as weak troughing remains across the western US through the period. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Sunday... A cold front will move in across the Southwest and usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity across much of the Great Basin on Day 3/Sunday. As a result, fire weather concerns will shift eastward into the Four Corners region. Farther west, dry northerly flow in the wake of a cold front will continue to support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the California Central Valley and into portions of the Sierra Madre and San Rafael Mountains D3/Sunday. ...Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western U.S. early next week, with occasional daytime elevated winds across portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona. Dry and breezy conditions will persist, with dry fuels aiding in increased wildfire spread potential. Moisture will steadily increase into western New Mexico and southern Arizona as early as Day 4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. ...Day 6-8/Wednesday-Friday... The upper-level will weaken by mid-week with primarily weak mid and upper-level flow, leading to more localized terrain driven breezes. A shortwave late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. Monsoonal moisture will steadily increase across New Mexico. Dry thunderstorm threats may increase on the periphery of this deep moisture but confidence remains low, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Several periods of Elevated to near Critical fire weather conditions are possible as weak troughing remains across the western US through the period. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Sunday... A cold front will move in across the Southwest and usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity across much of the Great Basin on Day 3/Sunday. As a result, fire weather concerns will shift eastward into the Four Corners region. Farther west, dry northerly flow in the wake of a cold front will continue to support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the California Central Valley and into portions of the Sierra Madre and San Rafael Mountains D3/Sunday. ...Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western U.S. early next week, with occasional daytime elevated winds across portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona. Dry and breezy conditions will persist, with dry fuels aiding in increased wildfire spread potential. Moisture will steadily increase into western New Mexico and southern Arizona as early as Day 4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. ...Day 6-8/Wednesday-Friday... The upper-level will weaken by mid-week with primarily weak mid and upper-level flow, leading to more localized terrain driven breezes. A shortwave late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. Monsoonal moisture will steadily increase across New Mexico. Dry thunderstorm threats may increase on the periphery of this deep moisture but confidence remains low, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Several periods of Elevated to near Critical fire weather conditions are possible as weak troughing remains across the western US through the period. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Sunday... A cold front will move in across the Southwest and usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity across much of the Great Basin on Day 3/Sunday. As a result, fire weather concerns will shift eastward into the Four Corners region. Farther west, dry northerly flow in the wake of a cold front will continue to support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the California Central Valley and into portions of the Sierra Madre and San Rafael Mountains D3/Sunday. ...Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western U.S. early next week, with occasional daytime elevated winds across portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona. Dry and breezy conditions will persist, with dry fuels aiding in increased wildfire spread potential. Moisture will steadily increase into western New Mexico and southern Arizona as early as Day 4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. ...Day 6-8/Wednesday-Friday... The upper-level will weaken by mid-week with primarily weak mid and upper-level flow, leading to more localized terrain driven breezes. A shortwave late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. Monsoonal moisture will steadily increase across New Mexico. Dry thunderstorm threats may increase on the periphery of this deep moisture but confidence remains low, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Several periods of Elevated to near Critical fire weather conditions are possible as weak troughing remains across the western US through the period. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Sunday... A cold front will move in across the Southwest and usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity across much of the Great Basin on Day 3/Sunday. As a result, fire weather concerns will shift eastward into the Four Corners region. Farther west, dry northerly flow in the wake of a cold front will continue to support at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the California Central Valley and into portions of the Sierra Madre and San Rafael Mountains D3/Sunday. ...Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western U.S. early next week, with occasional daytime elevated winds across portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona. Dry and breezy conditions will persist, with dry fuels aiding in increased wildfire spread potential. Moisture will steadily increase into western New Mexico and southern Arizona as early as Day 4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. ...Day 6-8/Wednesday-Friday... The upper-level will weaken by mid-week with primarily weak mid and upper-level flow, leading to more localized terrain driven breezes. A shortwave late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. Monsoonal moisture will steadily increase across New Mexico. Dry thunderstorm threats may increase on the periphery of this deep moisture but confidence remains low, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more